Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe all business, including smartphone and vehicle, will grow strongly in 4Q24 and 2025.</li>
<li>We expect EPS will increase by 15% YoY in 4Q24 and 41% in 2025.</li>
<li>However, we believe the market overvalues the newly launched vehicle business.</li>
</ul>


We believe all business, including smartphone and vehicle, will grow strongly in 4Q24 and 2025.
We expect EPS will increase by 15% YoY in 4Q24 and 41% in 2025.
However, we believe the market overvalues the newly launched vehicle business.


Xiaomi (1810 HK): 4Q24 Preview, All Businesses Healthy, But Vehicle Overvalued

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp</li>
<li>In the US, the second estimate for Q4/24 real GDP was unchanged from the advance estimate at an annualised rate of 2.3% q-o-q, driven by a 4.2% increase (unchanged) in consumer spending. That said, the core PCE price index was revised upwards to 2.7% (from 2.5% in the advance estimate).</li>
<li>Full-year real GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.8% y-o-y (vs. 2.9% in 2023). Separately, durable goods orders rose 3.1% m-o-m in January (2.0% e / -1.8% p).</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp
In the US, the second estimate for Q4/24 real GDP was unchanged from the advance estimate at an annualised rate of 2.3% q-o-q, driven by a 4.2% increase (unchanged) in consumer spending. That said, the core PCE price index was revised upwards to 2.7% (from 2.5% in the advance estimate).
Full-year real GDP growth in 2024 stood at 2.8% y-o-y (vs. 2.9% in 2023). Separately, durable goods orders rose 3.1% m-o-m in January (2.0% e / -1.8% p).


Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>This Insight analyses <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.</li>
<li>These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Strategies are mostly bullish, and exclusively long volatility despite implied volatility in its 98th percentile.</li>
<li>Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders expect the rally, driven by its own momentum, to peak. One trade suggests a ceiling of 70 by mid-year. </li>
</ul>


This Insight analyses Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) tailor-made option strategies traded over the last five trading days on the Hong Kong Exchange. Strategy highlights and volatility context are provided.
These traders tailor structures to risk budgets and take calculated bets. Strategies are mostly bullish, and exclusively long volatility despite implied volatility in its 98th percentile.
Call spreads can indicate where bullish traders expect the rally, driven by its own momentum, to peak. One trade suggests a ceiling of 70 by mid-year. 


Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Riding the Wave. How Option Traders Navigate. Top Trades Analyzed.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Xiaomi will report 4Q24 results on 18 Mar. We estimate 4Q revenue/adj. net profit to grow 42%/44% YoY to RMB 103.9bn/7.0bn, 0.5%/9% above Bloomberg consensus, driven by a better mix in smartphones, China subsidies for smartphones/IoT and stronger EV GPM</li><li>. Looking ahead to FY25E, we remain positive on 1) Smartphone: global share gains and an improving mix, backed by its flagship models and expansion in LATAM/EMEA/SEA; 2) IoT: China national subsidies, AI smart glasses and overseas expansion; and 3) Smart EV: strong backlog of SU7, launch of SUV YU7 and improving profitability. Overall, we are confident on Xiaomi’s core biz strength and growth momentum of EV business.</li><li>We lift FY24-27E EPS by 8-22% to reflect a better product mix and stronger EV margin. Reiterate BUY and raise SOTP-based TP to HK$ 54.53 for higher EPS estimates and sector re-rating, implying 33.9x FY25E P/E. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Xiaomi will report 4Q24 results on 18 Mar. We estimate 4Q revenue/adj. net profit to grow 42%/44% YoY to RMB 103.9bn/7.0bn, 0.5%/9% above Bloomberg consensus, driven by a better mix in smartphones, China subsidies for smartphones/IoT and stronger EV GPM. Looking ahead to FY25E, we remain positive on 1) Smartphone: global share gains and an improving mix, backed by its flagship models and expansion in LATAM/EMEA/SEA; 2) IoT: China national subsidies, AI smart glasses and overseas expansion; and 3) Smart EV: strong backlog of SU7, launch of SUV YU7 and improving profitability. Overall, we are confident on Xiaomi’s core biz strength and growth momentum of EV business.We lift FY24-27E EPS by 8-22% to reflect a better product mix and stronger EV margin. Reiterate BUY and raise SOTP-based TP to HK$ 54.53 for higher EPS estimates and sector re-rating, implying 33.9x FY25E P/E. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - 4Q24 Preview: Expect Another Strong Beat; Raise TP to HK$54.53

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>In Q4 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> ranked fourth in China (mainland) smart phone market, achieving the highest annual growth among the top vendors at 29%.</li>
<li>Chinese government's recently expanded subsidy program now covers smartphones and wearables, with a 15% subsidy for products priced under CNY6,000. This could boost demand growth in 2025.</li>
<li>China's smartphone market rebounded in 2024, driven by affordable premium designs driving upgrade demand in the mass market while innovations like GenAI, foldables, and proprietary systems attracted high-end users.</li>
</ul>


In Q4 2024, Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) ranked fourth in China (mainland) smart phone market, achieving the highest annual growth among the top vendors at 29%.
Chinese government's recently expanded subsidy program now covers smartphones and wearables, with a 15% subsidy for products priced under CNY6,000. This could boost demand growth in 2025.
China's smartphone market rebounded in 2024, driven by affordable premium designs driving upgrade demand in the mass market while innovations like GenAI, foldables, and proprietary systems attracted high-end users.


Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 4Q24 Preview, All Businesses Healthy, But Vehicle Overvalued

We believe all business, including smartphone and vehicle, will grow strongly in 4Q24 and 2025. However, we believe the market overvalues the newly...

Ming Lu

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp In the US, the second estimate...

Lucror Analytics

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Riding the Wave. How Option Traders Navigate. Top Trades Analyzed.

Analysis of Xiaomi Corp's option strategies on HK Exchange shows bullish traders taking calculated bets despite high volatility, with call spreads...

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - 4Q24 Preview: Expect Another Strong Beat; Raise TP to HK$54.53

Xiaomi will report 4Q24 results on 18 Mar. We estimate 4Q revenue/adj. net profit to grow 42%/44% YoY to RMB 103.9bn/7.0bn, 0.5%/9% above Bloomberg...

CMB International

Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025

As Xiaomi's stock hits new highs, drawing investor attention to our recent insight that highlighted how it would be a prime beneficiary of...

Devi Subhakesan

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 4Q24 Preview, All Businesses Healthy, But Vehicle Overvalued

We believe all business, including smartphone and vehicle, will grow strongly in 4Q24 and 2025. However, we believe the market overvalues the newly...

Ming Lu

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Xiaomi Corp In the US, the second estimate...

Lucror Analytics

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - Riding the Wave. How Option Traders Navigate. Top Trades Analyzed.

​Analysis of Xiaomi Corp's option strategies on HK Exchange shows bullish traders taking calculated bets despite high volatility, with call spreads...

Gaudenz Schneider

Xiaomi (1810 HK) - 4Q24 Preview: Expect Another Strong Beat; Raise TP to HK$54.53

Xiaomi will report 4Q24 results on 18 Mar. We estimate 4Q revenue/adj. net profit to grow 42%/44% YoY to RMB 103.9bn/7.0bn, 0.5%/9% above Bloomberg...

CMB International

Xiaomi Corp: China Smartphone Market—Steady Growth in 2024. Subsidy to Spur Demand in 2025

As Xiaomi's stock hits new highs, drawing investor attention to our recent insight that highlighted how it would be a prime beneficiary of...

Devi Subhakesan

Analysis of Xiaomi Corp's option strategies on HK Exchange shows bullish traders taking calculated bets despite high volatility, with call spreads...