HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.</li>
<li>The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/semiconductor-manufacturing-international-corp-smic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14231:1" rel="noopener">Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hua-hong-semiconductor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7201:1" rel="noopener">Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK)</a> are badly exposed.</li>
</ul>


Following Trump's threats on tariffs and pull-out of meeting with Xi, the 5% collapse in the HSI futures implies a heavy sell-off in HK when the market reopens.
The stocks with the best YTD performance and significant strengths in the last month are the prime candidates most vulnerable to the initial collapse. 

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), Alibaba (9988 HK), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (1347 HK) are badly exposed.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.</li>
<li>Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int’l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment.
Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI-US. Remain aggressively long/continue to expect more upside into year-end and the early2026.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 is breaking out from its 7-month base, above the crucial 5500 level, and RS is attempting to reverse its 5-month downtrend -- buy.


Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.</li>
<li>Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.</li>
<li>Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.</li>
</ul>


Grasberg shock: Force majeure after mudflow cuts ~3% global supply; 50–60kt/month at risk; copper jumped to $10,300/t, near 2024 highs.
Asian impact: Indonesia’s downstream push stalls; Chinese smelters squeezed by collapsing TCs; Japanese/Korean smelters face higher costs; miners and traders gain leverage.
Winners: +$1,000/t adds ~6–8% EBITDA for Zijin, ~5–7% for Jiangxi; Japanese majors 15–45% exposed; Mitsui/Marubeni gain 0.5–2% via mine stakes/trading.


Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

<ul>
<li>Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.</li>
<li>Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.</li>
<li>Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).</li>
</ul>


Supply-Constrained asset: Mine output is growing &lt;1% CAGR and recycling is flat, leaving gold’s supply side structurally inelastic.
Demand shifting institutional: Jewellery’s share is falling below 30% by 2030, while central banks and ETFs could account for ~70% of demand.
Macro-Driven pricing: Gold trades as a reserve asset, with real rates setting the ceiling — scenarios range from $2,800/oz (bear) to $7,500/oz (bull).


Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HK Strategy: Who Will Suffer the Most?

​Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Europe Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan, China, Korea, and the U.S.

Europe EURO $STOXX 50 Breaking Out From 7-Month Base -- Buy; Remain Overweight Taiwan $EWT, China $MCHI, Korea $EWY, and the U.S. $SPX; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

Copper Tightens: Grasberg Disruption Pushes Market Toward $11k–13k/T

​Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Gold 2030: Strategic Floor, Uncertain Ceiling

​Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.

Rahul Jain

Trump's tariff threats and market uncertainty lead to a potential heavy sell-off in HK, with top-performing stocks like SMIC, Kuaishou, Alibaba,...

Grasberg mudflow cuts global copper supply, prices soar, Asian downstream industry impacted, winners include Zijin and Jiangxi.

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Gold supply is limited, demand is shifting towards institutions, and macro factors will drive pricing between $2,800 and $7,500 per ounce.