Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>Tourist number in National Day holidays recovered to 80% of last year.</li>
<li>Food delivery orders increased significantly in scenic spots during National Day holidays.</li>
<li>Pinduoduo (PDD) is not in the list of e-commerce law drafters.</li>
<li>Chinese game developers earned 29% of global game revenue on App Store and Google Player.</li>
<li>iQiyi (IQ) denied a short-seller accusation.</li>
</ul>


Tourist number in National Day holidays recovered to 80% of last year.
Food delivery orders increased significantly in scenic spots during National Day holidays.
Pinduoduo (PDD) is not in the list of e-commerce law drafters.
Chinese game developers earned 29% of global game revenue on App Store and Google Player.
iQiyi (IQ) denied a short-seller accusation.


China Internet Weekly (12Oct2020): Tourist Number Recovered to 80% of Last National Day Holidays

<ul>
<li>Baidu (BIDU)’s manager was arrested for gambling advertisements.</li>
<li>iQiyi (IQ) was banned in Taiwan.</li>
<li>Trip.com (TCOM)’s revenue continued to decrease QoQ in 2Q20.</li>
<li>China Literature (772 HK) raised novel writers’ revenue share from 50% to 70%.</li>
</ul>


Baidu (BIDU)’s manager was arrested for gambling advertisements.
iQiyi (IQ) was banned in Taiwan.
Trip.com (TCOM)’s revenue continued to decrease QoQ in 2Q20.
China Literature (772 HK) raised novel writers’ revenue share from 50% to 70%.


China Internet Weekly (28Sep2020): BIDU Manager Arrested, TCOM Revenue Shrank QoQ

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>, and the rest of the Chinese Online Search industry, has consistently been losing market share to the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan Dianping (3690 HK)</a> over the past two years. Although I still believe there is significant long term growth left for the Chinese digital advertising market, it can easily be argued that this growth will be heavily skewed and that the “pure” Search market is in effect an “industry in decline”. 
In his book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analysing Industries and Competitors”, Michael Porter expands on four key strategies which firms could successfully follow when they find themselves in a declining industry. In this insight, I analyse Baidu’s current strategy against these offered strategies to assess if there is indeed value left in the company (or at least the core search business). 
Baidu should be able to continue to produce significant cash flow from its core search business as long as it sticks to the “leadership” strategy – given their dominant share of search queries, the low penetration they have in the SME market, the suitability to Search advertising for certain industry verticals and their superior profitability. I estimate Baidu’s fair value at US$168/ADS based on a SOTP valuation. The values used in my SOTP for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> (market value), Net Cash and Other investments (book value) would imply that Baidu’s core operations are currently valued at only $10.4bn ex-cash, which equates to only 9.1x 2021F PE (only 3.9x PE ex-cash).

Baidu (BIDU US), and the rest of the Chinese Online Search industry, has consistently been losing market share to the likes of Alibaba Group (9988 HK), ByteDance (1460967D CH), Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) over the past two years. Although I still believe there is significant long term growth left for the Chinese digital advertising market, it can easily be argued that this growth will be heavily skewed and that the “pure” Search market is in effect an “industry in decline”. 
In his book “Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Analysing Industries and Competitors”, Michael Porter expands on four key strategies which firms could successfully follow when they find themselves in a declining industry. In this insight, I analyse Baidu’s current strategy against these offered strategies to assess if there is indeed value left in the company (or at least the core search business). 
Baidu should be able to continue to produce significant cash flow from its core search business as long as it sticks to the “leadership” strategy – given their dominant share of search queries, the low penetration they have in the SME market, the suitability to Search advertising for certain industry verticals and their superior profitability. I estimate Baidu’s fair value at US$168/ADS based on a SOTP valuation. The values used in my SOTP for iQIYI Inc (IQ US), Trip.com (TCOM US) (market value), Net Cash and Other investments (book value) would imply that Baidu’s core operations are currently valued at only $10.4bn ex-cash, which equates to only 9.1x 2021F PE (only 3.9x PE ex-cash).

Baidu: Strategies for Operating in an Industry in Decline

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK)</a> ticketing service revenues' growth will be capped due to the COVID-19 safety precaution for longer than this year given there is not yet a vaccine let alone curing the world out of COVID-19.
Thanks to its standing as part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> , the management has decided to co-invest in Reality Shows productions alongside Youku that will shift its distribution channel from cinemas to home (Television) and personal (smartphone and tablet) entertainment. 
Alibaba Pictures is trading at 1.27x PBR, a 90% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> , even before it books future revenues from the Reality Shows. Buy.

Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) ticketing service revenues' growth will be capped due to the COVID-19 safety precaution for longer than this year given there is not yet a vaccine let alone curing the world out of COVID-19.
Thanks to its standing as part of the Alibaba Group (9988 HK) , the management has decided to co-invest in Reality Shows productions alongside Youku that will shift its distribution channel from cinemas to home (Television) and personal (smartphone and tablet) entertainment. 
Alibaba Pictures is trading at 1.27x PBR, a 90% discount to iQIYI Inc (IQ US) , even before it books future revenues from the Reality Shows. Buy. 

Alibaba Pictures (1060): Big Screen to Small Screen

<ul class="">
<li>Alibaba (BABA)’s Taobao inflated audience for live broadcast.</li>
<li>SEC is investigating iQiyi for revenue inflation.</li>
<li>The merger of DouYu (DOYU) and Huya (HUYA) will come true as we had expected in April.</li>
<li>Baidu (BIDU), China Literature (772), and Sohu (SOHU) released 2Q20 results.</li>
</ul>


Alibaba (BABA)’s Taobao inflated audience for live broadcast.
SEC is investigating iQiyi for revenue inflation.
The merger of DouYu (DOYU) and Huya (HUYA) will come true as we had expected in April.
Baidu (BIDU), China Literature (772), and Sohu (SOHU) released 2Q20 results.


China Internet Weekly (17Aug2020): Top Broadcaster Said Taobao Lied, Probe and Rumor on IQ

China

iQIYI, Inc. offers video entertainment services. The Company provides movies, television dramas, variety shows, and other video contents. iQIYI offers services worldwide.

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iQIYI Inc (IQ US)

China Internet Weekly (12Oct2020): Tourist Number Recovered to 80% of Last National Day Holidays

China's National Day tourists reflect how much the economy recovered. The holidays were from October 1 to 8. We believe people were willing to...

Ming Lu

China Internet Weekly (28Sep2020): BIDU Manager Arrested, TCOM Revenue Shrank QoQ

Baidu (BIDU)’s manager was arrested for gambling advertisements. iQiyi (IQ) was banned in Taiwan. Trip.com (TCOM)’s revenue continued to decrease...

Ming Lu

Baidu: Strategies for Operating in an Industry in Decline

Baidu, and the rest of the Chinese Online Search industry, has consistently been losing market share to the likes of Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Alibaba Pictures (1060): Big Screen to Small Screen

Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) ticketing

Henry Soediarko

China Internet Weekly (17Aug2020): Top Broadcaster Said Taobao Lied, Probe and Rumor on IQ

Alibaba (BABA)’s Taobao inflated audience for live broadcast. SEC is investigating iQiyi for revenue inflation. The merger of DouYu (DOYU) and...

Ming Lu

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