Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.</li>
<li>Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.</li>
<li>We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months</li>
</ul>


Both TSMC and UMC saw about 20% cut in automotive industry wafer sales in 3Q23, which was 20% worse than customers' guidance.
Reasons for discrepancies: 1. IDMs cut foundry orders but keep in house utilization higher; 2. Worse than expected US auto factories strike; 3. Rate hike results in worse car sales.
We suggest clients to be cautious on the investment of automotive supply chain for the next 3-6 months


Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Dimitris Ioannidis

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/walmart-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11134:1" rel="noopener">Walmart (WMT US)</a> is now eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing change from NYSE to Nasdaq on 9 December 2025, marking the largest exchange transfer in history.</li>
<li>The listing transfer was completed after the December 2025 annual review cut-off, so Nasdaq100 inclusion is anticipated by December 2026.</li>
<li>Forecasted passive fund demand upon inclusion is ~600m shares, $70bn and 25 ADV.</li>
</ul>



Walmart (WMT US) is now eligible for Nasdaq100 following its listing change from NYSE to Nasdaq on 9 December 2025, marking the largest exchange transfer in history.
The listing transfer was completed after the December 2025 annual review cut-off, so Nasdaq100 inclusion is anticipated by December 2026.
Forecasted passive fund demand upon inclusion is ~600m shares, $70bn and 25 ADV.


Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/monolithic-power-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2088:1" rel="noopener">Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seagate-technology-holdings-pl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9129:1" rel="noopener">Seagate Technology Holdings (STX US)</a> are the top 3 addition candidates with ALNY at the top.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/globalfoundries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34513:1" rel="noopener">GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cdw-corp-de" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2244:1" rel="noopener">CDW Corp (CDW US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/biogen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:972:1" rel="noopener">Biogen (BIIB US)</a> are the top 3 deletion candidates with GFS at the bottom.</li>
<li>Versant (VSNT) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) are estimated to be deleted following completion of their spinoffs with the earliest one expected on 30 October 2025.</li>
</ul>



Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR US) and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX US) are the top 3 addition candidates with ALNY at the top.

GLOBALFOUNDRIES (GFS US), CDW Corp (CDW US) and Biogen (BIIB US) are the top 3 deletion candidates with GFS at the bottom.
Versant (VSNT) and Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS) are estimated to be deleted following completion of their spinoffs with the earliest one expected on 30 October 2025.


Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 2): ALNY at the Top; GFS at the Bottom; Spinoffs Pending

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenues are hitting the bottom in 1Q25, most firms mention sequential growth in 2Q, sometimes YoY growth. Trends depend on specific firms, mentions of both Auto and Industrial recovering.</li>
<li>Gross / operating profit recovery could take a bit longer as inventory and price concessions could negate revenue growth for a couple of quarters.</li>
<li>2 categories of stocks: the cheap ones (NXP, Onsemi, Renesas, STMicro) and the expensive stocks (Analog Devices, Infineon, Microchip, Texas Instruments). I’d go with Renesas and Texas Instruments.</li>
</ul>


Revenues are hitting the bottom in 1Q25, most firms mention sequential growth in 2Q, sometimes YoY growth. Trends depend on specific firms, mentions of both Auto and Industrial recovering.
Gross / operating profit recovery could take a bit longer as inventory and price concessions could negate revenue growth for a couple of quarters.
2 categories of stocks: the cheap ones (NXP, Onsemi, Renesas, STMicro) and the expensive stocks (Analog Devices, Infineon, Microchip, Texas Instruments). I’d go with Renesas and Texas Instruments.


Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongodb-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26655:1" rel="noopener">MongoDB (MDB US)</a> is forecasted to be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to an index weighting of lower than 0.1% on the last day of March and April.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shopify-inc-de74469e-4678-489b-9b50-a80a5790c5ef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25906:1" rel="noopener">Shopify (SHOP US)</a> is the forecasted replacement. The company became eligible following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alnylam-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2191:1" rel="noopener">Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ebay-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1291:1" rel="noopener">eBay Inc (EBAY US)</a> are the main addition candidates for the acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ansys-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15473:1" rel="noopener">Ansys Inc (ANSS US)</a> by mid-2025 and the December 2025 review.</li>
</ul>



MongoDB (MDB US) is forecasted to be deleted from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to an index weighting of lower than 0.1% on the last day of March and April.

Shopify (SHOP US) is the forecasted replacement. The company became eligible following its listing transfer from NYSE to Nasdaq on 31 March.

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY US) and eBay Inc (EBAY US) are the main addition candidates for the acquisition of Ansys Inc (ANSS US) by mid-2025 and the December 2025 review.


MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

United States

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

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On Semiconductor (ON US)

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer

AstraZeneca (AZN) will delist its ADRs from Nasdaq and transition to a direct listing of its ordinary shares on the NYSE on 2 February. As a...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 2): ALNY at the Top; GFS at the Bottom; Spinoffs Pending

SOLS was deleted from the index at the close of 6 Nov following Honeywell’s spinoff. VSNT is still expected to be removed but Comcast’s spinoff has...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

1Q25 revenues hitting bottom, firms see QoQ growth in 2Q. Auto and Industrial show signs of improvement. Profit recovery may lag (inventory, price...

Nicolas Baratte

MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

MDB is set to be removed from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to its low index weighting, with SHOP expected to replace it. ALNY and EBAY are potential...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Top Foundries See Cut in Automotive Industry Wafer Sales, Implications

Top foundries see worse than expected automotive wafer sales, implying more automotive supply chain members are going to miss earnings expectation...

Andrew Lu

Walmart (WMT US): Unwrapping Nasdaq100 Inclusion Following Listing Transfer

AstraZeneca (AZN) will delist its ADRs from Nasdaq and transition to a direct listing of its ordinary shares on the NYSE on 2 February. As a...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Nasdaq100 Dec2025 Forecast (Part 2): ALNY at the Top; GFS at the Bottom; Spinoffs Pending

SOLS was deleted from the index at the close of 6 Nov following Honeywell’s spinoff. VSNT is still expected to be removed but Comcast’s spinoff has...

Dimitris Ioannidis

Automotive & Industrial Semiconductors Part 2: Is It the Bottom, Finally? Time to Buy?

​1Q25 revenues hitting bottom, firms see QoQ growth in 2Q. Auto and Industrial show signs of improvement. Profit recovery may lag (inventory, price...

Nicolas Baratte

MongoDB (MDB US): Fast-Exit from Nasdaq100 in May 2025

MDB is set to be removed from Nasdaq100 on 16 May due to its low index weighting, with SHOP expected to replace it. ALNY and EBAY are potential...

Dimitris Ioannidis

1Q25 revenues hitting bottom, firms see QoQ growth in 2Q. Auto and Industrial show signs of improvement. Profit recovery may lag (inventory, price...