Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Auto &amp; Industrial Semi long boom / bust cycle started during Covid (peak demand) and is ending soon. Revenues declined by -20%. Operating Profits are depressed, down -50% from peak.   </li>
<li>Industry structure, high fragmentation, low transparency led to a protracted and steep bottom. But inventories remain high. The recovery will take time, probably no YoY revenue growth till 2026.   </li>
<li>Two big restructuring are underway, the sector is rationalizing. Lofty expectations of “structural growth” (EV, ADAS, green energy growth) hit the wall of a disappointing reality amplified by trade wars.</li>
</ul>


Auto &amp; Industrial Semi long boom / bust cycle started during Covid (peak demand) and is ending soon. Revenues declined by -20%. Operating Profits are depressed, down -50% from peak.   
Industry structure, high fragmentation, low transparency led to a protracted and steep bottom. But inventories remain high. The recovery will take time, probably no YoY revenue growth till 2026.   
Two big restructuring are underway, the sector is rationalizing. Lofty expectations of “structural growth” (EV, ADAS, green energy growth) hit the wall of a disappointing reality amplified by trade wars.


Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quantinuum-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49399:1" rel="noopener">Quantinuum (QNT US)</a> will be added to the BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index after the close on 18 September.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 9.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1bn. There are a few stocks with decent ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There are inflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honeywell-aerospace-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50307:1" rel="noopener">Honeywell Aerospace</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honeywell-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16765:1" rel="noopener">Honeywell International</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/on-semiconductor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2729:1" rel="noopener">On Semiconductor</a> and outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arqit-quantum-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35381:1" rel="noopener">Arqit Quantum</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/horizon-quantum-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36891:1" rel="noopener">Horizon Quantum Holdings</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/global-unichip-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10305:1" rel="noopener">Global Unichip</a>.</li>
</ul>



Quantinuum (QNT US) will be added to the BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index after the close on 18 September.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1bn. There are a few stocks with decent ADV to trade.
There are inflows for Honeywell Aerospace, Honeywell International and On Semiconductor and outflows for Arqit Quantum, Horizon Quantum Holdings and Global Unichip.


BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index: 1 Add & US$1bn Trade

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul><li>Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.</li><li>What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.</li><li>Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.</li></ul>

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change.What changed was that we are seeing a very large leveraged unwind in the market, driven by the BOJ's hike in interest rates.Let me write out the series of events. First and foremost, last week, we saw some of the first macro jitters. The CPI came to light, which was viewed as positive. But then NFP showed a bit of weakness.

<ul><li>Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.</li><li>Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.</li><li>This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. </li></ul>

Markets always act erratically, but I thought I would highlight one aspect that disproportionately impacts semiconductors.Factor investing is not new, but we are in a unique period where Momentum has quite a period of outperformance and short-term outperformance.This matters because semiconductors are (as far as my memory holds) the most significant weight in Momentum I’ve ever witnessed. 

<ul><li>The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.</li><li>Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.</li><li>Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.</li></ul>

The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the semiconductor market.Significant capacity additions were brought on after the historic shortages due to COVID-19, and then demand wobbled as interest rates quickly rose.Supply outpaced demand, and the market turned into a period of oversupply.

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

United States

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

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On Semiconductor (ON US)

Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....

Nicolas Baratte

BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index: 1 Add & US$1bn Trade

There is 1 add for BQTUM in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1bn. There are a few stocks with multiple...

Brian Freitas

MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change. What changed was that we are seeing a very large...

Fabricated Knowledge

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Auto & Industrial Semi Part1: Background of the Ongoing Crash, Revising Down Lofty Expectations

​Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....

Nicolas Baratte

BlueStar Machine Learning and Quantum Computing Index: 1 Add & US$1bn Trade

There is 1 add for BQTUM in Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 9.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1bn. There are a few stocks with multiple...

Brian Freitas

MARKETS AND SEMICONDUCTORS

Hello! I went on a short hike this weekend, which always seems to cause something to change. What changed was that we are seeing a very large...

Fabricated Knowledge

Factors and Semiconductors

A friendly warning. Momentum is outperforming all factors this year, and Semiconductors are a large part of that. Markets always act erratically,...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Outlook 2024: AI's Adolescence

Its time to jog your memory. We've gone through the downturn, what does an upturn look like? The year 2023 began with a significant downturn in the...

Fabricated Knowledge

Auto & Industrial Semi close to end of long boom/bust cycle, with revenues down -20%. Recovery expected to be slow with no YoY growth till 2026....