Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (19 HK)</a> has <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2022/0811/2022081100273.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a "small" buyback at HK$4bn, but it is a material portion of ADV.  </li>
<li>What remains unknown is how the buyback will be split.  The split will only be known once buyback volumes are announced. </li>
<li>Swire is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.28x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. </li>
</ul>



Swire Pacific (19 HK) has announced a "small" buyback at HK$4bn, but it is a material portion of ADV.  
What remains unknown is how the buyback will be split.  The split will only be known once buyback volumes are announced. 
Swire is trading cheap at a look-through forward P/B of 0.28x compared to its five-year average of 0.38x, and the two-year average pre-Covid of 0.48x. 


Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

Research from Quam Securities, Quam Securities

Quam Securities Research

Research from Quam Securities

Quam Securities

Since its inception in 1986, Quam Securities Limited (Quam Securities) has grown to become one of the few mid-tier securities brokerages in Hong Kong with global execution capabilities for both private and institutional clients. It boasts a well-established network in Greater China including Taiwan and in major world markets through the Global Alliance Partners (GAP). Quam Securities is well-positioned not only to harness and drive business within the China Tonghai International Financial Limited but also between China and the world markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>According to Bloomberg, India is considering imposing restriction on low-end smartphone (ASP &lt; US$150) from China. Chinese brands dominate India and, among the top-5 players, Chinese brands combined had a market share of 65% in 6M22.</li><li>If we use 1Q22 data, which has more detailed breakdown for smaller players, Chinese brands captured 74% of the market in India.</li><li>The policy, if implemented, would hit Xiaomi (1810 HK, NR) as India was the second largest smartphone market for the company in both 2021 and 6M2022, when the company was also the market leader in India in both periods.</li></ul>

According to Bloomberg, India is considering imposing restriction on low-end smartphone (ASP &lt; US$150) from China. Chinese brands dominate India and, among the top-5 players, Chinese brands combined had a market share of 65% in 6M22.If we use 1Q22 data, which has more detailed breakdown for smaller players, Chinese brands captured 74% of the market in India.The policy, if implemented, would hit Xiaomi (1810 HK, NR) as India was the second largest smartphone market for the company in both 2021 and 6M2022, when the company was also the market leader in India in both periods.

Tactical Trade Ideas - India May Restrict Low-End Chinese Smartphones

Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The Hong Kong Indices have been much weaker than Taiwan &amp; China due to liquidity and open capital account.</li><li>It is a canary for global indices and should be analyzed accordingly.</li><li>There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.</li></ul>

The Hong Kong Indices have been much weaker than Taiwan &amp; China due to liquidity and open capital account.It is a canary for global indices and should be analyzed accordingly.There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>Smartphone: 2Q22 weakness despite strong performance in 618 festival.</li><li>AIoT/internet: weaker AIoT revenue and better internet margin.</li><li>New product launches in 2H22E to boost demand after recent destocking.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Smartphone: 2Q22 weakness despite strong performance in 618 festival.AIoT/internet: weaker AIoT revenue and better internet margin.New product launches in 2H22E to boost demand after recent destocking.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2Q22 Preview: A Slow Quarter but Mostly Priced In

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 22nd. </li>
<li>Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. </li>
<li>We highlight short interests changes in Wuxi Biologics, Techtronic, Tencent, XPeng.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Jul 22nd. 
Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
We highlight short interests changes in Wuxi Biologics, Techtronic, Tencent, XPeng.


HK Short Interest: Wuxi Biologics, Techtronic, Tencent, XPeng

China

Xiaomi Corporation manufactures communication equipment and parts. The Company produces and sells mobile phones, smart phone software,  set-top boxes, and related accessories. Xiaomi markets its products worldwide.

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Xiaomi (1810 HK)

Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

I continue to tilt bullish on Swire Pac. ~45% discount is unreasonably wide given its tendency to historically trade in the low-to-mid twenties....

David Blennerhassett

Tactical Trade Ideas - India May Restrict Low-End Chinese Smartphones

India’s Potential Restriction on Low-End Chinese Smartphones Could Hit 3-4% of Total Revenue. According to Bloomberg, India is considering imposing...

Quam Securities

Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2Q22 Preview: A Slow Quarter but Mostly Priced In

We estimate 2Q22E revenue/adj. net profit of RMB69.5bn/1.92bn (-21%/-70% YoY), due to smartphone demand slowdown, inventory destocking, inflation...

CMB International

HK Short Interest: Wuxi Biologics, Techtronic, Tencent, XPeng

We highlight weekly short interests changes in Wuxi Biologics, Techtronic, Tencent, XPeng based on the latest HK SFC Short Aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Swire A/​​B (19 HK /​​ 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme

I continue to tilt bullish on Swire Pac. ~45% discount is unreasonably wide given its tendency to historically trade in the low-to-mid twenties....

David Blennerhassett

Tactical Trade Ideas - India May Restrict Low-End Chinese Smartphones

India’s Potential Restriction on Low-End Chinese Smartphones Could Hit 3-4% of Total Revenue. According to Bloomberg, India is considering imposing...

Quam Securities

Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Xiaomi (1810 HK) – 2Q22 Preview: A Slow Quarter but Mostly Priced In

We estimate 2Q22E revenue/adj. net profit of RMB69.5bn/1.92bn (-21%/-70% YoY), due to smartphone demand slowdown, inventory destocking, inflation...

CMB International

HK Short Interest: Wuxi Biologics, Techtronic, Tencent, XPeng

We highlight weekly short interests changes in Wuxi Biologics, Techtronic, Tencent, XPeng based on the latest HK SFC Short Aggregate report.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Swire A/B (19 HK / 87 HK)'s BIG Buyback Programme