Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

China Unicom Hong Kong / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the recent share price gain, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a> is inexpensive with respect to parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-united-network-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12620:1" rel="noopener">China United Network (600050 CH)</a> - its pseudo domestic A-share twin - and to peers.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on Unicom, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. </li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>


Despite the recent share price gain, China Unicom (762 HK) is inexpensive with respect to parent China United Network (600050 CH) - its pseudo domestic A-share twin - and to peers.
Preceding my comments on Unicom, are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos. 
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Travis Lundy

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>China Mobile (941 HK) announced an H-share buyback program which had as its upper limit the purchase of 37% of the H-share CCASS position. </li>
<li>After that, the SOE parent announced a plan to buy RMB shares in Shanghai. </li>
<li>The virtuous cycle of shareholder return starts today. Today is the first day China Mobile can start buying its H-shares. </li>
</ul>


China Mobile (941 HK) announced an H-share buyback program which had as its upper limit the purchase of 37% of the H-share CCASS position. 
After that, the SOE parent announced a plan to buy RMB shares in Shanghai. 
The virtuous cycle of shareholder return starts today. Today is the first day China Mobile can start buying its H-shares. 


China Mobile (941 HK) Buyback Period Starts

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35371:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (600941 CH)</a> A-Share IPO at RMB 57.58/share starts trading tomorrow on 5 January. I thought this premium disappointing, and the dividend overly attractive.</li>
<li>At 800x over-subscribed, with substantial clawback, IPO allocations to mainland investors were limited. Cash should be back in investors' hands and the yield is very attractive on A-shares and H-shares.</li>
<li>Today, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> announced it would start executing on its buyback mandate (10% of H-shares out (2.047bn shares). This is potentially enormous. And absolutely praise-worthy.</li>
</ul>


The China Mobile (600941 CH) A-Share IPO at RMB 57.58/share starts trading tomorrow on 5 January. I thought this premium disappointing, and the dividend overly attractive.
At 800x over-subscribed, with substantial clawback, IPO allocations to mainland investors were limited. Cash should be back in investors' hands and the yield is very attractive on A-shares and H-shares.
Today, China Mobile (941 HK) announced it would start executing on its buyback mandate (10% of H-shares out (2.047bn shares). This is potentially enormous. And absolutely praise-worthy.


China Mobile (941 HK) - Massive Buyback Announced on Eve of A-Share IPO

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> has priced its A-share IPO at RMB 57.58/share which is slightly disappointing in terms of premium to the H-share. </li>
<li>Subscriptions start on 22 December, and the IPO should launch a week later, for the largest mainland offering this year and possibly the largest in a decade.</li>
<li>Given the more explicit SHAREHOLDER RETURN PLAN framework published in May this year with the A-Share Circular, expect more management clarity on dividend payout.</li>
</ul>



China Mobile (941 HK) has priced its A-share IPO at RMB 57.58/share which is slightly disappointing in terms of premium to the H-share. 
Subscriptions start on 22 December, and the IPO should launch a week later, for the largest mainland offering this year and possibly the largest in a decade.
Given the more explicit SHAREHOLDER RETURN PLAN framework published in May this year with the A-Share Circular, expect more management clarity on dividend payout.


China Mobile Prices RMB A-Share IPO - Disappointing IPO Price So A-Share Could Yield ~CGBs+230

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.</li>
<li>
Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.</li>
<li>Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, </li>
<li>
As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.</li>
</ul>



Our Q3-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market-cap-weighted average price return of 2% and a simple average decline of 0.2%.

Out of the 34 stocks that appeared in our Q3-2021 screen, 15 stocks saw an average share price decline of 11.5%, whilst 19 stocks appreciated on average by 14%. The two biggest declining stock  were down 25% and 19% respectively.
Our Q4 2021 screen, with 38 names (up from 34 seen in Q3 and Q2 2021) delivers an interesting composition this quarter, 

As in the previous few quarters, we anticipate the possibility of a risk of deteriorating credit metrics during the next few quarters: Q4 2021’s Altman Z score rests at 1.23, which is just up on Q3 2021’s level of 1.19.


Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

China

China Tower Corporation Limited operates as a telecommunication company. The Company provides telecommunication towers construction, towers maintenance, ancillary facilities management, and other services. China Tower provides its services throughout China.

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China Tower (788 HK)

StubWorld: Unicom's "Hs" Are Cheap

Unicom is inexpensive versus domestic and international peers, and compared to historical levels. The company is net cash with a solid yield....

David Blennerhassett

China Mobile (941 HK) Buyback Period Starts

China Mobile has rallied nearly 20% since late December when it announced it would restart its H-share buyback program. How much they will buy is...

Travis Lundy

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

StubWorld: Unicom's "Hs" Are Cheap

Unicom is inexpensive versus domestic and international peers, and compared to historical levels. The company is net cash with a solid yield....

David Blennerhassett

China Mobile (941 HK) Buyback Period Starts

China Mobile has rallied nearly 20% since late December when it announced it would restart its H-share buyback program. How much they will buy is...

Travis Lundy

China Mobile (941 HK) - Massive Buyback Announced on Eve of A-Share IPO

China Mobile has finally answered the call of investors who have complained about its large net cash position. It will start buying back H-shares -...

Travis Lundy

China Mobile Prices RMB A-Share IPO - Disappointing IPO Price So A-Share Could Yield ~CGBs+230

China Mobile (941) has priced its A-Share IPO at a disappointingly low price, possibly to spur follow-on interest which the China Telecom A-Share...

Travis Lundy

Screening the Silk Road: Q4 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

As we move through into Q1 2022, we expect to see volatility around highly priced & leveraged names. This screen is a key starting point towards...

David Lepper