Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>The market says Tesla's 20-30% price cuts will reverse stalling demand, even though several rounds of expensive cuts &amp; incentives in Q4 didn't.</li>
<li>I'm not convinced, as shown in my 2023 model &amp; forecast.</li>
<li>Tesla apparently isn't either, as indicated by sharply lower guidance and apparently plans to ramp up debt to bolster cash.</li>
</ul>


The market says Tesla's 20-30% price cuts will reverse stalling demand, even though several rounds of expensive cuts &amp; incentives in Q4 didn't.
I'm not convinced, as shown in my 2023 model &amp; forecast.
Tesla apparently isn't either, as indicated by sharply lower guidance and apparently plans to ramp up debt to bolster cash.


Tesla's Demand Problems Aren't Going Away

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>BYD’s 4Q22 earnings beat our expectation. We raise our FY23E net profit to RMB 18.9bn, or RMB 7,100 per vehicle to account for subsidy phase-out and stiffer competition.</li><li>We believe consensus could underestimate the margin dent from the subsidy phase-out.</li><li>We maintain HOLD given its fair valuation to us.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

BYD’s 4Q22 earnings beat our expectation. We raise our FY23E net profit to RMB 18.9bn, or RMB 7,100 per vehicle to account for subsidy phase-out and stiffer competition.We believe consensus could underestimate the margin dent from the subsidy phase-out.We maintain HOLD given its fair valuation to us.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD Company (1211 HK) – 4Q22 beat; FY23E margins likely overestimated

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 20th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of January 20th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, China Construction Bank, Hong Kong Exchanges And Clearing.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 20th): China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, CCB, HKEX

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 13th.</li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short changes in Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 13th.
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short changes in Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu.


HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>CPCA reported China’s 2022 EV sales of 6.49mn units, + 96.1% YoY, primarily driven by better market acceptance of EVs and favourable EV policies. </li>
<li>We think the fiercer competition will lead to divergence, which is already proven by Tesla’s price war. The followers such as Xpeng, could only be price takers and sacrifice margin.</li>
<li>We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, as 1) better profitability; 2) positive growth outlook in 2023. We cut NIO’s TP to US$ 18.</li>
</ul>


CPCA reported China’s 2022 EV sales of 6.49mn units, + 96.1% YoY, primarily driven by better market acceptance of EVs and favourable EV policies. 
We think the fiercer competition will lead to divergence, which is already proven by Tesla’s price war. The followers such as Xpeng, could only be price takers and sacrifice margin.
We reiterate Li Auto as our top pick, as 1) better profitability; 2) positive growth outlook in 2023. We cut NIO’s TP to US$ 18.


China EV Outlook: 2023 Will Be a Year of Divergence

China

BYD Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company also researches, develops, manufactures and sells batteries, which are applied on mobile phones, cordless phones, power tools and other kinds of portable electronic devices.

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BYD (1211 HK)

Tesla's Demand Problems Aren't Going Away

The market says Tesla's 20-30% price cuts will reverse stalling demand, even though several rounds of expensive cuts & incentives in Q4 didn't. I'm...

Vicki Bryan

BYD Company (1211 HK) – 4Q22 beat; FY23E margins likely overestimated

BYD’s 4Q22 earnings beat our expectation. We raise our FY23E net profit to RMB 18.9bn, or RMB 7,100 per vehicle to account for subsidy phase-out...

CMB International

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Jan 20th): China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, CCB, HKEX

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for China Mobile, Tencent, Meituan, China Construction Bank,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Short Interest Weekly: Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc, Jiumaojiu

We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jan 13th and highlight short interest changes in Ping An, Li Ning, Icbc,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

China EV Outlook: 2023 Will Be a Year of Divergence

We think the fiercer competition in 2023 will inevitably lead to divergence. The followers such as Xpeng, could only sacrifice margin. We reiterate...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)