Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.</li>
<li>TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.</li>
<li>We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.</li>
</ul>


Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news we expected and other analysts expected already factored into the share price. We believe the risk/reward not attractive here.
TSMC guides stronger 1Q24 and 2024, helped by Nvidia and copy cat AI GPU/ASIC orders. We see greater opportunities for alternative copy cat solutions like AMD and Alchip.
We attribute Nvidia customers' sales discrepancy to AI server is cannibalizing non-AI server and Nvidia is allocating more GPUs to premium price paying customers in 1H24 and reverse in 2H24.


From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

<ul>
<li>Blended ASP of decline of 1% q/q in the past two quarters in 2H23, better than 3-10% q/q decline during 3Q22-2Q23, resulting in Tesla's blended ASP decline to decelerate. </li>
<li>Due to Tesla's cost cutting efforts with nice inventory control, we calculates profits/EV rebounded nicely by 21% q/q to US$3,490 per EV in 4Q23, much nicer than no profits.</li>
<li>Good improvement on its FSD Beta version 12.1.2 lately might become a pure profits/EV boost by incremental subscription of US$10,000-15,000 per EV or monthly fee by existing Tesla owners.</li>
</ul>


Blended ASP of decline of 1% q/q in the past two quarters in 2H23, better than 3-10% q/q decline during 3Q22-2Q23, resulting in Tesla's blended ASP decline to decelerate. 
Due to Tesla's cost cutting efforts with nice inventory control, we calculates profits/EV rebounded nicely by 21% q/q to US$3,490 per EV in 4Q23, much nicer than no profits.
Good improvement on its FSD Beta version 12.1.2 lately might become a pure profits/EV boost by incremental subscription of US$10,000-15,000 per EV or monthly fee by existing Tesla owners.


Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

Understand How Markets Actually Work, Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Marc Rudajev

Understand How Markets Actually Work

Learning.Investing.Thriving.

Learning.Investing.Thriving. is built on a simple idea: If you want to build wealth, you need more than stock tips. You need to understand how markets actually work.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &amp; Doom Report, took the stage to give a keynote. He said something that has never left me.</li>
<li>He told the room that if he had made only three decisions in his entire investing career (which started about 25 years prior), he would have beaten the returns he actually earned running money for a living.</li>
<li>Three decisions, once a decade, and peace of mind in Chiangmai (where Marc lives).</li>
</ul>


Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &amp; Doom Report, took the stage to give a keynote. He said something that has never left me.
He told the room that if he had made only three decisions in his entire investing career (which started about 25 years prior), he would have beaten the returns he actually earned running money for a living.
Three decisions, once a decade, and peace of mind in Chiangmai (where Marc lives).


Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>1H result was mixed; revenue went up, but operating income was -57% YoY caused by EV margin contraction. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> shut down its solar roof tiles, which was supposed to be a high-margin business due to a variety of reasons, including phasing out of <strong>Clean Energy Credit. </strong>
</li>
<li>It has set a date for the Cybercap launch 3rd Sept 2026 that will push the share price up. Cover some of your short now to lock in your profit.</li>
</ul>


1H result was mixed; revenue went up, but operating income was -57% YoY caused by EV margin contraction. 

Tesla (TSLA US) shut down its solar roof tiles, which was supposed to be a high-margin business due to a variety of reasons, including phasing out of Clean Energy Credit. 

It has set a date for the Cybercap launch 3rd Sept 2026 that will push the share price up. Cover some of your short now to lock in your profit.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla (TSLA US)</a> reported a sharp contrast between revenue growth and margin erosion. The statewide approval is efficient, but it will not happen next year either. </li>
<li>The management warned of high CapEx that will keep free cash flow under pressure. </li>
<li>No indication of turnaround yet; thus, it is not too late to short the stock. </li>
</ul>



Tesla (TSLA US) reported a sharp contrast between revenue growth and margin erosion. The statewide approval is efficient, but it will not happen next year either. 
The management warned of high CapEx that will keep free cash flow under pressure. 
No indication of turnaround yet; thus, it is not too late to short the stock. 


United States

Tesla Inc. operates as a multinational automotive and clean energy company. The Company designs and manufactures electric vehicles, battery energy storage from home to grid-scale, solar panels and solar roof tiles, and related products and services. Tesla owns its sales and service network and sells electric power train components to other automobile manufacturers.

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Tesla (TSLA US)

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV. Due to pricing stability and Tesla's cost cutting efforts, profits/EV...

Andrew Lu

Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &...

Marc Rudajev

Tesla (TSLA): Still a Short, But...

Still a short, but the imminent Cybercab launch date will push share price up. Please cover your shorts temporarily. You can always re-initiate...

Henry Soediarko

Tesla (TSLA): High CapEx on Sight

Tesla reported revenue growth but margin erosion, with high CapEx keeping free cash flow under pressure. Not too late to short the stock.

Henry Soediarko

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories?

From Nvidia Results to See Supply Chain Stories? Post 35% price gain in a quarter, many good news already factored into the share price. We...

Andrew Lu

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV

Good Entry Point as Tesla Stabilizes Its 4Q23 Asp and Profits Per EV. Due to pricing stability and Tesla's cost cutting efforts, profits/EV...

Andrew Lu

Episode 57: One Decision a Year To Outperform The S&P

Sometime in the early 2000s I was sitting in a ballroom at the CLSA conference in Hong Kong and Marc Faber, the author of the famed Gloom, Boom &...

Marc Rudajev

Tesla (TSLA): Still a Short, But...

Still a short, but the imminent Cybercab launch date will push share price up. Please cover your shorts temporarily. You can always re-initiate...

Henry Soediarko

Tesla (TSLA): High CapEx on Sight

​Tesla reported revenue growth but margin erosion, with high CapEx keeping free cash flow under pressure. Not too late to short the stock.

Henry Soediarko

Tesla reported revenue growth but margin erosion, with high CapEx keeping free cash flow under pressure. Not too late to short the stock.