Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech / Equity Bottom-Up

China Northern Rare Earth Group High-Tech

<ul>
<li>CNRE (600111.SH) posted record H1 FY25 profits with strong production and margin gains.</li>
<li>The company is ramping alloy, magnet, and separation capacity into 2026 to lift downstream integration.</li>
<li>Shares have surged over 200% in 12 months, leaving valuations stretched and bubble-like.</li>
</ul>


CNRE (600111.SH) posted record H1 FY25 profits with strong production and margin gains.
The company is ramping alloy, magnet, and separation capacity into 2026 to lift downstream integration.
Shares have surged over 200% in 12 months, leaving valuations stretched and bubble-like.


CNRE (600111.SH) – H1 FY25 Beat, Downstream Expansion; Valuations Look Stretched

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light &amp; Wonder, Premier Investments.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 15th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light &amp; Wonder, Premier Investments.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Timing:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fortescue-metals-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41:1" rel="noopener">Fortescue (FMG AU)</a> is scheduled to report its FY2025 full-year results on Tuesday, 26 August 2025.</li>
<li>
Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move and the upcoming dividend. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Get the expected move, the dividend outlook, and a clear view of the post-event volatility term structure to be ready for results day.</li>
</ul>



Timing:Fortescue (FMG AU) is scheduled to report its FY2025 full-year results on Tuesday, 26 August 2025.

Highlight: The options market provides estimates for the anticipated price move and the upcoming dividend. Implied volatility is projected to decline post-event; this Insight maps the resulting term structure.

Why Read: Get the expected move, the dividend outlook, and a clear view of the post-event volatility term structure to be ready for results day.


Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.</li>
<li>If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast no inclusions to the index in September. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade of A$232m.
If there are 3 deletes as forecast, one-way turnover increases to 6.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of A$384m.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets</li>
<li>Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities</li>
<li>The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards</li>
</ul>


The prospect of jumbo US rate cuts is juicing asset markets
Overseas Capital is starting to move into domestic Chinese equities
The Precious metals ETFs are breaking out -looking at laggards


Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

Australia

Lynas Corporation Limited explores and mines for rare earth minerals such as cerium and neodymium.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU)

CNRE (600111.SH) – H1 FY25 Beat, Downstream Expansion; Valuations Look Stretched

CNRE (600111.SH) achieved record profits in H1 FY25 due to production and margin gains.However, shares have surged over 200% in the past year,...

Rahul Jain

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

Fortescue (FMG AU) to report FY2025 results on 26 August 2025. Options market anticipates price move, dividend outlook, and post-event volatility....

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CNRE (600111.SH) – H1 FY25 Beat, Downstream Expansion; Valuations Look Stretched

​CNRE (600111.SH) achieved record profits in H1 FY25 due to production and margin gains.However, shares have surged over 200% in the past year,...

Rahul Jain

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 15th): Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Liontown Resources, CAR, ANZ, Light & Wonder,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Fortescue (FMG AU) Results on 26 Aug: Expected Price Swings and Volatility Outlook

​Fortescue (FMG AU) to report FY2025 results on 26 August 2025. Options market anticipates price move, dividend outlook, and post-event volatility....

Gaudenz Schneider

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in September

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.8% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Overview #32 – International Money Starts to Flow to Chinese Domestic Markets

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the Chinese breakout and laggards in the precious metal space

Rikki Malik

CNRE (600111.SH) achieved record profits in H1 FY25 due to production and margin gains.However, shares have surged over 200% in the past year,...

Fortescue (FMG AU) to report FY2025 results on 26 August 2025. Options market anticipates price move, dividend outlook, and post-event volatility....