Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s <strong>31 July 2025</strong> policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.</li>
<li>The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.</li>
<li>With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.</li>
</ul>


Ahead of the Bank of Japan’s 31 July 2025 policy meeting, markets broadly expect rates to remain on hold at 0.5%.
The new US–Japan trade deal may influence the tone of the upcoming quarterly outlook—if not the rate decision itself.
With limited precedent for rate changes but a high rate of surprises when they do occur, this Insight combines historical data with option-implied volatility to help investors assess tail risks.


Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Upper House elections are drawing increased scrutiny due to heightened focus on fiscal finances.</li>
<li>We examine how risk is being priced across Japanese markets and in particular in Nikkei225 options.</li>
<li>Volatility risk appears asymmetric, and we outline ways to mitigate or potentially profit from it.</li>
</ul>


Upper House elections are drawing increased scrutiny due to heightened focus on fiscal finances.
We examine how risk is being priced across Japanese markets and in particular in Nikkei225 options.
Volatility risk appears asymmetric, and we outline ways to mitigate or potentially profit from it.


Nikkei225 and Election: Hedging Activity and Implieds Flag Opportunity

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> bounced this week, after 2 weeks down, after previously reaching a peak at 40852, the area above 41k has been a strong barrier since 2024.</li>
<li>Our model says the current Nikkei 225 trend could rise to 41k, or even above 41k.</li>
<li><strong>The index's latest 2-week pullback was shallow and did not even reach our model's Q2 support level, this is a bullish behavior (buy the dip).</strong></li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) bounced this week, after 2 weeks down, after previously reaching a peak at 40852, the area above 41k has been a strong barrier since 2024.
Our model says the current Nikkei 225 trend could rise to 41k, or even above 41k.
The index's latest 2-week pullback was shallow and did not even reach our model's Q2 support level, this is a bullish behavior (buy the dip).


Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k

<ul>
<li>Seasonal weakness and failure at highs support a tactical short.</li>
<li>July has historically been weak for the Nikkei in both price and realized vol; Trump-era data showed summer vol was suppressed.</li>
<li>We propose a tactical trade that aligns with the current setup and supportive price and volatility seasonals.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal weakness and failure at highs support a tactical short.
July has historically been weak for the Nikkei in both price and realized vol; Trump-era data showed summer vol was suppressed.
We propose a tactical trade that aligns with the current setup and supportive price and volatility seasonals.


Nikkei: Failed Breakout and Summer Seasonals Signal Opportunity

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>Steepening of the dividend curve this week as NKY is moving higher.                              </li><li>Volumes were up with 1605 lots trading (803x on 2025 &amp; 536x on 2025).</li><li>Nikkei Dividend Yield is now 2.05%</li></ul>

Steepening of the dividend curve this week as NKY is moving higher.                              Volumes were up with 1605 lots trading (803x on 2025 &amp; 536x on 2025).Nikkei Dividend Yield is now 2.05%

VCM: Nikkei Dividends Update (Jun 24th – Jul 1st)

Japan

The Nikkei-225 Stock Average is a price-weighted average of 225 top-rated Japanese companies listed in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei Stock Average was first published on May 16, 1949, where the average price was ¥176.21 with a divisor of 225. 

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei225 and Election: Hedging Activity and Implieds Flag Opportunity

With election risk building, we examine how the Nikkei options market is pricing in uncertainty—and where opportunities may lie

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k

The Nikkei 225 bounced after 2-week dip, it could rise above 41k according to scenarios designed by our model. The latest shallow pullback was...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei: Failed Breakout and Summer Seasonals Signal Opportunity

Tactical short position is recommended in the Nikkei due to historical weakness in July and suppressed summer volatility.

John Ley

VCM: Nikkei Dividends Update (Jun 24th – Jul 1st)

Steepening of the dividend curve this week as NKY is moving higher. Volumes were up with 1605 lots trading (803x on 2025 & 536x on...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Bank of Japan’s Rate Decision on 31 July: Market Calm, Watch for Tail Risk

Reminder: The Bank of Japan’s policy decision is due today around noon (31 July). Markets remain calm, with the Nikkei 225 and implied volatility...

Gaudenz Schneider

Nikkei225 and Election: Hedging Activity and Implieds Flag Opportunity

With election risk building, we examine how the Nikkei options market is pricing in uncertainty—and where opportunities may lie

John Ley

Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k

​The Nikkei 225 bounced after 2-week dip, it could rise above 41k according to scenarios designed by our model. The latest shallow pullback was...

Nico Rosti

Nikkei: Failed Breakout and Summer Seasonals Signal Opportunity

Tactical short position is recommended in the Nikkei due to historical weakness in July and suppressed summer volatility.

John Ley

VCM: Nikkei Dividends Update (Jun 24th – Jul 1st)

Steepening of the dividend curve this week as NKY is moving higher. Volumes were up with 1605 lots trading (803x on 2025 & 536x on...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

The Nikkei 225 bounced after 2-week dip, it could rise above 41k according to scenarios designed by our model. The latest shallow pullback was...