Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a>’s investment is focused on joint AI development.   </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> may seek to invite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US)</a> to join its investment initiative.</li>
<li>Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a>’s stock price has risen about 50.2% from its recent low. </li>
</ul>



NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)’s investment is focused on joint AI development.   

Intel Corp (INTC US) may seek to invite Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR (TSM US) to join its investment initiative.
Meanwhile, Intel Corp (INTC US)’s stock price has risen about 50.2% from its recent low. 


Intel (INTC.US): Seeking Investment from TSMC?

United Microelectron Sp Adr / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.   </li>
<li>The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-microelectron-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11540:1" rel="noopener">United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US)</a> appears negligible.</li>
<li>Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.</li>
</ul>



United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) – 2025 Full-Year and 4Q Outlook.   
The impact of U.S. recent restrictions on United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) appears negligible.
Customer demand trends are diverging in 2H25, and overall demand is expected to soften in 4Q25.


UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

<ul>
<li>Rohm's relative share price is trading above the 200-day moving average for the first time since August 2023.</li>
<li>Inventory de-stocking for SiC-based semiconductor suppliers is nearing its end, paving the way for order replenishment </li>
<li>Analysts expect Rohm’s margins to lag those of rivals in the recovery, but Rohm has done more to cut inventories than any other. </li>
</ul>


Rohm's relative share price is trading above the 200-day moving average for the first time since August 2023.
Inventory de-stocking for SiC-based semiconductor suppliers is nearing its end, paving the way for order replenishment 
Analysts expect Rohm’s margins to lag those of rivals in the recovery, but Rohm has done more to cut inventories than any other. 


Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Over past year the price of Silicon Carbide wafers has declined by 50-60%, leading to the bankruptcy of Wolfspeed. The Western media tends to blame Chinese over-capacity and price cuts. </li>
<li>But all SiC firms have massively increased capacity: Infineon, Onsemi, STMicro. The vertical integration of the majors is also to blame: over-investments in a small market (rapidly growing, but small). </li>
<li>Who benefits? Nominally the big integrated vendors Infineon, Onsemi, Rohm, STMicro – but Power SiC is a small fraction of their revenues.</li>
</ul>


Over past year the price of Silicon Carbide wafers has declined by 50-60%, leading to the bankruptcy of Wolfspeed. The Western media tends to blame Chinese over-capacity and price cuts. 
But all SiC firms have massively increased capacity: Infineon, Onsemi, STMicro. The vertical integration of the majors is also to blame: over-investments in a small market (rapidly growing, but small). 
Who benefits? Nominally the big integrated vendors Infineon, Onsemi, Rohm, STMicro – but Power SiC is a small fraction of their revenues.


Automotive Power SiC: The Bankruptcy of Wolfspeed

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.</li>
<li>Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.</li>
<li>Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.</li>
</ul>


TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won't impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.
Additionally, we see TSMC's aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel's ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators--domestic U.S. production.
Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC -- Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO -- Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.


TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

Germany

Infineon Technologies AG designs, manufactures, and markets semiconductors. The Company offers products include power semiconductors, microcontrollers, security controllers, radio frequency products, and sensors. Infineon markets its products to the automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer and security electronics sectors.

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Infineon Technologies (IFX GR)

Intel (INTC.US): Seeking Investment from TSMC?

NVIDIA focuses on joint AI development, Intel may invite TSMC to join investment initiative, Intel's stock price rises 50%. What's next?

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Patrick Liao

Rohm (6964): Is the Wait Finally Over?

Rohm's stock price above 200-day average, inventory de-stocking ending across multiple end-user markets, analysts predict lagging margins but...

Michael Allen

Automotive Power SiC: The Bankruptcy of Wolfspeed

The decline in Silicon Carbide wafer price led to bankruptcy of Wolfspeed. Blame placed on Chinese over-capacity but the vertical integration of...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Intel (INTC.US): Seeking Investment from TSMC?

​NVIDIA focuses on joint AI development, Intel may invite TSMC to join investment initiative, Intel's stock price rises 50%. What's next?

Patrick Liao

UMC (2303.TT; UMC.US): 4Q25 Revenue Is Projected to Decline 5–10% QoQ.

​United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Patrick Liao

Rohm (6964): Is the Wait Finally Over?

​Rohm's stock price above 200-day average, inventory de-stocking ending across multiple end-user markets, analysts predict lagging margins but...

Michael Allen

Automotive Power SiC: The Bankruptcy of Wolfspeed

​The decline in Silicon Carbide wafer price led to bankruptcy of Wolfspeed. Blame placed on Chinese over-capacity but the vertical integration of...

Nicolas Baratte

TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

​TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

NVIDIA focuses on joint AI development, Intel may invite TSMC to join investment initiative, Intel's stock price rises 50%. What's next?

United Microelectron Sp Adr (UMC US) outlook for 2025 remains steady despite U.S. restrictions, with softening demand expected in 4Q25.

Rohm's stock price above 200-day average, inventory de-stocking ending across multiple end-user markets, analysts predict lagging margins but...

The decline in Silicon Carbide wafer price led to bankruptcy of Wolfspeed. Blame placed on Chinese over-capacity but the vertical integration of...

TSMC explained how it is accelerating Taiwan investments while also increasing its expansion in the U.S.. Highly positive news for semiconductor...