Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.</li>
<li>A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.</li>
<li>There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.


CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The growth of Chinese outbound activity slowed somewhat in April, to around +18-19% Y/Y</li>
<li>But domestic air activity rebounded to +8% Y/Y, the fastest monthly growth in six months</li>
<li>With strong pricing power, we still prefer China's airlines over travel platform Trip.com </li>
</ul>


The growth of Chinese outbound activity slowed somewhat in April, to around +18-19% Y/Y
But domestic air activity rebounded to +8% Y/Y, the fastest monthly growth in six months
With strong pricing power, we still prefer China's airlines over travel platform Trip.com 


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Domestic Activity Firmed in April | Airlines > TCOM (May 2025)

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are some fairly large capping changes for some stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$5.4bn (US$694m). The impact on the deletes will be a lot larger than the impact on the adds.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the near-term, though the trade has been quite volatile over the medium term.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are some fairly large capping changes for some stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is HK$5.4bn (US$694m). The impact on the deletes will be a lot larger than the impact on the adds.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the near-term, though the trade has been quite volatile over the medium term.


CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & US$700m Trade

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 1Q25 results: total revenue was RMB4.4bn, up 13% YoY, and was 0.7/0.9% better than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus estimates, due to the 1% revenue beat in core OTA business but this was partly offset by slower-than-expected recovery in Tourism business; adjusted NP was RMB788mn, up 41% YoY, and was 6.6/7.3% better than our forecast/ consensus, driven by better-than-expected operating leverage of core OTA business, as well as operation refinement of Tourism business.</li><li>OPM of the core OTA business expanded to 29.2% in 1Q25 (1Q24: 22.6%).</li><li>To account for the mixed impact from better-than-expected operating efficiency gains of core OTA business, and slower-than-expected recovery in relatively thin-margin Tourism business, we lower 2025-2027E revenue forecast by 2%, while maintaining nonGAAP net profit forecast largely unchanged. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Tongcheng Travel (TC) reported 1Q25 results: total revenue was RMB4.4bn, up 13% YoY, and was 0.7/0.9% better than our forecast/Bloomberg consensus estimates, due to the 1% revenue beat in core OTA business but this was partly offset by slower-than-expected recovery in Tourism business; adjusted NP was RMB788mn, up 41% YoY, and was 6.6/7.3% better than our forecast/ consensus, driven by better-than-expected operating leverage of core OTA business, as well as operation refinement of Tourism business.OPM of the core OTA business expanded to 29.2% in 1Q25 (1Q24: 22.6%).To account for the mixed impact from better-than-expected operating efficiency gains of core OTA business, and slower-than-expected recovery in relatively thin-margin Tourism business, we lower 2025-2027E revenue forecast by 2%, while maintaining nonGAAP net profit forecast largely unchanged. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) - 1Q earnings beat; on track to deliver solid full-year earnings growth

<ul>
<li>As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125</li>
<li>Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share</li>
<li>Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com</li>
</ul>


As in Q424, a sharp increase in OpEx led to margin compression at Trip.com in Q125
Trip.com's revenue growth in Q125 slowed vs Q424, but platform probably gained share
Within China's tourism segment, we still think the airlines can outperform Trip.com


Trip.com Q125 Results | Rising Expenses Led to Margin Compression, Again | Still Prefer Airlines

Hong Kong

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited is an investment holding company providing travel-related services in the People's Republic of China. It offers accommodation reservation, transportation ticketing, online advertising, hotel management, tourist attraction tickets, and packaged tours through its online platforms, mobile apps, and websites. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Suzhou, the People's Republic of China.

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Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

There are 10 constituent changes in June and the flow and impact is pretty large. The adds have outperformed the deletes bigly over the last 2 days...

Brian Freitas

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Domestic Activity Firmed in April | Airlines > TCOM (May 2025)

The growth of Chinese domestic air travel activity in April accelerated to almost 8% after slumping to < 1% in Q125. High domestic passenger load...

Tracking Traffic

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance Preview: 6 Changes & US$700m Trade

There could be 3 changes for the index in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.9% and the round-trip trade is US$694m. The forecast adds have...

Brian Freitas