Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Thinking About Positioning Around the Tsuruha/Welcia Vote

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Shareholders Approve Tsuruha/Welcia Merger - Now It's Partial Offer+Synergies

[Japan Activism/M&A] - Closing In On the Tsuruha Partial Tender - Likely Needs To Be Higher

The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination

Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities

Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) - Tsuruha Earnings In a Week - Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Large <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> investor Orbis Investments last month <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250411005584/en/Orbis-Statement-on-Proposed-Merger-Between-Tsuruha-and-Welcia-and-Proposed-Tender-Offer-by-Aeon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said they were against</a> the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon's Oasis buy price from 2024.</li>
<li>Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250508830782/en/Orbis-Supports-ISS-Recommendation-for-Tsuruha-Shareholders-to-Vote-Against-Welcia-Merger" target="_blank" rel="noopener">apparently come out</a> recommending shareholders vote against. That's a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.</li>
<li>Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.</li>
</ul>


Large Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) investor Orbis Investments last month said they were against the Tsuruha/Welcia merger ratio. They wanted a cash takeover above Aeon's Oasis buy price from 2024.
Influential shareholder proxy advisor ISS has apparently come out recommending shareholders vote against. That's a start, but the hard work needs to be Orbis talking to domestic passive managers.
Getting 90% of foreign active managers as of end-February would make it a very close-run thing, but Orbis really needs some more to show up against the ratio.


[Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio