Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.</li>
<li>The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the December 2025 index rebal event.
We expect two changes for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and five changes for ASX 200.
The official index changes will be announced after the close on Friday 5th December 2025.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In<a href="https://skr.ma/4E7Ql" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths</a>, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.</li>
<li>The US and Australia will each "provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months"</li>
<li>Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arafura-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16550:1" rel="noopener">Arafura Resources (ARU AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


In Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths, I expected some critical mineral deals would be struck when Aussie PM Albanese and Trump met. And that is what unfolded.
The US and Australia will each "provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects in Australia and the U.S. over the next six months"
Separately, Albanese announced two priority projects in Australia, including Arafura Resources (ARU AU). 


The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals

<ul>
<li>As discussed in my April note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/206202/%20https:/skr.ma/aXdzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports</a>, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths - to all countries.</li>
<li>Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.</li>
<li>The US recently struck a deal <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.</li>
</ul>


As discussed in my April note Know Your Rare Earth Elements As China Restricts Exports, China escalated restrictions on the export of rare earths - to all countries.
Last week, China ramped up export controls on five additional rare earths; in tandem with related technologies.
The US recently struck a deal MP Materials (MP US) on light rare earths. The possibility of the US taking equity stakes in Australian processing projects could become a reality.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)</a>'s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.</li>
<li>The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.</li>
<li>There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.</li>
</ul>



Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)'s stock price has more than doubled in the last few months as equity markets rally, the rare earth boom continues, and export restrictions are imposed.
The significant increase in market cap and free float market cap should result in the stock being added to a global index in November.
There will be positioning for the inclusion (and that partly explains the recent run-up in the stock). But with export controls continuing, there could be further upside.


Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Bell Potter Securities

Bell Potter Securities is a leading Australian stockbroking, investment and financial advisory firm that provides a comprehensive offering of financial services to individuals, institutions and corporations. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>LYC highlighted the ‘Towards 2030’ strategy which includes two pillars 1) Harvest: returns through optimisation of the Lynas 2025 strategy and ramping current capacity in-line with current demand and 2) Grow: adding resource and scale, increasing separation capacity and expanding into the downstream ex-China metal and magnets sector.</li><li>Following the A$750m placement the business has ~A$902m in liquidity, addressing issues of balance sheet stress and providing a platform to begin funding its strategic goals.</li><li>Details on expansion potential are vague, which makes assessing the likely capital requirements of various ventures difficult. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

LYC highlighted the ‘Towards 2030’ strategy which includes two pillars 1) Harvest: returns through optimisation of the Lynas 2025 strategy and ramping current capacity in-line with current demand and 2) Grow: adding resource and scale, increasing separation capacity and expanding into the downstream ex-China metal and magnets sector.Following the A$750m placement the business has ~A$902m in liquidity, addressing issues of balance sheet stress and providing a platform to begin funding its strategic goals.Details on expansion potential are vague, which makes assessing the likely capital requirements of various ventures difficult. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC): Priced for perfection

Australia

Lynas Corporation Limited explores and mines for rare earth minerals such as cerium and neodymium.

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Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec25: LNW Float Revision; Gold Names Rally; More Surprises Possible

There are some changes to our list of expected ADDs and DELs since our last insight. There are some names very close to the border and can still...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

The U.S./Aussie Bilateral Framework On Critical Minerals

Under this framework, the US and Oz will each "provide at least US$1bn in investments towards an US$$8.5bn pipeline of critical minerals projects...

David Blennerhassett

Friendshoring Aussie Rare Earths

The US already provides funding for US-based projects. But there appears scope for additional jurisdictions;. That potentially opens the door to...

David Blennerhassett

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC AU): Global Index Inclusion & Passive Flows as Rare Earths Get Rarer

Export controls on rare earths have pushed Lynas' stock higher. That should lead to global index inclusion in Nov and local index upward migration...

Brian Freitas

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC): Priced for perfection

Following the A$750m placement the business has ~A$902m in liquidity, addressing issues of balance sheet stress and providing a platform to begin...

Bell Potter

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