bullish
The Skew in the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Combination
849 Views15 Apr 2025 16:43
The Tsuruha/Welcia merger has a little bit of activist optionality. It is not clear how strong that is. There is other optionality in the Tender Offer. There is skew. Then there is synergy skew too.
What is covered in the Full Insight:
- Introduction to the Tsuruha-Welcia-Aeon Deal
- Timeline of Events
- Merger Ratio and Share Distribution
- Potential Synergies and Market Implications
- Risks and Criticisms of the Merger
Boomeranged on Tue, 29 Apr 2025 23:22
Tsuruha is trading 5+% through its merger terms with Welcia. This is probably due to the latent possibility that Orbis and/or others will mount a more serious campaign to block the merger at the current ratio. That's tough, but not impossible. Watch for more active news. IF there is an effort, they might get 10-15% more on the ratio. I'd note, the later Tender Offer is up for grabs in any case.
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- [Japan Activism] ISS Comes Out Supporting Orbis Against Tsuruha/Welcia Merger Ratio09 May 2025
- Tsuruha (3391), Welcia (3141), and Aeon (8267) Do a Deal, Short-Changing Tsuruha Minorities13 Apr 2025
- Tsuruha (3391) - Welcia (3141) - Tsuruha Earnings In a Week - Still Good To Be Long The Ratio16 Mar 2025
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