IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/111-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27412:1" rel="noopener">111 Inc (YI US)</a>, the largest virtual pharmacy network in China, disclosed a privatisation proposal from a co-founder-led consortium at US$3.66 per ADS, a 20.0% premium to the undisturbed price. </li>
<li>For privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. The co-founders represent 92.04% of the total voting power.</li>
<li>The offer price is unattractive but this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a January 2023 completion is 11.6% and 33.4%, respectively. </li>
</ul>



111 Inc (YI US), the largest virtual pharmacy network in China, disclosed a privatisation proposal from a co-founder-led consortium at US$3.66 per ADS, a 20.0% premium to the undisturbed price. 
For privatisation to succeed, shareholders representing two-thirds of shares present and voting need to approve the deal. The co-founders represent 92.04% of the total voting power.
The offer price is unattractive but this is a done deal. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a January 2023 completion is 11.6% and 33.4%, respectively. 


111’s Opportunistic US$3.66 Bid from the Co-Founders

Equity Capital Markets

Medlive Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.</p></div><div><p>Medlive will commence trading on Thursday, 15 July. Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.20 and <a href="https://inews.hket.com/article/3006198/%E3%80%90%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1IPO%E3%80%913%E9%9A%BB%E6%96%B0%E8%82%A1%E6%9A%97%E7%9B%A4%E3%80%80%E9%86%AB%E8%84%88%E9%80%9A2192%E5%8D%871%E6%88%90%E3%80%81%E4%B8%80%E6%89%8B%E5%B8%B3%E9%9D%A2%E8%B3%BA1350%E5%85%83?mtc=40001&amp;srkw=IPO%E6%9C%80%E5%BF%AB%E6%9C%80%E9%BD%8A" target="_blank" rel="noopener">closed 10% up at HK$29.90</a> in the Futu securities grey market. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a>, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53879" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights</a>, we stated that we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$32.17 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is attractive.</p></div></div></div>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.Medlive will commence trading on Thursday, 15 July. Medlive priced its IPO at HK$27.20 and closed 10% up at HK$29.90 in the Futu securities grey market. In Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. In Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights, we stated that we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of HK$32.17 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the grey market price is attractive.

<div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/linkdoc-technology-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33499:1" rel="noopener">LinkDoc (LDOC US)</a> is a Chinese healthtech company. LinkDoc consists of LinkCare, a digital care platform for patients with critical diseases, LinkData, an AI-enabled curation system for longitudinal medical data, and LinkSolutions, a data-driven precision life sciences solution platform that helps life sciences companies accelerate clinical research and real-world adoption.</div><div></div><p>LinkDoc is backed by Temasek (11.7% of outstanding shares), NEA Partners (10.2%), China Broadband Capital (9.2%), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a> (8.4%) and MBK Partners (6.3%).</p><div><p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $17.50-19.50 per ADS, LinkDoc will have a market cap of $1.6 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $182.7 million, below the rumoured $500 million raise target. LinkDoc has received $115 million indications of interest (57.4% of the ADSs being offered) from existing shareholders (Alibaba Health, Lake Bleu, Temasek) worth $60 million and new investors (UBS Asset Management, Hudson Bay, Sage Partners) worth $55 million. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/linkdoc-technology-ipo-initiation-building-with-big-data" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53384" rel="noopener">LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data</a>, we opined that LinkDoc is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. LinkDoc focuses on oncology and has established the largest online oncology physician and patient engagement community in China. LinkDoc is benefiting from the trend of big data solutions adoption in healthcare by delivering solid growth and steadily reducing loss margins. Overall, we believe that LinkDoc is an attractive play on these market dynamics.</p></div><div>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Our relative valuation analysis suggests that LinkDoc is fairly valued at the low-end of the IPO price range. Consequently, we are inclined to sit on the sidelines awaiting a more attractive entry point.   </p></div>
<div><p><strong><em>For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight: </em></strong></p></div>
<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a> </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53879" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights</a> </p>
</div>
<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/we-doctor-ipo-initiation-patient-revolution" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50009" rel="noopener">We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution</a> </p></div>
</div>


LinkDoc (LDOC US) is a Chinese healthtech company. LinkDoc consists of LinkCare, a digital care platform for patients with critical diseases, LinkData, an AI-enabled curation system for longitudinal medical data, and LinkSolutions, a data-driven precision life sciences solution platform that helps life sciences companies accelerate clinical research and real-world adoption.LinkDoc is backed by Temasek (11.7% of outstanding shares), NEA Partners (10.2%), China Broadband Capital (9.2%), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) (8.4%) and MBK Partners (6.3%).At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $17.50-19.50 per ADS, LinkDoc will have a market cap of $1.6 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $182.7 million, below the rumoured $500 million raise target. LinkDoc has received $115 million indications of interest (57.4% of the ADSs being offered) from existing shareholders (Alibaba Health, Lake Bleu, Temasek) worth $60 million and new investors (UBS Asset Management, Hudson Bay, Sage Partners) worth $55 million. In LinkDoc Technology IPO Initiation: Building with Big Data, we opined that LinkDoc is a play on China’s healthcare industry rising spend on IT and data services. LinkDoc focuses on oncology and has established the largest online oncology physician and patient engagement community in China. LinkDoc is benefiting from the trend of big data solutions adoption in healthcare by delivering solid growth and steadily reducing loss margins. Overall, we believe that LinkDoc is an attractive play on these market dynamics.
Our relative valuation analysis suggests that LinkDoc is fairly valued at the low-end of the IPO price range. Consequently, we are inclined to sit on the sidelines awaiting a more attractive entry point.   
For readers interested in IPOs of upcoming healthtech companies, we highlight: 

Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc? 
Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights 

We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution 


LinkDoc Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medlive-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32985:1" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology (2192 HK)</a> is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.</p></div><div><p>At the proposed IPO price range of HK$24.10-27.20 per share, Medlive will have a market cap of HK$16,633.2-18,772.8 ($2.1-2.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$3,770.8 million ($486 million). </p></div><div><p>Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $220 million of the offer shares (42.93% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research, FIL Investment Management, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, GIC, Matthews Funds, Qiming Venture Partners and OrbiMed Funds.</p></div><div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/medlive-technology-ipo-initiation-what-s-up-doc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53683" rel="noopener">Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?</a>, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>Arguably, the closest peer is Doximity (DOCS US), which listed on 24 June 2021. Doximity had a stonking debut with its shares trading currently 1.2x its IPO price, suggesting strong investor sentiment on the niche physician "social-networking" market monetised primarily through advertising.</p>
<p>Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share, which is 17% above the high-point of the IPO price range. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.</p>
</div>
</div></div>

Medlive Technology (2192 HK) is the largest online professional physician platform in China as measured by the number of registered physician users as of 31 December 2020, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive derives most of its revenue from providing solutions that facilitate healthcare marketing to physicians. Medlive ranked first among physician platform-based digital healthcare marketing service providers in China as measured by revenue in 2020, with a 21.4% market share, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Medlive is a JV between M3 Inc (2413 JP) and Tiantian, each with 50% stakes.At the proposed IPO price range of HK$24.10-27.20 per share, Medlive will have a market cap of HK$16,633.2-18,772.8 ($2.1-2.4 billion). At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the total net proceeds are HK$3,770.8 million ($486 million). Seven cornerstone investors will subscribe for $220 million of the offer shares (42.93% of the offer shares at the mid-point of the IPO price). The cornerstone investors include Fidelity Management &amp; Research, FIL Investment Management, Tencent (700 HK), GIC, Matthews Funds, Qiming Venture Partners and OrbiMed Funds.
In Medlive Technology IPO Initiation: What's Up, Doc?, we stated that Medlive believes that it can compete with several players for a slice of healthcare companies’ marketing budgets due to its large and engaged physician user base, which enables it to reach a wider group of physicians more efficiently and achieve a better return on marketing spending. Medlive has strong fundamentals due to fast-paced revenue growth, rising margin and strong cash generation. We concluded that the Medlive IPO is worth a look. 

Arguably, the closest peer is Doximity (DOCS US), which listed on 24 June 2021. Doximity had a stonking debut with its shares trading currently 1.2x its IPO price, suggesting strong investor sentiment on the niche physician "social-networking" market monetised primarily through advertising.
Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share, which is 17% above the high-point of the IPO price range. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive IPO price range and strong blue-chip cornerstone support.



Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

WeDoctor Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wedoctor-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28931:1" rel="noopener">WeDoctor Holdings (1737089D HK)</a> is the largest digital medical service platform in China as measured by both the number of internet hospitals as of 31 December 2020 and the volume of digital medical consultations provided in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. We Doctor was filed for an HKEx IPO to raise around $2-3 billion, according to press reports. We Doctor counts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, Hillhouse Capital, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aia-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14895:1" rel="noopener">AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK)</a>, Sequoia Capital, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a> and Qiming Venture Partners as shareholders. </p><p>In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, individuals have become increasingly focused on personal health and wellbeing which has driven user acceptance of online healthcare platforms. The proportion of digitalisation in the Chinese health market is expected to increase rapidly from 3.3% in 2019 to 24.0% of total healthcare expenditure in 2030, according to Frost and Sullivan.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Consequently, and despite the choppy markets and waning enthusiasm for Chinese tech, the shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-health-information-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:453:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health (6618 HK)</a> are up 10%, 1% and 62% YTD, respectively. Overall, for investors willing to brave the IPO markets, we believe that We Doctor is an attractive play on the accelerating digitalisation of China’s healthcare market.</p></div>

WeDoctor Holdings (1737089D HK) is the largest digital medical service platform in China as measured by both the number of internet hospitals as of 31 December 2020 and the volume of digital medical consultations provided in 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. We Doctor was filed for an HKEx IPO to raise around $2-3 billion, according to press reports. We Doctor counts Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Hillhouse Capital, AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK), Sequoia Capital, Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) and Qiming Venture Partners as shareholders. In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, individuals have become increasingly focused on personal health and wellbeing which has driven user acceptance of online healthcare platforms. The proportion of digitalisation in the Chinese health market is expected to increase rapidly from 3.3% in 2019 to 24.0% of total healthcare expenditure in 2030, according to Frost and Sullivan.Consequently, and despite the choppy markets and waning enthusiasm for Chinese tech, the shares of Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK), Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) and JD Health (6618 HK) are up 10%, 1% and 62% YTD, respectively. Overall, for investors willing to brave the IPO markets, we believe that We Doctor is an attractive play on the accelerating digitalisation of China’s healthcare market.

We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution

China

111, Inc. operates as a digital and mobile healthcare platform. The Company offers pharmacy distribution, medical consultancy, e-prescription, and other services. 111 serves patients in China.

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111 Inc (YI US)

111’s Opportunistic US$3.66 Bid from the Co-Founders

The offer price is unattractive, but this is a done deal as the co-founders control 92.0% of the voting power. At the last close, the annualised...

Arun George

Medlive Technology IPO: Trading Debut

Medlive will commence trading on 15 July. Medlive priced at HK$27.20 and closed 10% up at HK$29.90 in the Futu grey market. Our DCF sensitivity...

Arun George

LinkDoc Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests that LinkDoc is fairly valued at the low-end of the IPO price range. Consequently, we are inclined to sit on the...

Arun George

Medlive Technology IPO: Valuation Insights

Our base-case DCF valuation is HK$31.80 per share. Overall, we would participate in the IPO due to an attractive price range and strong blue-chip...

Arun George

We Doctor IPO Initiation: Patient Revolution

We Doctor was filed for an HKEx IPO to raise around $2-3 bn. For investors willing to brave the IPO markets, We Doctor is an attractive play on the...

Arun George

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