Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 3Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the outflows in 3Q2026 were US$12,576 million and holdings were US$386 billion.
We highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING, ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT, CMB, WUXI APPTEC, PING AN INSURANCE, MIDEA.


Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Fed has embarked on a rate hike cycle and one more hike in December seems baked in. Treasury yields hovering at higher than 5% seem to portend more hikes.</li>
<li>Asian yields started rising and PE peaked a year ago. Foreign flows, also impacted by US yields, dropped massively in 2025-26. Valuations and flows are anticipating the bad news already.</li>
<li>Banks, insurance and basic materials should do well in an inflationary and tighter monetary environment. These sectors are also cheap in relation to their future earnings growth and ROE.</li>
</ul>


The Fed has embarked on a rate hike cycle and one more hike in December seems baked in. Treasury yields hovering at higher than 5% seem to portend more hikes.
Asian yields started rising and PE peaked a year ago. Foreign flows, also impacted by US yields, dropped massively in 2025-26. Valuations and flows are anticipating the bad news already.
Banks, insurance and basic materials should do well in an inflationary and tighter monetary environment. These sectors are also cheap in relation to their future earnings growth and ROE.


Asian Equities: As Fed Hikes Loom, Asia’s Derating Clears the Path for Selective Sectoral Rerating

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap global gold and silver mining companies. We expect 2-3 ADDs on average each quarter.</li>
<li>Based on the latest data, we now see six ADDs in June 2026 and a one-way flow of US$1.1bn.</li>
<li>The Regis-Vault merger could have consequences for the index in September 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap global gold and silver mining companies. We expect 2-3 ADDs on average each quarter.
Based on the latest data, we now see six ADDs in June 2026 and a one-way flow of US$1.1bn.
The Regis-Vault merger could have consequences for the index in September 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Jun26: Six ADDs Likely; Base Date Approaching

<ul>
<li>Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.</li>
<li>Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. </li>
<li>Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.</li>
</ul>


Analyzing last 18 year's year-on-year earnings growth patterns, we conclude that Asian earnings are highly cyclical, with average peak-to-trough length of 24-30 months, unless driven by a sharp liquidity spike.
Korean and Taiwanese earnings cycles are at their peaks and HK/China is close. Among the large markets, only India is at the bottom of its earnings growth cycle. 
Onshore China valuations could stay flat; Taiwan PE could correct more. HK and Korean PE should rise. Indian valuations could correct slightly, in line with previous earnings cycle bottoms.


Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

<ul>
<li>Recent spike in oil prices and US yields is not deterring foreigners from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn of Asian Equities in August, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in September.</li>
<li>In August FIIs bought Taiwan (US$11bn) and India (US$3.1bn) and sold Korea (-US$8.5bn). In September they have bought Taiwan (US$2bn) and Korea (US$1bn) and have sold India (-US$1.25bn).</li>
<li>We believe foreign buying shall bounce back in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan. FIIs would likely buy India too, but in smaller measure than North Asia. We are cautious about ASEAN.</li>
</ul>


Recent spike in oil prices and US yields is not deterring foreigners from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn of Asian Equities in August, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in September.
In August FIIs bought Taiwan (US$11bn) and India (US$3.1bn) and sold Korea (-US$8.5bn). In September they have bought Taiwan (US$2bn) and Korea (US$1bn) and have sold India (-US$1.25bn).
We believe foreign buying shall bounce back in tech-heavy Korea and Taiwan. FIIs would likely buy India too, but in smaller measure than North Asia. We are cautious about ASEAN.


Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold

China

Zijin Mining Group Company Limited operates metal mineral resources exploration and mining businesses. The Company produces gold, copper, zinc, iron, and other base metals. Zijin Mining Group also conducts metal trade and investment businesses domestically and internationally.

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Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)

Northbound Flows (3Q2026): CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 3Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, EOPTOLINK TECHNOLOGY, NAURA TECHNOLOGY, WEICHAI POWER, ZIJIN MINING,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: As Fed Hikes Loom, Asia’s Derating Clears the Path for Selective Sectoral Rerating

Skyrocketing US yields portend more hikes. Asian yields rose & PE peaked a year ago. Foreign outflows over 25-26 seem to anticipate the tightening....

Manishi Raychaudhuri

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Jun26: Six ADDs Likely; Base Date Approaching

The MV Global Gold Miners base date approaches. It is 8 days away. There is one high conviction ADD, and a medium. Lows are 40% likely in our model...

Travis Lundy

Asian Equities: Earnings Cycles Are at Different Stages in Different Asian Markets

Asian earnings growth is cyclical. KR & TW are at their cyclical peaks, HK/CN are close. Earnings growth cycle in India is at its trough. HK & KR...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Foreigners Are Buying Korea and Taiwan Again; India and Thailand Being Sold

Recent spike in oil prices & US yields is not deterring FIIs from buying Asian equities. After buying US$4.8bn in Aug, FIIs have bought US$1.8bn in...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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