Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by infrastructure, but with housing also now picking up.</li>
<li>Sales of excavators reached a 15-year high - Komatsu reported real-time utilization rates on its machines in China soaring 85% y/y last month</li>
<li>Housing sales by value rose 22.7% y/y for Jan/Feb and investment in real-estate development rose 8.9% in the first two months, versus 6.9% over last year.</li>
<li>Prices seem to be…</li>
</ul>


Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by infrastructure, but with housing also now picking up.
Sales of excavators reached a 15-year high - Komatsu reported real-time utilization rates on its machines in China soaring 85% y/y last month
Housing sales by value rose 22.7% y/y for Jan/Feb and investment in real-estate development rose 8.9% in the first two months, versus 6.9% over last year.
Prices seem to be…


As China Digs for Growth, Can Korea Break Chaebol Dominance?

<ul>
<li>The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.</li>
<li>The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.</li>
<li>The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.</li>
<li>Overall, the US…</li>
</ul>


The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on discretionary spending.
The US yield curve is flattening, overall bank credit growth has been negative for two months and yesterday’s January consumer lending data was about half consensus expectations.
The global mining sector has been selling off as expected with iron ore/copper prices – I remain tactically short the FTSE 350 mining index.
Overall, the US…


US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">
Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…</li>
</ul>


Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance art.
As the lack of policy coherence or even consistency becomes painfully clear, investors risk a degree of buyer’s remorse, reflected in the stalling USD, financials etc. rallies.

Globally, the macro and inflation data surprise indices have spiked further YTD - the turnaround in the Eurozone is the most impressive and least expected by the consensus or…


'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP, and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates that back into investor currency on a given end date. Change in the value at end date vs start date in investor currency represents the approximate currency impact, not adjusted for any transaction or other costs…

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP, and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor uses his/her domestic 'investor' currency to buy assets in 'investment' currency at a spot rate on a given start date and then repatriates that back into investor currency on a given end date. Change in the value at end date vs start date in investor currency represents the approximate currency impact, not adjusted for any transaction or other costs…

4 Months After Brexit - Currency Impact Tables For International Property Investors

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Shareholders have approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT (NSR AU)</a>'s acquisition by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brookfield-asset-management-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23741:1" rel="noopener">Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)</a>/GIC, and NSR will stop trading after the close on 21 April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-storage-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13762:1" rel="noopener">National Storage REIT</a> will be replaced by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> pips <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kingsgate-consolidated-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12544:1" rel="noopener">Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU)</a> for the index spot. </li>
<li>Positioning has increased (probably not enough), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alkane-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19111:1" rel="noopener">Alkane Resources (ALK AU)</a> has outperformed peers in the short-term. There could be some more upside before the stock underperforms peers.</li>
</ul>


Shareholders have approved National Storage REIT (NSR AU)'s acquisition by Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)/GIC, and NSR will stop trading after the close on 21 April.

National Storage REIT will be replaced by Alkane Resources (ALK AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX200 INDEX). Alkane Resources (ALK AU) pips Kingsgate Consolidated (KCN AU) for the index spot. 
Positioning has increased (probably not enough), and Alkane Resources (ALK AU) has outperformed peers in the short-term. There could be some more upside before the stock underperforms peers.


ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Alkane Resources (ALK) Replaces National Storage REIT (NSR)

Canada

Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. operates as an investment management firm. The Company focuses on property development, renewable energy, infrastructure, insurance, and private equity. Brookfield Asset Management serves customers worldwide.

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Brookfield Asset Management Lt (BAM US)

As China Digs for Growth, Can Korea Break Chaebol Dominance?

Both the surge in industrial commodity imports and excavator sales in February confirm the rebound in Chinese fixed investment led by...

Sean Maher

US Healthcare Overhaul Stumbling, Singapore Cyclical Rally Looking Premature

The Republican replacement for ‘Obamacare’ has been announced and looks an incoherent mess – resurgent healthcare inflation will be a drag on...

Sean Maher

'America First' Agenda Remains Contradictory, Vietnam Trip Notes…

Wall Street has projected its wildest fantasies onto the largely blank canvas Trump provided, but this is politics reinvented as performance...

Sean Maher

4 Months After Brexit - Currency Impact Tables For International Property Investors

We have updated our currency impact tables 'post-Brexit' for USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, GBP, and CNY. We make a simple assumption that a property investor...

Robert Ciemniak

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Alkane Resources (ALK) Replaces National Storage REIT (NSR)

Alkane Resources will be added to the ASX200 at the close on 21 April. Positioning has increased (but not enough) and the stock has outperformed...

Brian Freitas

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