TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)</li>
<li>Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.</li>
<li>Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation, competition, or both. (We think both)
Operating Margin guidance cut blamed on FX, we think more likely the demand for heightened content spend due to competition.
Netflix valuation always built on a long term DCF...very sensitive to downward revisions in subscribers and ARPU...we think Netflix settles around $400 until it can disprove bear thesis.


Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elastic-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27526:1" rel="noopener">Elastic NV (ESTC US)</a>  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  </li>
<li>We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. </li>
<li>Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. </li>
</ul>



Elastic NV (ESTC US)  has grown its ARR from ~$207 million as of Jul-18 to ~$760 million today and may become a multi-billion dollar unicorn in the future.  
We like the subscription-based freemium business model, strong net expansion rate, and acceleration in revenue growth of Elastic Cloud business, which currently represents ~33% of total revenue. 
Elastic Search is one of the most popular search engines globally, and the company’s products have been downloaded more than 350 million times since 2013. 


Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

The Walt Disney Co / Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Netflix and Disney are two of the world's largest players in online audiovisual content creation and streaming services.</li><li>While Disney operates a highly diversified conglomerate that goes far beyond just streaming, the fact remains that the company's biggest growth driver today is its Disney+ streaming business where it rivals Netflix.</li><li>While Netflix is the clear market leader in streaming with the largest global subscriber base, it has been growing slower than Disney and its Originals building capability is a work-in-progress.</li></ul>

Netflix and Disney are two of the world's largest players in online audiovisual content creation and streaming services.While Disney operates a highly diversified conglomerate that goes far beyond just streaming, the fact remains that the company's biggest growth driver today is its Disney+ streaming business where it rivals Netflix.While Netflix is the clear market leader in streaming with the largest global subscriber base, it has been growing slower than Disney and its Originals building capability is a work-in-progress.

Netflix vs. Disney - The Battle of the Streaming Behemoths (12/2021)

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats, Moat Investing

Moat Investing

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats

We are a group of experienced investors that like to dig deeper into stocks to find growth stories at a reasonable price with strong economic moats. We also aim to conduct high-quality analysis by doing deep dive on valuations, key business drivers, risk/reward, and different future scenarios.

GARP with strong economic moats

<ul>
<li>We believe Disney is currently overvalued, but that changes to structure might unlock future value for the Disney Direct-to-Consumer segment.</li>
<li>Disney+’s limited content library can be the cause of disappointing subscriber growth when compared to Netflix's metrics.</li>
<li>Our analysis shows that comparing Disney DTC to Netflix is not sustainable given Disney's limited content library, that much focuses on Marvel and Star Wars, compared to Netflix's wider range.</li>
</ul>


We believe Disney is currently overvalued, but that changes to structure might unlock future value for the Disney Direct-to-Consumer segment.
Disney+’s limited content library can be the cause of disappointing subscriber growth when compared to Netflix's metrics.
Our analysis shows that comparing Disney DTC to Netflix is not sustainable given Disney's limited content library, that much focuses on Marvel and Star Wars, compared to Netflix's wider range.


Comparing Disney+ Valuation Multiples To Netflix's

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>The company has obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO.
The company has obtained investments from Baidu and Alibaba, along with other investors.
In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.


Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Trading - One of the Lowest Insti Subscriptions Yet

United States

Netflix Inc. is an Internet subscription service for watching tv shows and movies. Subscribers can instantly watch unlimited TV shows and movies streamed over the Internet to their TVs, computers and mobile devices and in the United States, subscribers can receive standard definition DVDs and Blu-ray Discs delivered to their homes.

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Netflix Inc (NFLX US)

Netflix 4Q21: Don’t Look Down

Netflix's poor 1Q subscriber guidance implies 9M net adds for 2022, well below the ~25M level investors are accustomed to, implying saturation,...

Aaron Gabin

Elastic: High-Profile Search Company With Attractive Fundamentals

Elastic is a high-profile search technology company and we believe current valuations look attractive for long-term investors

Andrei Zakharov

Netflix vs. Disney - The Battle of the Streaming Behemoths (12/2021)

Netflix and Disney are two of the world's largest players in online audiovisual content creation and streaming services. While Disney operates a...

Baptista Research

Comparing Disney+ Valuation Multiples To Netflix's

We believe Disney is currently overvalued, but that changes to structure might unlock future value for the Disney Direct-to-Consumer...

Moat Investing

Cloud Village (NetEase Music) IPO Trading - One of the Lowest Insti Subscriptions Yet

Cloud Village Inc. (CVI), also known as NetEase Music, raised around US$420m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we will talk about the trading...

Sumeet Singh

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