HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, which presents opportunities in 2026.</li>
<li>Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.</li>
<li>3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. </li>
</ul>


After a tragic 61.4pp underperformance against the HSI in 2025, the market is almost unanimously bearish on Meituan (3690 HK), which presents opportunities in 2026.
Negative news did not push it further down; P/B is at over 1SD below average, and net cash-to-share price is 5.6pp above the historical average.
3Q25 margins are so depressed that sustaining the price war is difficult. As the 7th-heaviest HSI constituent, it is the one to move the Index next year. 


2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Meituan (MT)’s revenue growth rate plummeted to 2% YoY in 3Q25.</li>
<li>The discount campaign has not actually ended after the authorities warned twice.</li>
<li>We expect that MT’s price has a downside of 30% in the next twelve months.</li>
</ul>


Meituan (MT)’s revenue growth rate plummeted to 2% YoY in 3Q25.
The discount campaign has not actually ended after the authorities warned twice.
We expect that MT’s price has a downside of 30% in the next twelve months.


Meituan (3690 HK): 3Q25, Discount Campaign Not Ended After Authorities Warned Twice

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.</li>
<li>
Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.</li>
<li>
Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.</li>
</ul>



Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.

Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.

Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.


HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>HK$82bn+/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$90+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down. Net rebounded to +HK$16bn.</li>
<li>Relatively high div low vol SOEs were net sold. Again. This is getting heavy. It matters because some have less international buying support (they are Trump military names).</li>
<li>The data tables below update daily in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Southbound Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Pairs Monitor</a> are both there - free - for all SK readers.</li>
</ul>


HK$82bn+/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$90+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down. Net rebounded to +HK$16bn.
Relatively high div low vol SOEs were net sold. Again. This is getting heavy. It matters because some have less international buying support (they are Trump military names).
The data tables below update daily in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there - free - for all SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 19 Dec 2025) - Lower Activity, Net Buying, but High-Div SOEs Sold

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

SBI Shinsei Bank / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, HK IPOs continue to be launched into the year end.</li>
<li>On the placements front, there are a number of lockup expiries coming up over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, HK IPOs continue to be launched into the year end.
On the placements front, there are a number of lockup expiries coming up over the next few weeks.


ECM Weekly (22 December 2025) - SBI Shinsei, ICICI AMC, Insilico, Forest Cabin Sanhua, IFBH, CaoCao

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

2026 High Conviction: Meituan (3690 HK) - Contrarian Perspectives

The market's unanimous bearish stance on Meituan creates opportunities in 2026, given its low P/B and high net cash-to-share price. Margins are so...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Meituan (3690 HK): 3Q25, Discount Campaign Not Ended After Authorities Warned Twice

Meituan (MT)’s revenue growth rate plummeted to 2% YoY in 3Q25. The discount campaign has not actually ended after the authorities warned twice. We...

Ming Lu

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

Volatility cones for 8 popular HK stocks help traders and investors spot opportunities. The IV term structure is increasingly shaped by the...

Gaudenz Schneider

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 19 Dec 2025) - Lower Activity, Net Buying, but High-Div SOEs Sold

SOUTHBOUND flows are still low in a year-end-lull but net flows are back to positive. High-div SOEs are seeing outflow. TECH and CONSUMER seeing...

Travis Lundy

ECM Weekly (22 December 2025) - SBI Shinsei, ICICI AMC, Insilico, Forest Cabin Sanhua, IFBH, CaoCao

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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