IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> ended its consideration of the NSSK offer due to concerns about whether NSSK could secure FEFTA approval, given its reliance on foreign investors for financing.</li>
<li>This event sets a precedent, as a Japanese PE-led bid is not a credible shield against FEFTA rejection. Japanese regulators are looking through to ultimate ownership/control.</li>
<li>Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break should be around 10%. </li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) ended its consideration of the NSSK offer due to concerns about whether NSSK could secure FEFTA approval, given its reliance on foreign investors for financing.
This event sets a precedent, as a Japanese PE-led bid is not a credible shield against FEFTA rejection. Japanese regulators are looking through to ultimate ownership/control.
Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break should be around 10%. 


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): FEFTA Approval Rears Its Head Again as NSSK’s Offer Is Declined

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We share weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage that had a good or bad week </li>
<li>Fast Retailing was the standout performer, trading up 11% this week</li>
<li>Wooden spoons for Money Forward and Yaskawa, both lower after reporting earnings</li>
</ul>


We share weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage that had a good or bad week 
Fast Retailing was the standout performer, trading up 11% this week
Wooden spoons for Money Forward and Yaskawa, both lower after reporting earnings


Japan Stock Commentary | Uniqlo, Yaskawa and Money Forward

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 17th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,293m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Yaskawa Electric, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Nintendo, Sumco.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jul 17th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD28,293m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Kioxia, SoftBank, Yaskawa Electric, Taiyo Yuden, Tokyo Electron, Mizuho Financial, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, Advantest, Nintendo, Sumco.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 17th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Yaskawa Electric, Taiyo Yuden, Advantest

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 9th APRIL •<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/934/original/2021-04-11_07-45-16.png?1618170004" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199934"></figure></section>RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon (8267 JP)</a> is still mired in net losses and is underperforming most of its listed subsidiaries. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)</a> saw its first quarterly year-on-year sales gain since Y19-Q1 and is forecasting (see below) a return to near-double-digit operating margins this year. For more, see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio's </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/yaskawa-is-sigma-x-going-to-drive-large-margin-gains" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50190" rel="noopener">Yaskawa – Is Sigma-X Going to Drive Large Margin Gains?</a>.  Amongst mid-cap construction machinery companies, the divergence between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takeuchi-mfg-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15344:1" rel="noopener">Takeuchi Mfg (6432 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giken-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8955:1" rel="noopener">Giken (6289 JP)</a> is notable.     <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/937/original/image_41476225521618176041754.png?1618176043" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199937"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/938/original/image_43430948031618176155426.png?1618176156" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199938"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/939/original/image_15842165641618176543024.png?1618176544" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199939"></figure>• LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 9th APRIL •<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/936/original/2021-04-11_07-45-32.png?1618170242" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199936"></figure></section>FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Just 65% of the annual revisions announced were positive, with Yasukawa the leading large-cap. In contrast to its results, Aeon is expecting to beat its listed grocery chain subsidiaries - all of whom are forecasting declines in profits.

• LARGE CAP RESULTS - 9th APRIL •RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP) is still mired in net losses and is underperforming most of its listed subsidiaries. Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP) saw its first quarterly year-on-year sales gain since Y19-Q1 and is forecasting (see below) a return to near-double-digit operating margins this year. For more, see Mio's Yaskawa – Is Sigma-X Going to Drive Large Margin Gains?.  Amongst mid-cap construction machinery companies, the divergence between Takeuchi Mfg (6432 JP) and Giken (6289 JP) is notable.     • LARGE CAP FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 9th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Just 65% of the annual revisions announced were positive, with Yasukawa the leading large-cap. In contrast to its results, Aeon is expecting to beat its listed grocery chain subsidiaries - all of whom are forecasting declines in profits. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. Additionally, the US dollar (DXY) is likely headed lower, something we view as a positive risk-on signal for global equities. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend adding exposure on pullbacks.

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Japan

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets servomotors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots.  The Company's products include spindle controllers, computerized numerical control (CNC) systems, and system engineering.

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Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP)

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): FEFTA Approval Rears Its Head Again as NSSK’s Offer Is Declined

Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break...

Arun George

Japan Stock Commentary | Uniqlo, Yaskawa and Money Forward

We share our weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage universe that have appreciated or dropped by a significant amount during the course of...

Mark Chadwick

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 17th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Yaskawa Electric, Taiyo Yuden, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Major global indexes continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

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Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): FEFTA Approval Rears Its Head Again as NSSK’s Offer Is Declined

Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded FY2029 targets since the undisturbed date, the share price fall on a deal break...

Arun George

Japan Stock Commentary | Uniqlo, Yaskawa and Money Forward

We share our weekly commentaries on stocks in our coverage universe that have appreciated or dropped by a significant amount during the course of...

Mark Chadwick

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jul 17th): Kioxia, SoftBank, Yaskawa Electric, Taiyo Yuden, Advantest

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Kioxia (285A JP), SoftBank (9984 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​​​​09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi

RESULTS - Again, less than half of the 60 results announcements from Friday scored positively. Of the largest-cap stocks reporting, Aeon (8267 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Breaking Out; EM Remains Leadership

Major global indexes continue to trend higher and are devoid of bearish inflections. As a result, we remain bullish and we continue to recommend...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/09 - Aeon, Giken & Takeuchi