Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)</a> granted an exclusive worldwide license to develop, manufacture, and commercialize HS-20094, an investigational dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist.</li>
<li>Globally, the only approved dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist is Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which garnered revenue of $4.9B in 2024, with a potential of peak global sales of $27.2B by 2030.</li>
<li>Hansoh’s mainstay drug Ameile was approved for an additional indication of treatment of adult patients with stage II to IIIB NSCLC whose tumors have EGFR mutations.</li>
</ul>



Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) granted an exclusive worldwide license to develop, manufacture, and commercialize HS-20094, an investigational dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist.
Globally, the only approved dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist is Eli Lilly’s Zepbound, which garnered revenue of $4.9B in 2024, with a potential of peak global sales of $27.2B by 2030.
Hansoh’s mainstay drug Ameile was approved for an additional indication of treatment of adult patients with stage II to IIIB NSCLC whose tumors have EGFR mutations.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Outlicensing and Indication Expansion Of Core Drug Augur Well

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Mandi’s business is quite focused. In the short-term, Minoxidil will continue to be the main performance driver for Mandi. The performance contribution of Winlevi and Mandi’s semaglutide would be uncertain. </li>
<li>The concern here is the declining growth rate due to VBP and increasing competition. Based on our forecast, growth of the next three years would be maintained at 15-20% YoY.</li>
<li>An aggressive valuation range for Mandi is RMB34-43 billion. However, due to VBP/increasing competition, a relatively conservative P/S range is 10-20x. If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB17.2-34.3 billion.</li>
</ul>


Mandi’s business is quite focused. In the short-term, Minoxidil will continue to be the main performance driver for Mandi. The performance contribution of Winlevi and Mandi’s semaglutide would be uncertain. 
The concern here is the declining growth rate due to VBP and increasing competition. Based on our forecast, growth of the next three years would be maintained at 15-20% YoY.
An aggressive valuation range for Mandi is RMB34-43 billion. However, due to VBP/increasing competition, a relatively conservative P/S range is 10-20x. If based on 2025 forecast, valuation is RMB17.2-34.3 billion.


Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> announced the placement of 105.2M shares for subscription at HK$29.62 per share.</li>
<li>The company intends to use 80% of the net proceeds for R&amp;D-related expenditures on innovative drug candidates and the rest 20% for working capital and other general corporate purpose.</li>
<li>The placement provides an indirect way of subscribing to Mandi shares. We reiterate our bullish stance on 3SBio with a 25-30% upside scope in the near term.</li>
</ul>



3SBio Inc (1530 HK) announced the placement of 105.2M shares for subscription at HK$29.62 per share.
The company intends to use 80% of the net proceeds for R&amp;D-related expenditures on innovative drug candidates and the rest 20% for working capital and other general corporate purpose.
The placement provides an indirect way of subscribing to Mandi shares. We reiterate our bullish stance on 3SBio with a 25-30% upside scope in the near term.


3SBio (1530 HK) Placement: 3SBio’s Pipeline Strength, An Indirect Stake in Mandi Makes It Attractive

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hansoh-pharmaceutical-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23675:1" rel="noopener">Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)</a> reported 33% YoY net profit growth to RMB4.4B on 21% YoY revenue growth to RMB12.3B in 2024. Oncology revenue jumped 32% YoY to RMB8.1B.</li>
<li>Revenue from innovative drugs zoomed 38% YoY to RMB9.5B and its proportion to total revenue increased to 77.3% in 2024 from 67.9% in 2023.</li>
<li>In 2024, three key innovative drug candidates entered the phase 3 clinical stage for the first time. Hansoh will continue to focus on R&amp;D of innovative drugs and internationalization strategy.</li>
</ul>



Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK) reported 33% YoY net profit growth to RMB4.4B on 21% YoY revenue growth to RMB12.3B in 2024. Oncology revenue jumped 32% YoY to RMB8.1B.
Revenue from innovative drugs zoomed 38% YoY to RMB9.5B and its proportion to total revenue increased to 77.3% in 2024 from 67.9% in 2023.
In 2024, three key innovative drug candidates entered the phase 3 clinical stage for the first time. Hansoh will continue to focus on R&amp;D of innovative drugs and internationalization strategy.


Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Innovative Drugs Drive 2024 Performance; Outlook Is Positive

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

China

Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited operates as a pharmaceutical company. The Company manufactures and sells anti-infectives, anti-neoplastic agents, diabetes drugs, and other products. Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group markets its products throughout China.

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group (3692 HK)

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Outlicensing and Indication Expansion Of Core Drug Augur Well

Hansoh Pharma grants license for dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist to Regeneron, aiming to tap global weight loss market. Flagship drug Ameile also...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation

Mandi's short-term success hinges on Minoxidil, but uncertainty looms with Winlevi and semaglutide. Growth may slow due to VBP and competition. A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

3SBio (1530 HK) Placement: 3SBio’s Pipeline Strength, An Indirect Stake in Mandi Makes It Attractive

3SBio Inc announces placement of 105.2M shares at HK$29.62/share for R&D and working capital. Placement attractive given 3SBio's pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Innovative Drugs Drive 2024 Performance; Outlook Is Positive

Hansoh Pharma reported 33% YoY net profit growth on 21% YoY revenue growth in 2024. Revenue from innovative drugs grew 38% YoY and its proportion...

Tina Banerjee

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Outlicensing and Indication Expansion Of Core Drug Augur Well

​Hansoh Pharma grants license for dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist to Regeneron, aiming to tap global weight loss market. Flagship drug Ameile also...

Tina Banerjee

Pre-IPO Mandi Inc. - The Business Model, the Concerns and the Valuation

​Mandi's short-term success hinges on Minoxidil, but uncertainty looms with Winlevi and semaglutide. Growth may slow due to VBP and competition. A...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

3SBio (1530 HK) Placement: 3SBio’s Pipeline Strength, An Indirect Stake in Mandi Makes It Attractive

​3SBio Inc announces placement of 105.2M shares at HK$29.62/share for R&D and working capital. Placement attractive given 3SBio's pipeline...

Tina Banerjee

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK): Innovative Drugs Drive 2024 Performance; Outlook Is Positive

Hansoh Pharma reported 33% YoY net profit growth on 21% YoY revenue growth in 2024. Revenue from innovative drugs grew 38% YoY and its proportion...

Tina Banerjee

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

Hansoh Pharma grants license for dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist to Regeneron, aiming to tap global weight loss market. Flagship drug Ameile also...

Mandi's short-term success hinges on Minoxidil, but uncertainty looms with Winlevi and semaglutide. Growth may slow due to VBP and competition. A...

3SBio Inc announces placement of 105.2M shares at HK$29.62/share for R&D and working capital. Placement attractive given 3SBio's pipeline...