Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The outlook for factory automation is improving with inventory clearance, the upturn in the semiconductor industry and an AI-enhanced response to the labor shortage.</li>
<li>Yaskawa's margins should continue to rise with renewed growth in Robotics, efficiency gains and an upgraded product line. </li>
<li>Valuation stretched at 30x EPS guidance for FY Feb-25, but current weakness looks like a long term buying opportunity.</li>
</ul>


The outlook for factory automation is improving with inventory clearance, the upturn in the semiconductor industry and an AI-enhanced response to the labor shortage.
Yaskawa's margins should continue to rise with renewed growth in Robotics, efficiency gains and an upgraded product line. 
Valuation stretched at 30x EPS guidance for FY Feb-25, but current weakness looks like a long term buying opportunity.


Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Doosan Robotics  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/doosan-robotics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36816:1" rel="noopener">Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS)</a> is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. </li>
<li>Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module. </li>
<li>In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.</li>
</ul>



Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. 
Doosan Robotics (DR) manufactures and sells collaborative robots (Cobots). The firm’s product portfolio primarily includes different series of robot arms as well as its coffee module. 
In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and undertook a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.


Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>We are bearish on Fanuc. Yaskawa's robotics orders were strong but Fanuc is more correlated with machine tool orders</li>
<li>Machine Tool orders have already turned south and Fanuc is losing momentum in its order growth</li>
<li>If we are right on the cycle, we expect Fanuc to trade down to 2.3x book value, 20% downside risk from here</li>
</ul>


We are bearish on Fanuc. Yaskawa's robotics orders were strong but Fanuc is more correlated with machine tool orders
Machine Tool orders have already turned south and Fanuc is losing momentum in its order growth
If we are right on the cycle, we expect Fanuc to trade down to 2.3x book value, 20% downside risk from here


Fanuc (6954) - Forget Yaskawa...a Slowdown Is Coming

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

<p>On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. We said that FA and Robot sales were likely flattish QoQ (-0.8% QoQ and +6.1% QoQ respectively) but that the Robomachine division could see sales collapse to about ¥28bn from ¥53.2bn in the last quarter. They did, falling to ¥27.8bn. What remains to be seen is how far ahead of the clueless and oblivious sellside (which projected a 1.6% QoQ rise in sales) the market was. For now though…</p><p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/gbGfhT1yehw" width="640" height="360"></iframe></p>

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. We said that FA and Robot sales were likely flattish QoQ (-0.8% QoQ and +6.1% QoQ respectively) but that the Robomachine division could see sales collapse to about ¥28bn from ¥53.2bn in the last quarter. They did, falling to ¥27.8bn. What remains to be seen is how far ahead of the clueless and oblivious sellside (which projected a 1.6% QoQ rise in sales) the market was. For now though…

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Midea Group Co Ltd A / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chinese home appliance maker Midea has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to raise $3.46bn at an indicative price range of HK$52.0-54.8 per share.</li>
<li>The company has a diversified product portfolio, well-balanced exposure to domestic as well as overseas markets and a growing robotics business.</li>
<li>As we expected, the HK offering is priced at around 25% discount to it’s A-shares and our analysis suggests that Midea’s HK offering is priced attractively. </li>
</ul>


Chinese home appliance maker Midea has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to raise $3.46bn at an indicative price range of HK$52.0-54.8 per share.
The company has a diversified product portfolio, well-balanced exposure to domestic as well as overseas markets and a growing robotics business.
As we expected, the HK offering is priced at around 25% discount to it’s A-shares and our analysis suggests that Midea’s HK offering is priced attractively. 


Japan

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets servomotors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots.  The Company's products include spindle controllers, computerized numerical control (CNC) systems, and system engineering.

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Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)

Yaskawa (6506 JP): Start of a New Factory Automation Growth Cycle

Long-term buy with share price down 10% in the past month as orders bottom out. Robotics looking up with inventory cleared and need for automation...

Scott Foster

Doosan Robotics IPO - Thoughts on Valuation - A Punt at Best, a Crash at Worst

Doosan Robotics (DOOSANROBO KS) is looking to raise up to US$314m in its Korean IPO. comparison. In this note, we talk about valuation.

Ethan Aw

Fanuc (6954) - Forget Yaskawa...a Slowdown Is Coming

The market should ignore the positive read-across from Yaskawa results. Fanuc is more correlated with machine tool orders. We see signs of a...

Mark Chadwick

Fanuc – Whoomp! There It Is

On Friday we warned that Fanuc might come through with a surprise downgrade as a result of weakness in its Robomachine division. They did.

Mio Kato

Midea HK Listing: Valuation Insights

As per news media outlets, Midea's HK listing will be priced at the top of the indicative IPO price range and due to strong demand (books are...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

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