Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet?</li>
<li>This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has begun to return as risks were initially overestimated.</li>
<li>Nuclear energy is likely an underappreciated theme in the new Trump administration, while tariff threats appear overblown.</li>
</ul>


The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet?
This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has begun to return as risks were initially overestimated.
Nuclear energy is likely an underappreciated theme in the new Trump administration, while tariff threats appear overblown.


The Drill: Commodities post Trump election

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>WTI futures dropped 4.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, pressured by a bleak demand outlook, a rising dollar, and weak economic data from China.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.00 from 0.66 (08/Nov) last week, as call volume dropped by 57.3% WoW and put volume fell by 35.4%.  </li>
<li>WTI OI PCR climbed to 0.86 from 0.77 (08/Nov) last week. Call OI fell by 37.9% WoW, while put OI fell by 29.9%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures dropped 4.77% for the week ending 15/Nov, pressured by a bleak demand outlook, a rising dollar, and weak economic data from China.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.00 from 0.66 (08/Nov) last week, as call volume dropped by 57.3% WoW and put volume fell by 35.4%.  
WTI OI PCR climbed to 0.86 from 0.77 (08/Nov) last week. Call OI fell by 37.9% WoW, while put OI fell by 29.9%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/46] WTI Dropped Amid Weak Demand Outlook and Strong Dollar

<ul>
<li>OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.</li>
<li>Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.</li>
<li>The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.</li>
</ul>


OPEC cut its 2024 demand growth forecast by 5.7%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly downgrade, while the EIA and IEA raised their forecasts by 7.6% and 7%, respectively.
Although the EIA and IEA raised 2024 demand projections, they lowered 2025 estimates. They anticipate an oversupplied oil market in 2025, with supply growth expected to outpace demand.
The EIA raised Q4 2024 oil price forecasts on geopolitical tensions and inventory withdrawals but cut post-Q2 2025 estimates due to expectations of rising inventories from higher output.


OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

<ul>
<li>The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.</li>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.</li>
<li>US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.</li>
</ul>


The US oil and gas rig count fell by 1 to 584 for the week ending on 15/Nov, after remaining steady for three weeks in a row.
For the week ending 08/Nov, US oil production inched down to 13.4m bpd after remaining at 13.5m bpd for four consecutive weeks.
US energy producers added two rigs in New Mexico and one in Pennsylvania while cutting two rigs in Texas and one each in Oklahoma and Utah.


US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

The Drill: Commodities post Trump election

The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet? This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/46] WTI Dropped Amid Weak Demand Outlook and Strong Dollar

WTI futures dropped 5.8% for the week ending on 15/Nov due to weak demand, a strong dollar, and poor Chinese economic data. The put/call volume...

Mint Finance

OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

OPEC cut its 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecast, while EIA and IEA raised projections for 2024 but lowered it for 2025. Supply is expected to...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

US oil and gas rig count drops slightly after remaining flat for straight weeks, US oil production slightly decreased but remains high.

Mint Finance

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Drill: Commodities post Trump election

The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet? This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/46] WTI Dropped Amid Weak Demand Outlook and Strong Dollar

​WTI futures dropped 5.8% for the week ending on 15/Nov due to weak demand, a strong dollar, and poor Chinese economic data. The put/call volume...

Mint Finance

OPEC Cuts 2024 Oil Demand Forecast Again; EIA and IEA Warn of Oil Oversupply in 2025

​OPEC cut its 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecast, while EIA and IEA raised projections for 2024 but lowered it for 2025. Supply is expected to...

Mint Finance

US Rig Count Falls After Remaining Steady for Three Consecutive Weeks

​US oil and gas rig count drops slightly after remaining flat for straight weeks, US oil production slightly decreased but remains high.

Mint Finance

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report

WTI futures dropped 5.8% for the week ending on 15/Nov due to weak demand, a strong dollar, and poor Chinese economic data. The put/call volume...

OPEC cut its 2024 and 2025 demand growth forecast, while EIA and IEA raised projections for 2024 but lowered it for 2025. Supply is expected to...

US oil and gas rig count drops slightly after remaining flat for straight weeks, US oil production slightly decreased but remains high.