HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Despite solid 1Q23 result, share price performance for China's tourism and hospitality companies has been unexciting. This is unjustified and we expect a pick-up going forward.</li>
<li>While their earnings multiples are high at 31.0x and 21.6x for FY23 and FY24 respectively, they should be interpreted in the context of impressive FY23-24 average EPS growth of 51.4%.</li>
<li>Anecdotal evidences showed that positive momentum will sustain - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-world-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> will stay as beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


Despite solid 1Q23 result, share price performance for China's tourism and hospitality companies has been unexciting. This is unjustified and we expect a pick-up going forward.
While their earnings multiples are high at 31.0x and 21.6x for FY23 and FY24 respectively, they should be interpreted in the context of impressive FY23-24 average EPS growth of 51.4%.
Anecdotal evidences showed that positive momentum will sustain - Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), H World Group (1179 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) will stay as beneficiaries.


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Set for Stronger Momentum Ahead

<ul>
<li>With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  </li>
<li>Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> are well positioned.</li>
<li>These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. </li>
</ul>


With re-opening of borders, China's tourism and hospitality industry should see encouraging earnings outlook over the next two years; and we are now only in the early stage of recovery.  
Online travel agencies and hotel and resorts operators including Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK), H World Group (1179 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) are well positioned.
These companies all have sound business model, industry leadership position, solid competitive strengths, comprehensive customer coverage and, for some, meaningful global presence in their respective sub-sectors. 


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

<ul>
<li>The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-elong-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huazhu-group-ltd-79e0c5b5-ad55-42ed-b8d2-a2173defd0ea" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">Huazhu Group (1179 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-film-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29943:1" rel="noopener">China Film Co (600977 CH)</a> are some of the beneficiaries.</li>
<li>As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  </li>
</ul>


The just finished "Year of the Rabbit" Chinese New Year has witnessed strong revival in travel appetite. Total domestic travelers increased 23.1% YoY, returning to 88.6% of 2019 level.

Tongcheng-Elong (780 HK), Trip.com (9961 HK), Huazhu Group (1179 HK), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK) and China Film Co (600977 CH) are some of the beneficiaries.
As we passed peak of infections and overseas PCR and visa constraints are further removed, the trend of improvement in travel demand will sustain into the National Day holidays.  


Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

<ul>
<li>China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.</li>
<li>The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. </li>
<li>Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  </li>
</ul>


China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.
The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. 
Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  


China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

<ul>
<li>The sharp surge in Omicron-driven local cases has driven more stringent measures by local governments. On ground in Shanghai, we see more tightened measures being implemented over the weekend. </li>
<li>The measures will reduce a lot of foot traffic and lower discretionary spending appetite in Mar, and this will negatively weigh on many 1Q22 results to be announced in late-Apr. </li>
<li>We advocate a long staples, short discretionary strategy in the near term. Also, travel sector will be hit, and on net-net basis, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> looks to be a loser.</li>
</ul>


The sharp surge in Omicron-driven local cases has driven more stringent measures by local governments. On ground in Shanghai, we see more tightened measures being implemented over the weekend. 
The measures will reduce a lot of foot traffic and lower discretionary spending appetite in Mar, and this will negatively weigh on many 1Q22 results to be announced in late-Apr. 
We advocate a long staples, short discretionary strategy in the near term. Also, travel sector will be hit, and on net-net basis, Meituan (3690 HK) looks to be a loser.


China on the Ground: Escalating Measures to Combat Omicron and What Stocks Are Impacted?

China

Fosun Tourism Group is a world-leading family leisure and vacation group that provides tourism and leisure solutions across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates resorts such as Club Med and Atlantis Sanya, and offers various tourism and leisure services. Fosun Tourism Group was founded in 2009 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

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Fosun Tourism (6T8 GR)

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Set for Stronger Momentum Ahead

We anticipate sustained earnings strength for China's tourism and hospitality industry following impressive 1Q23 results. This should underpin pick...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Year of Revenge

We are only in early stage of China's tourism and hospitality recovery, after its re-opening of borders in Jan. We identify Tongcheng, H World,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Chinese New Year Travel Market: Roundup And Implications

Total domestic travelers in China was up 23.1% in CNY. Tongcheng-Elong, Trip.com, Huazhu Group, Fosun Tourism, China Southern Airlines and China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

The refined COVID combating measures in China is welcoming and should benefit the consumer discretionary, travel and hospitality and airlines...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China on the Ground: Escalating Measures to Combat Omicron and What Stocks Are Impacted?

Omicron combating measures have been stepped up over the weekend and this will make a dent on the Mar operations of many companies. This will be...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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