Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Making sense of the Global Market, Euromonitor International Ltd.

Yu Mitsuhashi

Making sense of the Global Market

Euromonitor International Ltd.

We are a global market research company focused on industries, countries, economies and consumers worldwide. Our cross-country comparable research helps your organisation identify opportunities and develop growth strategies in countries and regions across the globe. With offices around the world, 1,200 analysts in 100 countries and market research on every key trend and driver, we give you powerful access to the real story behind consumer change.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion.</li><li>Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s shaving continues to decline.</li><li>Unilever led ahead of Procter &amp; Gamble with 17% and 16% value shares respectively in 2017.</li><li>Retailers pursued an everyday low pricing strategy causing downward pressure on unit prices.</li><li>Men’s grooming is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% in value terms at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.1 billion by 2022.</li></ul>

Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion.Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s shaving continues to decline.Unilever led ahead of Procter &amp; Gamble with 17% and 16% value shares respectively in 2017.Retailers pursued an everyday low pricing strategy causing downward pressure on unit prices.Men’s grooming is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3% in value terms at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period to reach GBP2.1 billion by 2022.

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in the United Kingdom

<ul><li>Skin care posted healthy current value growth of 5% in 2017, to reach USD18.4 billion.</li><li>The demand for efficacious and multifunctional skin care products coincides with greater consumer interest in healthy living and wellness.</li><li>Premium skin care witnessed healthy growth in 2017, driven by face masks and premium skin care sets/kits</li><li>Investment in South Korean skin care companies was seen in 2017, following Unilever’s purchase of Carver Korea and retailers such as CVS, Target, Sephora and Ulta Beauty dedicating more shelf-space to Korean brands.</li><li>L'Oréal USA remained the leader in skin care in 2017, with a 10% value share.</li><li>Skin care is expected to post a value CAGR of 3% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach USD21.1 billion in 2022.</li></ul>

Skin care posted healthy current value growth of 5% in 2017, to reach USD18.4 billion.The demand for efficacious and multifunctional skin care products coincides with greater consumer interest in healthy living and wellness.Premium skin care witnessed healthy growth in 2017, driven by face masks and premium skin care sets/kitsInvestment in South Korean skin care companies was seen in 2017, following Unilever’s purchase of Carver Korea and retailers such as CVS, Target, Sephora and Ulta Beauty dedicating more shelf-space to Korean brands.L'Oréal USA remained the leader in skin care in 2017, with a 10% value share.Skin care is expected to post a value CAGR of 3% at constant 2017 prices over the forecast period, to reach USD21.1 billion in 2022.

<ul><li>RTD tea declined by 11% in off-trade volume terms and by 13% in off-trade current value terms to 479 million litres and THB16.5 billion in 2017</li><li>The fierce competition in RTD tea impacts the off-trade value performance</li><li>RTD tea witnessed strong on-trade volume growth in 2017, contrasting with the off-trade volume decline</li><li>Oishi Group lead RTD tea with a 53% off-trade value share in 2017</li><li>RTD tea to record a negative off-trade CAGR of 3% in both volume terms and at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period for sales of 407 million litres and THB14.5 billion in 2022</li></ul>

RTD tea declined by 11% in off-trade volume terms and by 13% in off-trade current value terms to 479 million litres and THB16.5 billion in 2017The fierce competition in RTD tea impacts the off-trade value performanceRTD tea witnessed strong on-trade volume growth in 2017, contrasting with the off-trade volume declineOishi Group lead RTD tea with a 53% off-trade value share in 2017RTD tea to record a negative off-trade CAGR of 3% in both volume terms and at constant 2017 prices in the forecast period for sales of 407 million litres and THB14.5 billion in 2022

Sector Capsule: Rtd (Ready to Drink) Tea in Thailand

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li>We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.</li>
<li>Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.</li>
<li>The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…</li>
</ul>


We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning the payback from digital advertising.
Indeed, Google has begun offering refunds to advertisers for fraudulent traffic driven by ‘click bots’, but stricter EU data privacy rules and the rise of ad blocking software are additional threats.
The ad sector risks being disintermediated as increasingly cost conscious brands facing rising EM competition create…


Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

Netherlands

Unilever is a British multinational consumer packaged goods company that manufactures and sells a wide range of products including beauty & personal care, home care, and food & beverages. Its portfolio includes approximately 400 brands globally. The company was formed in 1929 from the merger of British soap maker Lever Brothers and Dutch margarine producer Margarine Unie, and is headquartered in London, England.

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Unilever (UNI3 GR)

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Sector Capsule: Men's Grooming in the United Kingdom

Men’s grooming in the UK grew by 3% in 2017 to reach GBP1.8 billion. Men’s skin care was one of the principal drivers of growth, while men’s...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Skin Care in the US

Skin care posted healthy current value growth of 5% in 2017, to reach USD18.4 billion. The demand for efficacious and multifunctional skin care...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Sector Capsule: Rtd (Ready to Drink) Tea in Thailand

RTD tea declined by 11% in off-trade volume terms and by 13% in off-trade current value terms to 479 million litres and THB16.5 billion in...

Euromonitor International Ltd.

Advertising Industry Gets Disrupted, as Central Bankers Fly Blind…

We’ve seen a number of advertising sector profit warnings from Dentsu to WPP amid signs that key clients across the FMCG sector are questioning...

Sean Maher

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