Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Feb-24, Aeon (8267) agreed with Oasis Management to buy its stake in Tsuruha Holdings (3391) and Tsuruha and Welcia Holdings (3141) would discuss a merger, details decided by end-2027.</li>
<li>On Saturday 27 December, a Jiji article said the two would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. That reason sounds wrong.</li>
<li>The language of the articles is odd but we have to take it at face value. That means we look to what might happen between here and there.</li>
</ul>


In Feb-24, Aeon (8267) agreed with Oasis Management to buy its stake in Tsuruha Holdings (3391) and Tsuruha and Welcia Holdings (3141) would discuss a merger, details decided by end-2027.
On Saturday 27 December, a Jiji article said the two would look to integrate by end-2025, now that they no longer need SEC approval. That reason sounds wrong.
The language of the articles is odd but we have to take it at face value. That means we look to what might happen between here and there.


Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Post-Covid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a> began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. </li>
<li>While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.</li>
<li>Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.</li>
</ul>


Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP) began to deliver real profit growth but 1H2024 showed it cannot rest on its laurels. 
While it’ll be happy not to be worrying about a takeover bid like its rival, Seven &amp; I, it still doesn’t have a profit machine similar to Seven Eleven Japan.
Welcia helps and so does expanding e-commerce but there is still plenty of room for cutting overhead.


Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. </li>
<li>Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.</li>
<li>The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.</li>
</ul>


Core inflation rates remain stubbornly high and real wages are still falling. 
Surveys suggest one more major round of price hikes in October but the government still thinks prices will stabilise below its 2% target by the end of the year.
The increases are lowering consumer confidence – bad news for most retailers, although major discount chains are making hay while the sun, well, doesn’t shine.


Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

<ul>
<li>There has been a long-term trend of market concentration in Japan's retail sector for more than a decade.</li>
<li>But consolidation is accelerating due to the pressures to find growth in a depopulating market and the winner takes all phenomenon which rewards the leading chains.</li>
<li>With higher growth and greater access to capital for the best retailers, the net result is dramatically higher levels of M&amp;A in sectors like drugstores and even supermarkets.  </li>
</ul>


There has been a long-term trend of market concentration in Japan's retail sector for more than a decade.
But consolidation is accelerating due to the pressures to find growth in a depopulating market and the winner takes all phenomenon which rewards the leading chains.
With higher growth and greater access to capital for the best retailers, the net result is dramatically higher levels of M&amp;A in sectors like drugstores and even supermarkets.  


Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

<ul>
<li>Retailing is booming in Japan, backed by consumers getting out and about, buying enthusiastically and enjoying Japan’s shop-focused entertainment centres once again. </li>
<li>Tourists are back in record numbers, with 3 million a month entering Japan since March and well over 30 million expected in 2024 overall.</li>
<li>Inflation remains a concern, but we’re two years into this round of price increases and consumers are becoming resigned to higher prices. FY2024 will be another excellent year.</li>
</ul>


Retailing is booming in Japan, backed by consumers getting out and about, buying enthusiastically and enjoying Japan’s shop-focused entertainment centres once again. 
Tourists are back in record numbers, with 3 million a month entering Japan since March and well over 30 million expected in 2024 overall.
Inflation remains a concern, but we’re two years into this round of price increases and consumers are becoming resigned to higher prices. FY2024 will be another excellent year.


Japan's Retail Sector Grows Faster than 1990

Japan

WELCIA HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. is a holding company established through a merger of Welcia Kanto and Takada Pharmacy.  The Group mainly operates drug chain stores which sell medicines, health foods, cosmetics, nursery items and daily necessity goods.

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Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Over the weekend, Japanese media outlets reported that Tsuruha and Welcia would advance merger plans by 2 years, merging as early as end-2025,...

Travis Lundy

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Michael Causton

Japan's Retail Sector Grows Faster than 1990

Retailing in Japan is thriving as consumers shop enthusiastically, despite concerns about inflation, and tourists return in record numbers. The...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tsuruha (3391) And Welcia (3141) To Move UP Merger to End-2025; Makes It TWO Trades in 18mos?

Over the weekend, Japanese media outlets reported that Tsuruha and Welcia would advance merger plans by 2 years, merging as early as end-2025,...

Travis Lundy

Aeon (8267JP): Sales Up, Profit Down

​Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Michael Causton

Japanese Prices Rise Again; 60% of Consumers Feeling the Pinch and Looking for Better Value

Japanese consumer markets have three big trends: higher prices/squeezed incomes, doubling of single households and more people feeling the pinch....

Michael Causton

Japan Retail: Market Concentration Accelerates Through M&A and Organic Growth

​Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Michael Causton

Japan's Retail Sector Grows Faster than 1990

​Retailing in Japan is thriving as consumers shop enthusiastically, despite concerns about inflation, and tourists return in record numbers. The...

Michael Causton

Post-Covid, Aeon Co Ltd has seen significant profit growth but must address profit challenges and overhead costs to rival Seven & I's profit...

Market concentration in Japan's retail sector has been increasing due to the need for growth in a shrinking market, leading to a surge in M&A...

Retailing in Japan is thriving as consumers shop enthusiastically, despite concerns about inflation, and tourists return in record numbers. The...