Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.</li>
<li>Seven &amp; I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.</li>
<li>The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.</li>
</ul>


Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.
Seven &amp; I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.
The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.


How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On 28 Feb, the Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Mitsubishi-readies-sale-of-stake-in-KFC-restaurant-chain-in-Japan" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> (an article I missed) <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> would seek to unload its 35% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kfc-holdings-japan-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12358:1" rel="noopener">Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP)</a> </li>
<li>The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Carlyle-nears-deal-to-buy-KFC-Japan-s-shares-from-Mitsubishi-Corp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.</li>
<li>I expect this could be a "Split Price Deal" (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).</li>
</ul>


On 28 Feb, the Nikkei reported (an article I missed) Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) would seek to unload its 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) 
The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei reported MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.
I expect this could be a "Split Price Deal" (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).


Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Ayala Corporation / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> is looking to raise US$100m via trimming a portion of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ayala-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1474:1" rel="noopener">Ayala Corporation (AC PM)</a>.</li>
<li>Despite being not explicitly well flagged, Mitsubishi had sold before back in Jan 2019, and in Mar 2018. Thus, we would argue that the deal here is somewhat expected.</li>
<li>While the deal would represent 43 days of the stock’s three month ADV, the recent selldowns by Mitsubishi had held up in the first week.</li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) is looking to raise US$100m via trimming a portion of its stake in Ayala Corporation (AC PM).
Despite being not explicitly well flagged, Mitsubishi had sold before back in Jan 2019, and in Mar 2018. Thus, we would argue that the deal here is somewhat expected.
While the deal would represent 43 days of the stock’s three month ADV, the recent selldowns by Mitsubishi had held up in the first week.


Ayala Corp Placement - While Overhang Will Exist, the Stock's Momentum Has Been Strong

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tailwinds are turning to headwinds for the Japanese Trading companies.</li>
<li>Risks rising in the short term due to JPY strength, weakening commodity prices and the upcoming US recession.</li>
<li>Massive outperformance over the last two years, most recently due to multiple expansion</li>
</ul>


Tailwinds are turning to headwinds for the Japanese Trading companies.
Risks rising in the short term due to JPY strength, weakening commodity prices and the upcoming US recession.
Massive outperformance over the last two years, most recently due to multiple expansion


Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

Japan

Mitsubishi Corporation is a general trading company.  The Company has business groups such as New Business Initiatives, IT & Electronics, Fuels, Metals, Machinery, Chemicals, Living Essentials, and Professional Services.  Mitsubishi diversifies by satellite communications through a joint venture.

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Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)

How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...

Michael Causton

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

The Nikkei reported two months ago that MitCorp would sell its 35% KFC Japan (9873) stake. Two months later, we may have a deal imminent.

Travis Lundy

Ayala Corp Placement - While Overhang Will Exist, the Stock's Momentum Has Been Strong

Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) is looking to raise US$100m via trimming a stake in Ayala Corporation (AC PM). Despite being not explicitly well flagged,...

Clarence Chu

Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

The investment thesis is starting to work as the reasoning behind the trade is playing out as the Japanese Yen strengthens.

Rikki Malik

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

​Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...

Michael Causton

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) - Deal Likely Imminent

The Nikkei reported two months ago that MitCorp would sell its 35% KFC Japan (9873) stake. Two months later, we may have a deal imminent.

Travis Lundy

Ayala Corp Placement - While Overhang Will Exist, the Stock's Momentum Has Been Strong

Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) is looking to raise US$100m via trimming a stake in Ayala Corporation (AC PM). Despite being not explicitly well flagged,...

Clarence Chu

Risks Ahead for Japanese Trading Companies. Marubeni, Mitsui, Sumitomo, Mitsubishi

The investment thesis is starting to work as the reasoning behind the trade is playing out as the Japanese Yen strengthens.

Rikki Malik

Japanese CVS are adapting retail media and expect this to be a ¥3 trillion business with highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis...