HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.</li>
<li>Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry's CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.</li>
<li>Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.</li>
</ul>


The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies is about to burst as some founders/shareholders have started to reduce their holdings and cash out. We recommend investors to be rational.
Domestic innovative drugs market size would be about RMB600 billion by 2035. It is estimated the whole innovative drug industry's CAGR would be about 15% for the next decade.
Innovent announced Placement with the Placing price of HK$78.36/share. However, valuation is clearly at a high level. A more suitable option is to take profits rather than buy.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> aims to raise around US$500m for R&amp;D and marketing.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, with the overall results being mixed but recent deals have done well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) aims to raise around US$500m for R&amp;D and marketing.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, with the overall results being mixed but recent deals have done well.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Innovent Biologics Placement - Second for the Month, Stock Has Doubled but Momentum Is Strong

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Innovent Biologics Inc / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Strong results reflect progress of existing approved drugs including key oncology drugs.</li>
<li>Mazdutide is set to be released in 2025, and the company is currently making plans for the release.</li>
<li>Innovent Biologics continues to add to its drug development portfolio.</li>
</ul>


Strong results reflect progress of existing approved drugs including key oncology drugs.
Mazdutide is set to be released in 2025, and the company is currently making plans for the release.
Innovent Biologics continues to add to its drug development portfolio.


<ul>
<li>Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.</li>
<li>China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.</li>
<li>We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.</li>
</ul>


Innovent is most well-known as the developer of mazdutide in China, however this is overshadowing a strong portfolio of oncology drugs in a very high growth market.
China’s approach to healthcare is being defined by having the biggest diabetic population, over 4 million new cancer cases per year, and over 100 million living with obesity.
We expect the valuation gap between the two first-to-market GLP-1 drugs, and competition to close. Oncology drug sales and valuations will continue its growth trajectory.


Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

<ul>
<li>Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.</li>
<li>Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem</li>
<li>Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.</li>
</ul>


Innovent’s 2023 product revenue was RMB5.7 billion. In 2024, product revenue growth would remain strong (e.g. 35% YoY).The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in 2025.
Innovent has started paving the way for mazdutide more than a year in advance and building various channels.Normally speaking, mazdutide could get the approval in 25Q2. Its CDMO is Asymchem
Share price of Innovent was once dragged down by the CXO plunge due to the US Draft Bill, but unlike CXOs, innovative drugs do not involve supply chain security issues.


2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

China

Innovent Biologics, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company develops, manufactures, and distributes monoclonal antibody drug candidates for the treatment of oncology, ophthalmology, autoimmune, cardiovascular, and other diseases. Innovent Biologics serves customers in China.

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Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies may burst soon, with some founders/shareholders already cashing out. Innovent's Placing Price of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Placement - Second for the Month, Stock Has Doubled but Momentum Is Strong

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) aims to raise around US$500m for R&D and marketing. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)

Innovent Biologics sees strong results from existing drugs, prepares for release of Mazdutide in 2025, and expands drug development portfolio.

daaimon

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

daaimon

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Innovent's product revenue growth will remain strong in 2024.The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.29) - Biotech Valuation Bubble Is About to Burst, Innovent's Placement

The valuation bubble of innovative drug companies may burst soon, with some founders/shareholders already cashing out. Innovent's Placing Price of...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics Placement - Second for the Month, Stock Has Doubled but Momentum Is Strong

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) aims to raise around US$500m for R&D and marketing. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics.

Sumeet Singh

Update on Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)

​Innovent Biologics sees strong results from existing drugs, prepares for release of Mazdutide in 2025, and expands drug development portfolio.

daaimon

Innovent Biologics(1801 HK)– More than Just a GLP-1 Play

Mazdutide's strong results will position it well against the competition, and the valuation gap will narrow. The oncology portfolio will continue...

daaimon

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - Recent Promising Business Updates and 2024 Outlook

Innovent's product revenue growth will remain strong in 2024.The main flashpoint for performance is after the approval of mazdutide in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent Biologics sees strong results from existing drugs, prepares for release of Mazdutide in 2025, and expands drug development portfolio.