Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a>'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.</li>
<li>Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a> is in play.</li>
<li>A HUGE new buyback for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-paint-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13340:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Paint (4613 JP)</a>. Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. </li>
</ul>


Colour me perplexed. Murakami Group ran up Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)'s share price in acquiring 29%. The pattern was clear, but one assumes everyone in-group was on the same page.
Two activist shareholders. And long only upping its stake. Heavily discounted China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) is in play.
A HUGE new buyback for Kansai Paint (4613 JP). Really big. Buy Kansai Paint vs Nippon Paint. One can buy the pop. One can buy any dips after the pop. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-corp-e3b4f84d-56b4-4ae2-87f3-1c3e83138aea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25297:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield (BN CN)</a> has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/neoen-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33002:1" rel="noopener">Neoen (NEOEN FP)</a> to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.</li>
<li>The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.</li>
<li>Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).</li>
</ul>



Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share, 26.9% premium, which will trigger a mandatory offer.
The offer represents 15.1x EV/NTM Fwd EBITDA vs. the median of peers at 9.3x. My fair-value estimate (DCF-based) is €33.76/share, therefore the offer is generous, in my view.
Expect the shares to close the spread tomorrow and trade around 3% gross spread and the convertibles to price higher (2% 06/25 at around €51.85, 2.875% 09/27 around 111.72%).


Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> is on a trading halt. Press reports suggest a consortium featuring Starwood Capital Group and SSW Partners is considering a buyout.</li>
<li>Starwood and SSW are approaching other shareholders to join the consortium. The other members are likely Warburg Pincus, OMERS, Jinchu Shen, and Hwee Chiang Lim.</li>
<li>The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed. </li>
</ul>



ESR Group (1821 HK) is on a trading halt. Press reports suggest a consortium featuring Starwood Capital Group and SSW Partners is considering a buyout.
Starwood and SSW are approaching other shareholders to join the consortium. The other members are likely Warburg Pincus, OMERS, Jinchu Shen, and Hwee Chiang Lim.
The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed. 


ESR Group (1821 HK): Starwood Capital and SSW Partners Gauging a Privatisation Bid

Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality stocks.</li><li>Although Andrew acknowledged that the title might be seen as provocative, he raised valid concerns about the potential challenges of achieving satisfactory returns in the future by investing in quality-growth-at-a-reasonable-price stocks, given their lofty valuations.</li><li>As an example, he pointed to Costco, which is presently trading at a P/E ratio of 50 despite its long-term expected growth rate only slightly surpassing that of the US GDP.</li></ul>

I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality stocks.Although Andrew acknowledged that the title might be seen as provocative, he raised valid concerns about the potential challenges of achieving satisfactory returns in the future by investing in quality-growth-at-a-reasonable-price stocks, given their lofty valuations.As an example, he pointed to Costco, which is presently trading at a P/E ratio of 50 despite its long-term expected growth rate only slightly surpassing that of the US GDP.

<ul>
<li>On 21 February, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-21/esr-owners-said-to-mull-options-for-5-billion-logistics-firm?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bloomberg reported</a> that due to the steep share price declines, major <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> shareholders are considering options for their stakes, including ESR’s privatisation.</li>
<li>The reports also noted buyer interest in ESR’s significant assets. Past share dealings suggest that Warburg Pincus and the co-founders are the likely consortium to lead a potential privatisation. </li>
<li>The offer probability is low as a scheme would likely require a HK$16.00 offer, posing a funding challenge. Nevertheless, the upside remains as ESR trades at an undemanding valuation. </li>
</ul>


On 21 February, Bloomberg reported that due to the steep share price declines, major ESR Group (1821 HK) shareholders are considering options for their stakes, including ESR’s privatisation.
The reports also noted buyer interest in ESR’s significant assets. Past share dealings suggest that Warburg Pincus and the co-founders are the likely consortium to lead a potential privatisation. 
The offer probability is low as a scheme would likely require a HK$16.00 offer, posing a funding challenge. Nevertheless, the upside remains as ESR trades at an undemanding valuation. 


ESR Group (1821 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

Canada

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, China Merchants,Kansai Paint, Teijin, Sciclone Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield to Launch Mandatory Offer for Neoen

Brookfield (BN CN) has entered exclusive negotiations with the top shareholders of Neoen (NEOEN FP) to acquire a 53.32% stake at €39.85/share,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

ESR Group (1821 HK): Starwood Capital and SSW Partners Gauging a Privatisation Bid

The offer is likely to be structured as a Cayman privatisation scheme. Our best guess is that an offer of at least HK$14.00 per share would be needed.

Arun George

Portfolio Update: April 2024

I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality...

Contrarian Cashflows

ESR Group (1821 HK): Evaluating a Potential Privatisation

The offer probability is low as a scheme would likely require a HK$16.00 offer, posing a funding challenge. Nevertheless, the upside remains as ESR...

Arun George

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