Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia, Forsyth Barr Asia

David Millhouse

Head of China Research - Forsyth Barr Asia

Forsyth Barr Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:<ol><li>What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications </li><li>How large margin trading in China is </li><li>Does this mean the government wants the stock market down </li><li>Our view on A-share market going forward </li></ol>

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative announcements (corruption crackdowns, insider selling at SOEs, regulator speeding up IPO approvals), the KEY reason for the move was the margin trading suspension at three of the largest brokers in China. The brokers, banks and insurance sectors were all limit down. Below we look to explain:What changes to margin trading have been made, and the implications How large margin trading in China is Does this mean the government wants the stock market down Our view on A-share market going forward 

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a> announced details of its merger, and as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a> is valued higher, FY26F EPS dilution will be 8.5% on a weighted average basis.</li>
<li>Its post-merger FY26 and FY27 PERs are higher than the sector average, but given its rise to the 3rd largest H-share securities company, the premium can be justified.</li>
<li>Larger H-share securities companies have edged up since 19-Nov, which bodes well for CICC. We envisage a muted share price reaction, but long-term investors can build a position.  </li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK) announced details of its merger, and as Dongxing Securities (601198 CH) is valued higher, FY26F EPS dilution will be 8.5% on a weighted average basis.
Its post-merger FY26 and FY27 PERs are higher than the sector average, but given its rise to the 3rd largest H-share securities company, the premium can be justified.
Larger H-share securities companies have edged up since 19-Nov, which bodes well for CICC. We envisage a muted share price reaction, but long-term investors can build a position.  


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>'s announced merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongxing-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25320:1" rel="noopener">Dongxing Securities (601198 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cinda-securities-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45389:1" rel="noopener">Cinda Securities (601059 CH)</a> will elevate it to the 3rd largest HK-listed Chinese securities company.</li>
<li>Based on our assumptions, its EPS will be diluted by 7.1%, BPS enhanced by 12.2%, and ROE lowered by 1pp for FY26, before accounting for synergy.</li>
<li>Its presence in Fujian (+616.7%), Liaoning (+500%), and Beijing (+100%) will be significantly enlarged. Additionally, it will open up potential benefits from optimisation.</li>
</ul>



CICC (3908 HK)'s announced merger with Dongxing Securities (601198 CH) and Cinda Securities (601059 CH) will elevate it to the 3rd largest HK-listed Chinese securities company.
Based on our assumptions, its EPS will be diluted by 7.1%, BPS enhanced by 12.2%, and ROE lowered by 1pp for FY26, before accounting for synergy.
Its presence in Fujian (+616.7%), Liaoning (+500%), and Beijing (+100%) will be significantly enlarged. Additionally, it will open up potential benefits from optimisation.


CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.2% as of Oct 31st.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 2.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou Automobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 62.2% as of Oct 31st.
The average A-H premium changed by 2.3ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, financials and offset by real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou Automobile.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 31st): Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Everbright Securitie Co (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
 <li>Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth management, investment banking, and asset management.</li>
 <li>The company's financial performance is inherently tied to the volatility of China's capital markets, as evidenced by recent declines in revenue and net income following periods of strong growth. Regulatory shifts and intense domestic competition are key factors influencing its operational landscape.</li>
 <li>Strategically, the firm is focused on optimizing its capital structure and expanding into higher-margin businesses like institutional brokerage and wealth management to navigate the highly fragmented and competitive domestic market.</li>
</ul>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.


  Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth management, investment banking, and asset management.
  The company's financial performance is inherently tied to the volatility of China's capital markets, as evidenced by recent declines in revenue and net income following periods of strong growth. Regulatory shifts and intense domestic competition are key factors influencing its operational landscape.
  Strategically, the firm is focused on optimizing its capital structure and expanding into higher-margin businesses like institutional brokerage and wealth management to navigate the highly fragmented and competitive domestic market.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) - Sep 2025

China

Everbright Securities Company Limited is a leading financial services institution primarily engaged in securities brokerage, wealth management, corporate finance, and asset management. The company offers a comprehensive suite of financial products and services to individuals, corporations, and institutions. It was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

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Everbright Securities (6178 HK)

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative...

David Millhouse

CICC (3908 HK): Merger Details Are Out

CICC released merger details, facing 8.5% EPS dilution, but justified by the rise to the 3rd largest securities company. Share price reaction may...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 31st): Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) - Sep 2025

Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth...

αSK Primers

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

This week's flash-crash in China: thoughts and implications

China A-shares closed down almost 8% on Monday, on heavy volumes, the largest fall since February 2007. Whilst there were several negative...

David Millhouse

CICC (3908 HK): Merger Details Are Out

​CICC released merger details, facing 8.5% EPS dilution, but justified by the rise to the 3rd largest securities company. Share price reaction may...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CICC (3908 HK): Initial Assessment of the Merger

​CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...

Osbert Tang, CFA

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 31st): Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for Sinotrans, Jiangxi Copper, Everbright Securities, Guangzhou...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Primer: Everbright Securitie Co (A) (601788 CH) - Sep 2025

Everbright Securities is a prominent, state-affiliated financial services firm in China with a comprehensive business model spanning wealth...

αSK Primers

CICC released merger details, facing 8.5% EPS dilution, but justified by the rise to the 3rd largest securities company. Share price reaction may...

CICC's merger with Dongxing and Cinda will make it the 3rd largest Chinese securities company, with diluted EPS, enhanced BPS, and lowered ROE for...