Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Screening US-listed China plays with negative EV and positive tailing EBITDA generates eight names. </li>
<li>Of these companies, only two are expected to be EBITDA positive in FY22. </li>
<li>They are <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joyy-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:285:1" rel="noopener">JOYY (YY US)</a></strong> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Sohu.com (SOHU US</strong>)</a>. This insight looks at both names. </li>
</ul>


Screening US-listed China plays with negative EV and positive tailing EBITDA generates eight names. 
Of these companies, only two are expected to be EBITDA positive in FY22. 
They are JOYY (YY US) and Sohu.com (SOHU US). This insight looks at both names. 


Negative EVs: JOYY & Sohu's Steep Discount To Net Cash

Event-Driven

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<p>Around 9.5 months after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and Chinese search-engine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sogou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25996:1" rel="noopener">Sogou Inc (SOGO US)</a> <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115257193&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2020-09-29&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction, the Offer was granted unconditional approval by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the 12 July. </p>
<p>Apparently, that wasn't the final approval as the regulators continued to overhaul and tweak China's tech sector. In its<a href="http://ir.sogou.com/2021-08-09-Sogou-Announces-Second-Quarter-2021-Results" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> 2Q21 results</a> (announced on the 9 August) Sogou said it expected the merger with Tencent to complete in the 2H21.</p>
<p>Yesterday, Sogou <a href="http://ir.sogou.com/2021-09-23-Sogou-Announces-Completion-of-Going-Private-Transaction" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the completion of the merger and shares have been suspended. Payment will be made "as soon as practical". </p>
<p>Hong Kong's Standard <a href="https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/17/234417/Tencent-Sogou-merger-first-after-overhauls" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> yesterday that Tencent's news and content unit Tencent Kandian will absorb most of Sogou's business and employees.  After merging with Sogou, the search engine segment will be the core business of Tencent Kandian. Tencent was permitted to take up the 60.9% in Sogou it did not already own provided it established a "special mechanism" to ensure data security.</p>
<p>So that's done. This is a short-form merger - there was no vote. Dissension rights are now afforded for short-form mergers and I would expect some investors to take up those rights.  </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a> pockets ~US$1.2bn from the merger via its 33.8% equity stake in Sogou, versus its current market cap of US$857mn. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


Around 9.5 months after Tencent (700 HK) and Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US) entered into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction, the Offer was granted unconditional approval by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on the 12 July. 
Apparently, that wasn't the final approval as the regulators continued to overhaul and tweak China's tech sector. In its 2Q21 results (announced on the 9 August) Sogou said it expected the merger with Tencent to complete in the 2H21.
Yesterday, Sogou announced the completion of the merger and shares have been suspended. Payment will be made "as soon as practical". 
Hong Kong's Standard reported yesterday that Tencent's news and content unit Tencent Kandian will absorb most of Sogou's business and employees.  After merging with Sogou, the search engine segment will be the core business of Tencent Kandian. Tencent was permitted to take up the 60.9% in Sogou it did not already own provided it established a "special mechanism" to ensure data security.
So that's done. This is a short-form merger - there was no vote. Dissension rights are now afforded for short-form mergers and I would expect some investors to take up those rights.  


Separately, Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) pockets ~US$1.2bn from the merger via its 33.8% equity stake in Sogou, versus its current market cap of US$857mn. 


More below the fold.


Sohu.com (SOHU US): Cashed Up As Tencent/Sogou Merger Completes

<div>
<p>Nearly a year after Chinese search-engine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sogou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25996:1" rel="noopener">Sogou Inc (SOGO US)</a>  <a href="http://ir.sogou.com/2020-07-27-Sogou-Announces-Receipt-of-a-Preliminary-Non-Binding-Proposal-to-Acquire-the-Company" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a preliminary non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, and around 9.5 months since <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115257193&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2020-09-29&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entering</a> into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction, the Offer has been granted unconditional approval by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This Merger is in the form of a short-form merger as per section 233(7) of the <a href="https://www.cima.ky/upimages/commonfiles/CompaniesLaw2020Revision_1579811065.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Companies Law of the Cayman Islands</a> - there is no vote. With SAMR sign-off in the bag, this deal should become effective very shortly, and accordingly, is trading tight to terms.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>Separately, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a> will pocket ~US$1.2bn from the merger via its 33.8% equity stake in Sogou, versus its current market cap of US$933mn. <em>And that is after yesterday's 28% jump in price.</em></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>
</div>


Nearly a year after Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US)  announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from Tencent (700 HK), and around 9.5 months since entering into a definitive agreement for a Going-Private Transaction, the Offer has been granted unconditional approval by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR). 


This Merger is in the form of a short-form merger as per section 233(7) of the Companies Law of the Cayman Islands - there is no vote. With SAMR sign-off in the bag, this deal should become effective very shortly, and accordingly, is trading tight to terms.


Separately, Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) will pocket ~US$1.2bn from the merger via its 33.8% equity stake in Sogou, versus its current market cap of US$933mn. And that is after yesterday's 28% jump in price.



More below the fold.



Tencent/Sogou: And That's (Finally) A Wrap

<div>
<p>Back on the 27 July, Chinese search-engine <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sogou-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25996:1" rel="noopener">Sogou Inc (SOGO US)</a>, majority-owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115257193&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=6-K&amp;dateFiled=2020-09-29&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a definitive agreement for a "Going-Private Transaction" at US$9/share.</p>
<p>Additionally, Sohu entered into a SPA with Tencent concerning its stake in Sogou, which would result in Tencent holding not less than 90% of the voting power in Sogou. Therefore the Merger would be a short-form merger - there is no vote. Dissenting rights will, however, now be afforded following the Grand Court of  Cayman Islands ruling handed down on the 28 January this year and discussed in <em><a href="https://skr.ma/H7E1t" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now Permitted</a></em>. Sohu's privatisation of Changyou competed on the 17 April.</p>
</div><div>
<p>The deal appeared to be a lock, until Sogou's 1 December <a href="http://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&amp;ref=115473750&amp;type=PDF&amp;symbol=SOGO&amp;companyName=Sogou+Inc.+American+Depositary+Shares+each+representing+one+Class+A&amp;formType=SC+13E3%2FA&amp;dateFiled=2020-12-01&amp;CK=1713947" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEC filing</a>, wherein the termination date for the SPA was pushed out to 31 July, from 29 March previously, to allow clearance from the PRC regulatory authorities, specifically State Administration for Market Regulation or SAMR.</p>
<p>What seemed an ample extension at the time now appears less assured as SAMR bears down on the tech sector. </p>
<p>This muddies when (and potentially if) the merger goes through. Plus the knock-on effect to Sohu which would pocket ~US$1.2bn under the merger compared to its current maker cap of ~US$0.7bn.</p>
<p>But Tencent is unlikely to walk - not at this Offer price. </p>
</div><div><p>More below the fold.</p></div>


Back on the 27 July, Chinese search-engine Sogou Inc (SOGO US), majority-owned by Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)  and Tencent Holdings (700 HK), entered into a definitive agreement for a "Going-Private Transaction" at US$9/share.
Additionally, Sohu entered into a SPA with Tencent concerning its stake in Sogou, which would result in Tencent holding not less than 90% of the voting power in Sogou. Therefore the Merger would be a short-form merger - there is no vote. Dissenting rights will, however, now be afforded following the Grand Court of  Cayman Islands ruling handed down on the 28 January this year and discussed in Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now Permitted. Sohu's privatisation of Changyou competed on the 17 April.

The deal appeared to be a lock, until Sogou's 1 December SEC filing, wherein the termination date for the SPA was pushed out to 31 July, from 29 March previously, to allow clearance from the PRC regulatory authorities, specifically State Administration for Market Regulation or SAMR.
What seemed an ample extension at the time now appears less assured as SAMR bears down on the tech sector. 
This muddies when (and potentially if) the merger goes through. Plus the knock-on effect to Sohu which would pocket ~US$1.2bn under the merger compared to its current maker cap of ~US$0.7bn.
But Tencent is unlikely to walk - not at this Offer price. 
More below the fold.

Sohu/Sogou: Persuasive Situation Amid Ongoing Antitrust Investigations

<p>On the 24 January last year, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/changyou-com-ltd-ads" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19287:1" rel="noopener">Changyou.com (CYOU US)</a> <a href="http://ir.changyou.com/file/New-Comet-20200124.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a definitive agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sohu-com-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22853:1" rel="noopener">Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US)</a> at US$5.40/share, or US$10.80/ADS in cash. On the 14 April,  Sohu <a href="http://investors.sohu.com/static-files/4f6c805d-a81c-4799-a043-3d163d5702e7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the filing of the definitive plan of merger.</p>
<div>
<p>Sohu held 67.4% of shares out in Changyou via its A and B shares and 95.3% of the voting rights given the disproportionate voting power of the B shares. As Sohu held &gt;90% of the votes, the Offer was in the form of a short-form statutory merger under Cayman Law - i.e. approval from Changyou's shareholders was not required. No vote, no dissent. Done deal.</p>
<p><em><strong>But wait ...</strong></em></p>
<p>In a ruling handed down on the 28 January, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a 'short-form' merger <em>are</em> entitled to dissent. </p>
<blockquote>
<p>It would be absurd to exclude a dissentient member of a company subject to short-form merger from the protection of section 238 simply because, unlike in the case of a long-form merger, that member is not allowed to vote.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>The ruling has wide-ranging implications.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>

On the 24 January last year, Changyou.com (CYOU US) entered into a definitive agreement with Sohu.com Inc (SOHU US) at US$5.40/share, or US$10.80/ADS in cash. On the 14 April,  Sohu announced the filing of the definitive plan of merger.

Sohu held 67.4% of shares out in Changyou via its A and B shares and 95.3% of the voting rights given the disproportionate voting power of the B shares. As Sohu held &gt;90% of the votes, the Offer was in the form of a short-form statutory merger under Cayman Law - i.e. approval from Changyou's shareholders was not required. No vote, no dissent. Done deal.
But wait ...
In a ruling handed down on the 28 January, the Grand Court of the Cayman Islands concluded that shareholders of companies that undertake a 'short-form' merger are entitled to dissent. 

It would be absurd to exclude a dissentient member of a company subject to short-form merger from the protection of section 238 simply because, unlike in the case of a long-form merger, that member is not allowed to vote.

The ruling has wide-ranging implications.
More below the fold.


Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now Permitted

China

Sohu.com Limited operates as an online media search and game service group company. The Company provides online brand advertising services on personal computers and mobile devices. Sohu.com serves clients in the People's Republic of China.

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Sohu.com (SOHU US)

Negative EVs: JOYY & Sohu's Steep Discount To Net Cash

I'd tilt slightly towards Sohu. It did successfully sell Sogou; whereas Joyy failed to sell YY live. That may provide some insight as to how the...

David Blennerhassett

Sohu.com (SOHU US): Cashed Up As Tencent/Sogou Merger Completes

Would Zhang look to take the company private? If possible, I would. An Offer would be self-funding, and he further benefits via listing Changyou on...

David Blennerhassett

Tencent/Sogou: And That's (Finally) A Wrap

The gross spread to terms is only 1%, but this is a done deal. I think this can become effective in a matter of weeks. Sohu's NAV discount is at...

David Blennerhassett

Sohu/Sogou: Persuasive Situation Amid Ongoing Antitrust Investigations

Trading at a gross spread of 7.5%. Even assuming another six months out from here to complete the deal, that looks compelling. I still like Sohu...

David Blennerhassett

Changyou (CYOU US): Short-Form Merger Dissent Now Permitted

The Court rightfully concluded s.238 provides the right of dissent in a short-form merger. Offerors will now face the prospect of dissension from...

David Blennerhassett

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