Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.</li>
<li>Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.</li>
</ul>


At the October rebalance, there are 970 stocks that will have a lower FFW while 114 stocks will have a higher FFW. 493 stocks will undergo a Phased Weight Reduction.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.54% resulting in a one-way trade of ¥1.815tn. 500 stocks have over 4 days ADV to trade, 100 stocks have over 9 days ADV to trade.
Setting the threshold at +/-US$50m to trade, the stocks with inflows have outperformed the stocks with outflows by 6.5% over the last four months.


TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmdc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28673:1" rel="noopener">JMDC Inc (4483 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$235m, US$150m coming via an international offering and the rest via issuing shares to its largest shareholder, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/omron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15904:1" rel="noopener">Omron Corp (6645 JP)</a> . </li>
<li>The company plans to use the proceeds to repay some of its debt that was taken on earlier to acquire other companies.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



JMDC Inc (4483 JP) aims to raise around US$235m, US$150m coming via an international offering and the rest via issuing shares to its largest shareholder, Omron Corp (6645 JP) . 
The company plans to use the proceeds to repay some of its debt that was taken on earlier to acquire other companies.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


JMDC Placement - Lots to like but past Deals Have Been Mixed and It Is Expensive

<ul>
<li>Judo Capital raised about US$483m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.</li>
<li>Judo Capital (JC) focuses on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Australia. It also offers a range of personal term deposit products to consumers.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>


Judo Capital raised about US$483m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.
Judo Capital (JC) focuses on lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Australia. It also offers a range of personal term deposit products to consumers.
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Judo Capital IPO Lock-Up - Gearing up for a A$650m Lock-Up Release

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> announced results today. Operating Income +0.8%, Operating Earnings +45.9%, Net Profit +45.5% to ¥1.13trln. </li>
<li>The forecast for Mar23 is for a "target" of Net Income of &gt;¥1trln. The DPS for Mar23 is set at ¥32 vs ¥28 last year and ¥25 the year before.</li>
<li>And MUFG announced both the delay of the closing of Union Bancorp sale to calendar H2, and a big buyback of ¥300bn. </li>
</ul>



Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) announced results today. Operating Income +0.8%, Operating Earnings +45.9%, Net Profit +45.5% to ¥1.13trln. 
The forecast for Mar23 is for a "target" of Net Income of &gt;¥1trln. The DPS for Mar23 is set at ¥32 vs ¥28 last year and ¥25 the year before.
And MUFG announced both the delay of the closing of Union Bancorp sale to calendar H2, and a big buyback of ¥300bn. 


MUFG (8306 JP) - BigBank BigBuyback But A Bit Pricey Vs SMFG

Japan

Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. provides comprehensive financial services through its subsidiaries. The Group provides variety of financial services such as general banking, securities brokerage, trust banking, and assets management.

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Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)

TOPIX October Rebalance: BIG One With ¥1.8tn a Side to Trade

Lower FFWs on 970 stocks and higher FFWs on 114 stocks will result in one-way turnover of 2.52% leading to a one-way trade of ¥1.8tn at the close...

Brian Freitas

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research

JMDC Placement - Lots to like but past Deals Have Been Mixed and It Is Expensive

JMDC Inc (4483 JP) aims to raise around US$235m, US$150m coming via an international offering and the rest via issuing shares to its largest...

Sumeet Singh

Judo Capital IPO Lock-Up - Gearing up for a A$650m Lock-Up Release

Judo Capital raised about US$483m by selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in Nov 21. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire later this month.

Sumeet Singh

MUFG (8306 JP) - BigBank BigBuyback But A Bit Pricey Vs SMFG

MUFG reported earnings, and a buyback. MUFG has reported a buyback after about half of the fiscal halves in the past few years. This one, like last...

Travis Lundy

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