Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18</li>
<li>Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. </li>
<li>So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the EURO STOXX 50, as discussed April 18
Discussed last Thursday(4/18/24) how further downside may be limited with these indexes 4-5% off their highs, combined with ACWI-US testing gap support ($105) and the EURO STOXX50 testing 6-month uptrend. 
So far, these supports have held strong, and Japan's TOPIX has also held strong above 2615 support -- with all producing strong bounces far this week.


Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>WPP’s capital markets day (CMD) focused on the combination of creativity and AI at scale and how these can be leveraged to boost clients’ businesses. Outline Q423 performance figures were given, along with updated forward guidance, including on restructuring costs and potential payback. We expect market expectations to be broadly unchanged. The overarching narrative of consolidation and simplification, common data platforms and standardised reporting, is coherent and supports the projected margin expansion. To be really convincing, though, top-line growth needs to exceed the 3% indicated, which depends on better performances in both Media and Creative. The rating remains undemanding.</p>

WPP’s capital markets day (CMD) focused on the combination of creativity and AI at scale and how these can be leveraged to boost clients’ businesses. Outline Q423 performance figures were given, along with updated forward guidance, including on restructuring costs and potential payback. We expect market expectations to be broadly unchanged. The overarching narrative of consolidation and simplification, common data platforms and standardised reporting, is coherent and supports the projected margin expansion. To be really convincing, though, top-line growth needs to exceed the 3% indicated, which depends on better performances in both Media and Creative. The rating remains undemanding.

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Back on the 30 November, UK-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wpp-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22213:1" rel="noopener">WPP PLC (WPP LN)</a>, the world's largest advertising company, tabled a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02315430-2A1266721?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a> to delist 61.5%-held subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wpp-aunz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15931:1" rel="noopener">WPP AUNZ (WPP AU)</a> at A$0.55/share, in cash, a 34.1% premium to last close, and a 69.3% premium to the six-month VWAP. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This was an unsolicited Offer and no binding implementation agreement (BIA) had been entered into.</p>
<p>In <em><a href="https://skr.ma/JSrkm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WPP AUNZ: Mad Men At Work</a></em>, I argued there was an air of opportunism to the Offer, and recommended buying at or below terms - on the expectation of a bump, as management argues the upside from its wide-ranging cost cuts.</p>
<h3><strong>The New News</strong></h3>
<p>WPP PLC has returned with a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02323439-2A1270746?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A$0.70/share offer</a>, by way of  Scheme, valuing WPP AUNZ at an implied enterprise value of A$717mn. It is the intention of WPP AUNZ to enter into a BIA.</p>
<p>With that 27.3% bump, this looks done.</p>
</div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
<div>
<p></p>
</div>


Back on the 30 November, UK-based WPP PLC (WPP LN), the world's largest advertising company, tabled a proposal to delist 61.5%-held subsidiary WPP AUNZ (WPP AU) at A$0.55/share, in cash, a 34.1% premium to last close, and a 69.3% premium to the six-month VWAP. 


This was an unsolicited Offer and no binding implementation agreement (BIA) had been entered into.
In WPP AUNZ: Mad Men At Work, I argued there was an air of opportunism to the Offer, and recommended buying at or below terms - on the expectation of a bump, as management argues the upside from its wide-ranging cost cuts.
The New News
WPP PLC has returned with a A$0.70/share offer, by way of  Scheme, valuing WPP AUNZ at an implied enterprise value of A$717mn. It is the intention of WPP AUNZ to enter into a BIA.
With that 27.3% bump, this looks done.

More below the fold.




United Kingdom

WPP plc operates a communications services group.  The Company's operations encompass advertising, media investment management, information and consultancy, public relations and public affairs, healthcare and specialist communications, and branding and identity services.

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WPP PLC (WPP LN)

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Supports Holding on MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, and EM

Upgrading Europe to Overweight EURO $STOXX 50 $FEZ; Supports Holding on MSCI $ACWI, $ACWX, $EFA, and $EEM. Latest 4-6% pullback remains healthy...

Vermilion Research

WPP - Harnessing AI, data and platform

WPP’s capital markets day (CMD) focused on the combination of creativity and AI at scale and how these can be leveraged to boost clients’...

Edison Investment Research

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

WPP AUNZ: More Mad Men At Work

This solid bump should see this deal through. Expect WPP AUNZ to trade tight to terms - I see A$0.70/share as I type - on account of shareholders...

David Blennerhassett

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