Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Happy Friday and welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.</li><li>Many have been puzzled by the weakness in US markets towards the end of the week, with explanations largely pointing to an exhaustion of the Trump trade.</li><li>This trade had been roaring across USD, USD bond yields, USD equities, and Crypto.</li></ul>

Happy Friday and welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch.Many have been puzzled by the weakness in US markets towards the end of the week, with explanations largely pointing to an exhaustion of the Trump trade.This trade had been roaring across USD, USD bond yields, USD equities, and Crypto.

Portfolio Watch: Stay Composed—The Trump Trade Is Still ON

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.
US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

<ul><li>Following another reasonably hot U.S. CPI report yesterday, it’s time to dust off the old sell-side charlatan chart comparing today’s inflation to the 1970s.</li><li>Honestly, I find this comparison absurd in many ways, as the drivers of inflation are different now.</li><li>Still, there is an interesting resemblance, which got me thinking…Inflation in the U.S. is trending around 3-3.5%, and the Fed has made no progress over the past 3-4 months toward the 2% target.</li></ul>

Following another reasonably hot U.S. CPI report yesterday, it’s time to dust off the old sell-side charlatan chart comparing today’s inflation to the 1970s.Honestly, I find this comparison absurd in many ways, as the drivers of inflation are different now.Still, there is an interesting resemblance, which got me thinking…Inflation in the U.S. is trending around 3-3.5%, and the Fed has made no progress over the past 3-4 months toward the 2% target.

Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Before we get to Trump, we need to quickly discuss OPEC and their recent cut in demand forecasts.</li><li>This reduction hints at an unwillingness to increase production in the near future.</li><li>Saudi Arabia is key here, as it holds the largest excess capacity, and a production hike from them could swing the market and send prices below $50 USD in the blink of an eye.</li></ul>

Before we get to Trump, we need to quickly discuss OPEC and their recent cut in demand forecasts.This reduction hints at an unwillingness to increase production in the near future.Saudi Arabia is key here, as it holds the largest excess capacity, and a production hike from them could swing the market and send prices below $50 USD in the blink of an eye.

The Drill: A Look at Trump’s Policy and Their Impacts

<ul>
<li>WTI futures gained 1.3% for the week ending 08/Nov, boosted by OPEC’s output delay but weighed down by a strong dollar and weak economic data from China.</li>
<li>WTI options Put/Call volume ratio remained unchanged at 0.66 from last week (01/Nov), as call volume increased by 24.3% WoW and put volume grew by 24.7%.  </li>
<li>WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.77 from 0.75 (01/Nov) last week. Call OI grew by 4.8% WoW, while put OI rose by 7.4%.</li>
</ul>


WTI futures gained 1.3% for the week ending 08/Nov, boosted by OPEC’s output delay but weighed down by a strong dollar and weak economic data from China.
WTI options Put/Call volume ratio remained unchanged at 0.66 from last week (01/Nov), as call volume increased by 24.3% WoW and put volume grew by 24.7%.  
WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.77 from 0.75 (01/Nov) last week. Call OI grew by 4.8% WoW, while put OI rose by 7.4%.


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/45] WTI Uptrend Halted by Strong Dollar and Weak Economic Data

United States

Crude oil is a naturally occurring, unrefined petroleum product composed of hydrocarbon deposits and other organic materials. Crude oil can be refined to produce usable products such as gasoline, diesel and various forms of petrochemicals. It is a nonrenewable resource, also known as a fossil fuel, which means that it can't be replaced naturally at the rate we consume it and is therefore a limited resource.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Crude Oil (CL1 COM COMDTY)

Portfolio Watch: Stay Composed—The Trump Trade Is Still ON

Happy Friday and welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch. Many have been puzzled by the weakness in US markets towards the end of the week, with...

Steno Research

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target

Following another reasonably hot U.S. CPI report yesterday, it’s time to dust off the old sell-side charlatan chart comparing today’s inflation to...

Steno Research

The Drill: A Look at Trump’s Policy and Their Impacts

Production hikes means the end of OPEC; we present a long list of what to expect on the geopolitical front from Trump; on trade/economy don’t...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/45] WTI Uptrend Halted by Strong Dollar and Weak Economic Data

WTI prices ended the week higher but faced strong downward pressure from a rising dollar and economic weakness from China. The put-call volume...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Portfolio Watch: Stay Composed—The Trump Trade Is Still ON

Happy Friday and welcome to our weekly Portfolio Watch. Many have been puzzled by the weakness in US markets towards the end of the week, with...

Steno Research

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target

Following another reasonably hot U.S. CPI report yesterday, it’s time to dust off the old sell-side charlatan chart comparing today’s inflation to...

Steno Research

The Drill: A Look at Trump’s Policy and Their Impacts

Production hikes means the end of OPEC; we present a long list of what to expect on the geopolitical front from Trump; on trade/economy don’t...

Steno Research

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/45] WTI Uptrend Halted by Strong Dollar and Weak Economic Data

WTI prices ended the week higher but faced strong downward pressure from a rising dollar and economic weakness from China. The put-call volume...

Mint Finance

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....