Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wasion-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:421:1" rel="noopener">Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK)</a>has filed an application to spin off its subsidiary, Wayon Energy. </li>
<li>The average valuation of its peers including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infineon-technologies-ag-b186d688-4649-4d6c-b335-f0eb2aa73c27" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28576:1" rel="noopener">Infineon Technologies (IFNNY US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stmicroelectronics-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21227:1" rel="noopener">STMicroelectronics NV (STM IM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starpower-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30089:1" rel="noopener">StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH)</a> is 27x PER and 4.3x P/S. </li>
<li>Further upside of around 20-50% is expected based on the current data. More details to be provided upon further disclosure. </li>
</ul>



Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK)has filed an application to spin off its subsidiary, Wayon Energy. 
The average valuation of its peers including Infineon Technologies (IFNNY US) , STMicroelectronics NV (STM IM) and StarPower Semiconductor (603290 CH) is 27x PER and 4.3x P/S. 
Further upside of around 20-50% is expected based on the current data. More details to be provided upon further disclosure. 


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. </li>
<li>The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microchip-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8788:1" rel="noopener">Microchip Technology (MCHP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-instruments-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18804:1" rel="noopener">Texas Instruments (TXN US)</a>. </li>
<li>Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.</li>
</ul>



GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)'s grey market price of HK$224.8 is 38.8% higher than the IPO price. This means a PER of 53.5x for FY26, simply too stretched for us. 
The grey market price represents a 68-77% FY26 PER premium to the most-expensive peers, namely Microchip Technology (MCHP US) and Texas Instruments (TXN US). 
Our fair value range is HK$204-238, based on the HA discount for 2025 IPOs and the current overall HA discount, implying limited upside potential.


GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) (TSM US)

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US)</a> annual growth rate for 2026 is expected to reach 20%+.</li>
<li>N3, N4, and N5 processes are currently cross-fabricating to Taichung Fab 15 for metal layer production.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is anticipated to be a key customer driving significant growth in 2026, fueled by demand of AI.  </li>
</ul>



TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR (TSM US) annual growth rate for 2026 is expected to reach 20%+.
N3, N4, and N5 processes are currently cross-fabricating to Taichung Fab 15 for metal layer production.

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is anticipated to be a key customer driving significant growth in 2026, fueled by demand of AI.  


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026 Growth >20%; N3/N2 Capacity & Yield; Main Clients’ Focus.

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marvell-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15837:1" rel="noopener">Marvell Technology (MRVL US)</a> experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.</li>
<li>The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.</li>
</ul>



Marvell Technology (MRVL US) became eligible at the last minute for S&amp;P500 inclusion in the December 2025 review, following positive Q3 earnings.

Marvell Technology (MRVL US) experienced a significant turnaround in profitability in the last year, but its latest earnings are driven by non-operational activity.
The company's market cap and other eligibility metrics are estimated to place it among the top addition candidates for S&amp;P500 with a higher chance of inclusion in 2026.


Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility</li>
<li>But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months</li>
<li>USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument</li>
</ul>


US Government invests $9bn in Intel, Nvidia another $5bn, Softbank $2bn. This solves Intel’s most pressing problem: the risk of financial fragility
But neither USG, nor Nvidia have semi manufacturing expertise, so $-injections don’t solve Intel’s 2nd problem. Intel has to  demonstrate a very solid 14A in the next 12 months
USG 1:1 import: domestic rule is positive to GlobalFoundries that can get orders away from SMIC or UMC. Positive to Texas Instrument


Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

Germany

Infineon Technologies AG designs, manufactures, and markets semiconductors. The Company offers products include power semiconductors, microcontrollers, security controllers, radio frequency products, and sensors. Infineon markets its products to the automotive, industrial, communications, and consumer and security electronics sectors.

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Infineon Technologies (IFX GR)

Wasion (3393): Spin off Is Happening

Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK) applies to spin off Wayon Energy, with potential 20-50% upside based on peer valuations. More details pending...

Henry Soediarko

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026 Growth >20%; N3/N2 Capacity & Yield; Main Clients’ Focus.

TSMC's annual growth rate expected to exceed 20% in 2026, driven by cross-fabrication processes and demand from key customers demand, like NVIDIA...

Patrick Liao

Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

MRVL is labelled bullish for index rebalance but bearish in fundamentals following the fourth consecutive positive earnings and high price-to...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Wasion (3393): Spin off Is Happening

​Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK) applies to spin off Wayon Energy, with potential 20-50% upside based on peer valuations. More details pending...

Henry Soediarko

GigaDevice (3986 HK): Its Just Too Demanding

​GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

Osbert Tang, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2026 Growth >20%; N3/N2 Capacity & Yield; Main Clients’ Focus.

​TSMC's annual growth rate expected to exceed 20% in 2026, driven by cross-fabrication processes and demand from key customers demand, like NVIDIA...

Patrick Liao

Marvell Technology (MRVL US): Heroic Earnings Unlock S&P500 Eligibility

MRVL is labelled bullish for index rebalance but bearish in fundamentals following the fourth consecutive positive earnings and high price-to...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Intel: Money Only Solves Half the Problem. The 1:1 Domestic-To-Import Ratio Not a Clear Positive

​USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....

Nicolas Baratte

Wasion Group Holdings (3393 HK) applies to spin off Wayon Energy, with potential 20-50% upside based on peer valuations. More details pending...

GigaDevice's grey market price is 38.8% higher than IPO, leading to a FY26 PER of 53.5x, with limited upside potential compared to peers, even...

TSMC's annual growth rate expected to exceed 20% in 2026, driven by cross-fabrication processes and demand from key customers demand, like NVIDIA...

USG, Nvidia, and Softbank invest billions in Intel to address financial fragility, but Intel must still demonstrate solid 14A in next 12 months....