Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bilibili (BILI) reported C2Q24 revenue, GAAP operating profit, and GAAP net income in-line, 7.9%, 9.9% vs. our estimates and in-line, 12%, 18% vs. consensus. </li>
<li>BILI’s unique, urban user base and video format give it strong competitive advantage. Further, revenue from &lt;Three Kingdom&gt; game will be significant.</li>
<li>We raise our TP to US$20 and reiterate BUY .  </li>
</ul>


Bilibili (BILI) reported C2Q24 revenue, GAAP operating profit, and GAAP net income in-line, 7.9%, 9.9% vs. our estimates and in-line, 12%, 18% vs. consensus. 
BILI’s unique, urban user base and video format give it strong competitive advantage. Further, revenue from &lt;Three Kingdom&gt; game will be significant.
We raise our TP to US$20 and reiterate BUY .  


[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$20) TP Change]: User Demographics&AI Drive China’s Video Instagram

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 72% YoY to RMB271mn, better than our/consensus estimate of RMB329/317mn, primarily due to the better-than-expected GPM expansion (+6.8ppt YoY).</li><li>For 3Q24E, we expect total revenue will increase by 22% YoY, and Bili will achieve breakeven and register non-GAAP operating income of RMB184mn, mainly supported by the robust performance of high-margin mobile games and advertising businesses.</li><li>We cut our FY24 adjusted net loss estimate to RMB255mn (previous: RMB710mn) mainly to factor in the better-thanexpected earnings contribution from games and ads business.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 72% YoY to RMB271mn, better than our/consensus estimate of RMB329/317mn, primarily due to the better-than-expected GPM expansion (+6.8ppt YoY).For 3Q24E, we expect total revenue will increase by 22% YoY, and Bili will achieve breakeven and register non-GAAP operating income of RMB184mn, mainly supported by the robust performance of high-margin mobile games and advertising businesses.We cut our FY24 adjusted net loss estimate to RMB255mn (previous: RMB710mn) mainly to factor in the better-thanexpected earnings contribution from games and ads business.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong games and ads businesses to pave way for breakeven in 3Q24E

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Stan Zhao

Analyst - Media&Entertainment Sector

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tencent's &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; has seen significant grossing growth following gameplay features' expansion and global servers' launch.</li>
<li>Additionally, &lt;Teamfight Tactics Mobile&gt; saw a surge in grossing rankings after its anniversary event and has since maintained a stable position.</li>
<li>&lt;Justice Mobile&gt; has stabilized following its anniversary update, while &lt;Naraka Mobile&gt; experienced a noticeable drop in revenue rankings. Future updates will be monitored to assess the game's performance moving forward.</li>
</ul>


Tencent's &lt;Honor of Kings&gt; has seen significant grossing growth following gameplay features' expansion and global servers' launch.
Additionally, &lt;Teamfight Tactics Mobile&gt; saw a surge in grossing rankings after its anniversary event and has since maintained a stable position.
&lt;Justice Mobile&gt; has stabilized following its anniversary update, while &lt;Naraka Mobile&gt; experienced a noticeable drop in revenue rankings. Future updates will be monitored to assess the game's performance moving forward.


Online Game Monitor: August 13 - September 8, 2024

<ul><li>BiliBili reported 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB5.67bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 56% YoY to RMB456mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB518/498mn, mainly due to better-than-expected GPM expansion.</li><li>Bili’s share price correction after result was mainly due to investors’ profit taking after the strong rally since Feb, in our view.</li><li>The company’s target to achieve non-GAAP operating breakeven in 3Q24E remains intact, underpinned by solid GPM expansion and efficiency improvement. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BiliBili reported 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB5.67bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 56% YoY to RMB456mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB518/498mn, mainly due to better-than-expected GPM expansion.Bili’s share price correction after result was mainly due to investors’ profit taking after the strong rally since Feb, in our view.The company’s target to achieve non-GAAP operating breakeven in 3Q24E remains intact, underpinned by solid GPM expansion and efficiency improvement. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Revitalizing Business Model; Intact Breakeven Target

<ul><li>Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.</li><li>For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.</li><li>Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by 58% YoY to RMB556mn, beating our/consensus estimate of RMB677/633mn, mainly attributable to the better-than-expected control in non-GAAP opex.For FY23, total revenue was up 3% YoY to RMB22.5bn, with adjusted net loss narrowing by 49% YoY to RMB3.4bn.Looking into 2024, the focus for Bili remains as enhancing monetization and improving content ecosystem. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

China

Bilibili Inc. provides online entertainment services. The Company offers a platform that covers a wide array of genres and media formats, including videos, live broadcasting, mobile games, animation, and comics. Bilibili serves customers in China.

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Bilibili (BILI US)

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$20) TP Change]: User Demographics&AI Drive China’s Video Instagram

Bilibili's strong performance in Q2 and unique user base position it for continued success, with revenue from game expected to drive growth....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong games and ads businesses to pave way for breakeven in 3Q24E

BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

Online Game Monitor: August 13 - September 8, 2024

Tencent's mobile games, like <hok> have seen growth in grossing rankings while NetEase's <naraka mobile> is facing a decline.</naraka></hok>

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Revitalizing Business Model; Intact Breakeven Target

BiliBili reported 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB5.67bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by...

CMB International

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Bilibili (BILI US, BUY, TP US$20) TP Change]: User Demographics&AI Drive China’s Video Instagram

​Bilibili's strong performance in Q2 and unique user base position it for continued success, with revenue from game expected to drive growth....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Strong games and ads businesses to pave way for breakeven in 3Q24E

BiliBili announced 2Q24 financial results: total revenue grew by 16% YoY to RMB6.13bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

Online Game Monitor: August 13 - September 8, 2024

​Tencent's mobile games, like <hok> have seen growth in grossing rankings while NetEase's <naraka mobile> is facing a decline.</naraka></hok>

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Bilibili (BILI US) - Revitalizing Business Model; Intact Breakeven Target

BiliBili reported 1Q24 results: total revenue increased by 12% YoY to RMB5.67bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss narrowed by...

CMB International

Bilibili (BILI US) - Steady Progress Towards a Sustainable Business Model

Bilibili announced its 4Q23 results on 7 Mar: total revenue grew by 3% YoY to RMB6.35bn, in line with our/consensus estimate; adjusted net loss...

CMB International

Bilibili's strong performance in Q2 and unique user base position it for continued success, with revenue from game expected to drive growth....

Tencent's mobile games, like <hok> have seen growth in grossing rankings while NetEase's <naraka mobile> is facing a decline.</naraka></hok>