Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>
Market: The broader Topix Index ended the week 59 points, or -2.6%,</li>
<li>
Movers: Kusuri No Aoki Holdings shares rose sharply this week after the Japanese drugstore operator's first-quarter profit climbed (+49% yoy)</li>
<li>
Activist Watch: Dalton have also taken significant positions in Rinnai and Nitta</li>
</ul>



Market: The broader Topix Index ended the week 59 points, or -2.6%,

Movers: Kusuri No Aoki Holdings shares rose sharply this week after the Japanese drugstore operator's first-quarter profit climbed (+49% yoy)

Activist Watch: Dalton have also taken significant positions in Rinnai and Nitta


Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX Rallies supported by Bullish ARM (+25%) trading;  Markets ignore implications Producer prices; Retail sales strong;   UAW Strike Looms - GM Sweetens offer; China cuts RRR. </li>
<li>JAPAN: NKY Futs 0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Japan Corp profits not trickling down; No boost for Kishida post reshuffle; More JP firms lifting shareholder returns; Bullish Aisin MTP </li>
<li>JAPAN X: Sparx Group's Billion-Dollar Bet on Japan's Future. CEO Abe goes all in with a view of catching the start of the wave of resurgence of Japanese equities.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX Rallies supported by Bullish ARM (+25%) trading;  Markets ignore implications Producer prices; Retail sales strong;   UAW Strike Looms - GM Sweetens offer; China cuts RRR. 
JAPAN: NKY Futs 0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Japan Corp profits not trickling down; No boost for Kishida post reshuffle; More JP firms lifting shareholder returns; Bullish Aisin MTP 
JAPAN X: Sparx Group's Billion-Dollar Bet on Japan's Future. CEO Abe goes all in with a view of catching the start of the wave of resurgence of Japanese equities.


Ohayo Japan: SPX Rallies on Bullish ARM Debut; JAPAN X: Sparx Founder Retirement Trade - $2bn Fund

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)</li>
<li>The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).</li>
<li>Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today's buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.


Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco's trading at extreme levels. </li>
<li>Preceding the chart-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco's trading at extreme levels. 
Preceding the chart-heavy insight are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Japex/Inpex, Amorepacific, Wynn, Shimao, Takara, Silicon Integrated/United Micro

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>A year ago I wrote that same headline as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inpex-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20665:1" rel="noopener">Inpex Corp (1605 JP)</a> reported H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback.</li>
<li>Yesterday, Inpex reported FY2023 H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. </li>
<li>The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it is worth looking at. Then there is the event on 28 February 2024.</li>
</ul>


A year ago I wrote that same headline as Inpex Corp (1605 JP) reported H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback.
Yesterday, Inpex reported FY2023 H1 results, a change in forecasts, and a bigly buyback. 
The mechanics are the same. The impact is a bit different, but it is worth looking at. Then there is the event on 28 February 2024.


Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback (Aug 2023 Version)

Japan

INPEX CORPORATION is a holding company established through the reorganization of INPEX Corp and Teikoku Oil.  The Company manages subsidiaries that explores, produces, and sells oil and natural gas.

Price Gauge
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Inpex Corp (1605 JP)

Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

Japanese market declines as Topix Index falls 2.6%, while Kusuri No Aoki Holdings sees profit rise and Dalton takes positions in Rinnai and Nitta.

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan: SPX Rallies on Bullish ARM Debut; JAPAN X: Sparx Founder Retirement Trade - $2bn Fund

US equities rally supported buy bullish ARM debut; NKY Futs 0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Japan Corp profits not trickling down; More JP firms...

Mark Chadwick

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

StubWorld: Japex/Inpex, Amorepacific, Wynn, Shimao, Takara, Silicon Integrated/United Micro

For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco's trading at extreme levels. Inpex is the key Holdco discussed.

David Blennerhassett

Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback (Aug 2023 Version)

Inpex announced earnings and, revised its forecast upwards (for the second time this fiscal year), and announced a buyback. The buyback is big...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Weekly | Kusuri No Aoki, Inpex, Mit Motors, Rinnai

​Japanese market declines as Topix Index falls 2.6%, while Kusuri No Aoki Holdings sees profit rise and Dalton takes positions in Rinnai and Nitta.

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan: SPX Rallies on Bullish ARM Debut; JAPAN X: Sparx Founder Retirement Trade - $2bn Fund

US equities rally supported buy bullish ARM debut; NKY Futs 0.1% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Japan Corp profits not trickling down; More JP firms...

Mark Chadwick

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

We remain bullish on global equities as long as major $93 support on $ACWI continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)....

Vermilion Research

StubWorld: Japex/Inpex, Amorepacific, Wynn, Shimao, Takara, Silicon Integrated/United Micro

For a change of pace, this insight briefly canvasses a clutch of Holdco's trading at extreme levels. Inpex is the key Holdco discussed.

David Blennerhassett

Inpex (1605 JP) - Earnings, Forecasts and a BIGLY Buyback (Aug 2023 Version)

Inpex announced earnings and, revised its forecast upwards (for the second time this fiscal year), and announced a buyback. The buyback is big...

Travis Lundy

Japanese market declines as Topix Index falls 2.6%, while Kusuri No Aoki Holdings sees profit rise and Dalton takes positions in Rinnai and Nitta.