Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Our neutral and cautious outlook continues to be reinforced by market dynamics that have generally deteriorated over the past week. RS improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care) continues to make these Sectors attractive. Meanwhile, not one MSCI ACWI Sector is breaking down, and important price support levels are holding in the US, Europe, and Japan. Until supports start to break we cannot be bearish, though we would not be surprised to see ~5% downside with potential for more.

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate).

Our outlook remains unchanged as the weight of the evidence continues to suggest a mixed, but overall constructive market. Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight (i.e., Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, and Transportation), while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate). 

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

China Mengniu Dairy Co / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/danone-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21403:1" rel="noopener">Danone SA (BN FP)</a> is looking to raise about US$2bn by selling its 9.8% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mengniu-dairy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:354:1" rel="noopener">China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK)</a>. This is a clean-up trade.In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics, briefly look at FY20 performance, and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Danone SA (BN FP) is looking to raise about US$2bn by selling its 9.8% stake in China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK). This is a clean-up trade.In this note, we will discuss deal dynamics, briefly look at FY20 performance, and run the deal through our ECM framework.

China Mengniu Placement - Danone's Expected Exit - One and Done

President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

We issued a short recommendation on BN FP over 12 months ago when the stock was at 71 euros.  We closed the short when the stock was below 53 euros.  We should have stayed short longer as the stock ended up trading below 47 euros.  It has since rallied 24% over the past 4 months to almost 58 euros and is at the upper band on the RSI chart.  Some believe a turnaround story is in the works, but many of the issues we previously highlighted still exist.  The question is, at what price should you buy or short the turnaround?

We issued a short recommendation on BN FP over 12 months ago when the stock was at 71 euros.  We closed the short when the stock was below 53 euros.  We should have stayed short longer as the stock ended up trading below 47 euros.  It has since rallied 24% over the past 4 months to almost 58 euros and is at the upper band on the RSI chart.  Some believe a turnaround story is in the works, but many of the issues we previously highlighted still exist.  The question is, at what price should you buy or short the turnaround?

Danone SA (BN FP): Is This A Turnaround Story Or Could Another Short Opportunity Be On The Horizon?

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul>
<li>According to our definition, A2 Milk is a wonderful business largely thanks to its superior return on capital guarded by a multi-layered moat, a megatrend-driven growth prospect, and the capability to compound earnings for shareholders;</li>
<li>Mr. Market displayed his short-termism in terms of the stock recently, which we think provides a rare entry point for investors interested in the company into 2021.</li>
</ul>


According to our definition, A2 Milk is a wonderful business largely thanks to its superior return on capital guarded by a multi-layered moat, a megatrend-driven growth prospect, and the capability to compound earnings for shareholders;
Mr. Market displayed his short-termism in terms of the stock recently, which we think provides a rare entry point for investors interested in the company into 2021.


France

Danone SA is a food processing company. The Company produces dairy products, beverages, baby food and clinical/medical nutrition products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Danone SA (BN FP)

Crude Oil and Copper Breakdowns Reinforce Our Concerns; Defensive Sectors Remain Attractive

Our cautious outlook is reinforced by ongoing developments. Relative strength improvement for defensives (Utilities, Staples, Real Estate, Health...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Value Remains Leadership But Defensives Improving

Cyclical value Sectors continue to be our favorite areas to overweight, while defensive Sectors also continue to be worth a look (i.e., Staples,...

Vermilion Research

China Mengniu Placement - Danone's Expected Exit - One and Done

Danone SA (BN FP) is looking to raise about US$2bn by selling its 9.8% stake in China Mengniu Dairy Co (2319 HK). This is a clean-up trade.

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Danone SA (BN FP): Is This A Turnaround Story Or Could Another Short Opportunity Be On The Horizon?

While there is a future short opportunity if 2021 estimates and valuation increase, the stock may currently be neither attractive as a buy or a short.

Robert C Prather Jr

2021 High Conviction: A2 Milk

Buying quality businesses at or below fair prices and holding them for the long run is the key to generate alpha. A2 Milk at the current level...

Steven Chen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)