IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

China Traditional Chinese Medicine / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-traditional-chinese-medicine" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:351:1" rel="noopener">China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK)</a> has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.</li>
<li>This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. </li>
<li>Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.</li>
</ul>


Shockingly, the Sinopharm-led consortium’s offer for China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has lapsed as the precondition long stop date has not been extended.
This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. 
Shareholders will have a bruising Monday. Our analysis suggests a deal break price of around HK$3.44, a 10% downside to the last close.


China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  </li>
<li>Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.</li>
<li>Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.</li>
</ul>


Due to the popularity of GLP-1 target, the entire GLP-1 upstream and downstream industry chain has received great enthusiasm. We analyzed related investment opportunities but also concerns in this market.  
Domestic CXOs should focus on securing orders for overseas weight loss drugs. The market value increment brought by weight loss drugs to CXO should be higher than that of APIs.
Due to increasing competition/potential price war, how big the real market space is uncertain. So, the market value increment of weight loss drugs business for pharmaceutical companies could be lower-than-expected.


China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cspc-pharmaceutical-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:229:1" rel="noopener">CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK)</a> 9M25 revenue dropped 12% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.</li>
<li>Pressure on revenue will continue to be felt. Newly launched products, pipeline strength and out licensing opportunities would help ward off the effects of lower revenues from finished drugs.</li>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices. Pivotal data read outs awaited.</li>
</ul>



CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) 9M25 revenue dropped 12% YoY as finished drugs witnessed decrease on VBP and NRDL inclusion. Bulk products and license fees compensated to an extent.
Pressure on revenue will continue to be felt. Newly launched products, pipeline strength and out licensing opportunities would help ward off the effects of lower revenues from finished drugs.
CSPC Pharmaceutical aims to expand into the high-end market to achieve competitive differentiation and thereby command higher prices. Pivotal data read outs awaited.


CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 9M25 Remain Subdued on Finished Drugs; Key Pivotal Data Read Outs Awaited

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> proposed to spin-off and separately list the shares of Mandi, a subsidiary of the company.</li>
<li>In 2024 and 1H25, Mandi contributed 16% and 17% of total consolidated sales respectively, while its EBITDA contribution was 14.4% (in 2024) and 11.5% (in 1H25).</li>
<li>As far as 3SBio (ex-Mandi) is concerned, marketing approvals for key pipeline product like SSGJ-608, along with indication expansion, geographical expansion of few drugs will be key in near term.</li>
</ul>



3SBio Inc (1530 HK) proposed to spin-off and separately list the shares of Mandi, a subsidiary of the company.
In 2024 and 1H25, Mandi contributed 16% and 17% of total consolidated sales respectively, while its EBITDA contribution was 14.4% (in 2024) and 11.5% (in 1H25).
As far as 3SBio (ex-Mandi) is concerned, marketing approvals for key pipeline product like SSGJ-608, along with indication expansion, geographical expansion of few drugs will be key in near term.


3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Proposed Mandi Spin Off and Listing Sensible; 3SBio Ex Mandi Formidable Enough

<ul>
<li>3SBio will spin-off and separately list the shares of Mandi, a subsidiary of the company. Celltrion got EC approval for Remsima IV liquid, world’s first liquid formulation of IV infliximab.</li>
<li>Hanmi Pharmaceutical is acquiring all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Aptose Biosciences that are not currently owned or controlled by Hanmi.</li>
<li>Otsuka got CHMP positive opinion for donidalorsen for the prevention of recurrent attacks of HAE. CSL plans to expand U.S. presence over the next five years, with ~$1.5B U.S. capex.</li>
</ul>


3SBio will spin-off and separately list the shares of Mandi, a subsidiary of the company. Celltrion got EC approval for Remsima IV liquid, world’s first liquid formulation of IV infliximab.
Hanmi Pharmaceutical is acquiring all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Aptose Biosciences that are not currently owned or controlled by Hanmi.
Otsuka got CHMP positive opinion for donidalorsen for the prevention of recurrent attacks of HAE. CSL plans to expand U.S. presence over the next five years, with ~$1.5B U.S. capex.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 23) – 3SBio, Celltrion, Hanmi Pharm, HK Inno.N, Otsuka, CSL

Hong Kong

Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited, through its subsidiaries, researches, develops, produces, and sells biopharmaceutical products for the medical treatment of ophthalmia, as well as modernized Chinese medicine and chemical medicine for the treatment of hepatitis.

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Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. Shareholders will have a bruising...

Arun George

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 9M25 Remain Subdued on Finished Drugs; Key Pivotal Data Read Outs Awaited

CSPC Pharmaceutical's revenue dropped 12% YoY due to finished drugs decline, but bulk products and license fees helped compensate. Focus on new...

Tina Banerjee

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Proposed Mandi Spin Off and Listing Sensible; 3SBio Ex Mandi Formidable Enough

3SBio plan to spin-off and separately list shares of subsidiary Mandi, which contributed 17% of sales and 11.5% of EBITDA. Approvals and expansion...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 23) – 3SBio, Celltrion, Hanmi Pharm, HK Inno.N, Otsuka, CSL

3SBio will spin-off and separately list its subsidiary. Celltrion got EC approval for Remsima IV liquid. Hanmi Pharm is acquiring Aptose...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK): Disaster as Offer Lapses, Potential Deal Break Price

This deal break caught many, including me, off guard. There are lessons to be learnt and questions to be asked. Shareholders will have a bruising...

Arun George

China's Weight Loss Drug Market – The Investment Opportunities and the Risks Behind

The GLP-1 target has been recognized as a blockbuster target, which has attracted great enthusiasm from investors.We analyzed related investment...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

CSPC Pharma (1093 HK): 9M25 Remain Subdued on Finished Drugs; Key Pivotal Data Read Outs Awaited

​CSPC Pharmaceutical's revenue dropped 12% YoY due to finished drugs decline, but bulk products and license fees helped compensate. Focus on new...

Tina Banerjee

3SBio Inc (1530 HK): Proposed Mandi Spin Off and Listing Sensible; 3SBio Ex Mandi Formidable Enough

​3SBio plan to spin-off and separately list shares of subsidiary Mandi, which contributed 17% of sales and 11.5% of EBITDA. Approvals and expansion...

Tina Banerjee

APAC Healthcare Weekly (November 23) – 3SBio, Celltrion, Hanmi Pharm, HK Inno.N, Otsuka, CSL

3SBio will spin-off and separately list its subsidiary. Celltrion got EC approval for Remsima IV liquid. Hanmi Pharm is acquiring Aptose...

Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharmaceutical's revenue dropped 12% YoY due to finished drugs decline, but bulk products and license fees helped compensate. Focus on new...

3SBio plan to spin-off and separately list shares of subsidiary Mandi, which contributed 17% of sales and 11.5% of EBITDA. Approvals and expansion...