Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This insight updates our previous: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-is-this-a-good-time-to-go-long-possibly-yes" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.</a> (Published on Dec 29, boomeranged on Jan 2).</li>
<li>As previously signaled, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> may be in the process of bottoming and possibly restart rallying. This tactical view is short term, <strong>our target is 106.4 (Q3 target).</strong>
</li>
<li>The stock is getting overbought, it does not mean the rally cannot continue past 106.4, but for now we will keep a conservative view, and we'll come back with updates.</li>
</ul>


This insight updates our previous: BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes. (Published on Dec 29, boomeranged on Jan 2).
As previously signaled, BYD (1211 HK) may be in the process of bottoming and possibly restart rallying. This tactical view is short term, our target is 106.4 (Q3 target).

The stock is getting overbought, it does not mean the rally cannot continue past 106.4, but for now we will keep a conservative view, and we'll come back with updates.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off?

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in March 2026.</li>
<li>We expect no index changes but we estimate there to be roughly US$840mn in one-way flows in March 2026.</li>
</ul>


The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
In this insight, we take a look at our final expectations of index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in March 2026.
We expect no index changes but we estimate there to be roughly US$840mn in one-way flows in March 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> ended on 31 December, the changes will be announced on 13 February and implemented on 6 March.</li>
<li>No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 1.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$12bn (U$1.5bn).</li>
<li>There is a low probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chery-automobile-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39918:1" rel="noopener">Chery Automobile (9973 HK)</a> being considered for index inclusion.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 31 December, the changes will be announced on 13 February and implemented on 6 March.
No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 1.9% resulting in a round-trip trade of HK$12bn (U$1.5bn).
There is a low probability of Geely Auto (175 HK) and Chery Automobile (9973 HK) being considered for index inclusion.


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

<ul>
<li>This insight is an update of the<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/byd-1211-hk-tactical-outlook-time-to-go-long-not-yet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> insight published on December 15th</a>. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> stock has been downtrending for a while, and LONG positioning starts to become attractive. </li>
<li>Right now our model is still saying that the short-term upside is limited, same as it did on December 15th but the model was recalculated and shows new profit targets.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> started this week very strongly, closing up +3.74% on Monday. The stock may be bottoming, so we are favorable to buying here, with some caveats.</li>
</ul>


This insight is an update of the insight published on December 15th. The BYD (1211 HK) stock has been downtrending for a while, and LONG positioning starts to become attractive. 
Right now our model is still saying that the short-term upside is limited, same as it did on December 15th but the model was recalculated and shows new profit targets.

BYD (1211 HK) started this week very strongly, closing up +3.74% on Monday. The stock may be bottoming, so we are favorable to buying here, with some caveats.


BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-dongshan-precision-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8796:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH,</a> SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.</li>
<li>SDPM was the largest PCB supplier for edge AI devices, the second-largest FPC supplier and a top three PCB supplier globally by revenue in 2024, according to CIC.</li>
<li>In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.</li>
</ul>



Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH, SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, aims to raise around US$1bn in its H-share listing.
SDPM was the largest PCB supplier for edge AI devices, the second-largest FPC supplier and a top three PCB supplier globally by revenue in 2024, according to CIC.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.


Aequitas: Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manuf A/H IPO - Stock Running on AI, Despite Lacklustre Past

China

BYD Company is a Chinese multinational manufacturing conglomerate specializing in new energy technologies. It develops and produces electric vehicles, rechargeable batteries for various applications, mobile handset components, and rail transit systems. The company was founded in February 1995 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.

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BYD Company (1211 HK)

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off?

As indicated in previous insight at the end of December, BYD (1211 HK) seems to be bottoming and restarting its rally. Our short-term target is...

Nico Rosti

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

Based on our latest estimates, we see one-way flow of US$840mn which translates to a turnover of 1.8%. Currently, we do not expect any index changes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

No constituent changes expected but capping leads to big flows. Low probability of 2 stocks being added after meeting the Autonomous criterion and...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.

BYD closed the week at 98.75, just above our model's Q2 profit target. It's not too late to enter the trade, read the insight and find out why we...

Nico Rosti

Aequitas: Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manuf A/H IPO - Stock Running on AI, Despite Lacklustre Past

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH, SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, is now said to be looking to raise up to US$3bn. We will...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Taking Off?

As indicated in previous insight at the end of December, ​BYD (1211 HK) seems to be bottoming and restarting its rally. Our short-term target is...

Nico Rosti

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Mar26: Final Ranks; US$840mn One-Way

Based on our latest estimates, we see one-way flow of US$840mn which translates to a turnover of 1.8%. Currently, we do not expect any index changes.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Changes If Index Universe Is Expanded

No constituent changes expected but capping leads to big flows. Low probability of 2 stocks being added after meeting the Autonomous criterion and...

Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Is This a Good Time To Go LONG? Possibly Yes.

BYD closed the week at 98.75, just above our model's Q2 profit target. It's not too late to enter the trade, read the insight and find out why we...

Nico Rosti

Aequitas: Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manuf A/H IPO - Stock Running on AI, Despite Lacklustre Past

Suzhou Dongshan Precision A (002384 CH, SDPM), a global PCB and other component provider, is now said to be looking to raise up to US$3bn. We will...

Sumeet Singh

As indicated in previous insight at the end of December, BYD (1211 HK) seems to be bottoming and restarting its rally. Our short-term target is...