Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Hengrui outlicenses once-weekly oral obesity drug candidate HRS-1596, to Novo for total deal value of $2.6B. EC revoked the EU marketing authorization for Hansoh’s lung cancer drug aumolertinib.</li>
<li>Roche halts development of obesity drug candidate emugrobart and returns all rights to Chugai. Daiichi Sankyo has withdrawn the BLA seeking accelerated approval in the U.S. for I-DXd for ES-SCLC.</li>
<li>Otsuka initiates NDA submission to the FDA for zipalertinib for the treatment of NSCLC. Sun Pharma inlicenses hypercholesterolaemia and dyslipidaemia drug lerodalcibep from LIB Therapeutics.</li>
</ul>


Hengrui outlicenses once-weekly oral obesity drug candidate HRS-1596, to Novo for total deal value of $2.6B. EC revoked the EU marketing authorization for Hansoh’s lung cancer drug aumolertinib.
Roche halts development of obesity drug candidate emugrobart and returns all rights to Chugai. Daiichi Sankyo has withdrawn the BLA seeking accelerated approval in the U.S. for I-DXd for ES-SCLC.
Otsuka initiates NDA submission to the FDA for zipalertinib for the treatment of NSCLC. Sun Pharma inlicenses hypercholesterolaemia and dyslipidaemia drug lerodalcibep from LIB Therapeutics.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 4) – Hengrui, Hansoh, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, Sun Pharma

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We’ve raised our forecast based on 25Q4 product revenue.In next two years, revenue YoY growth needs to be maintained above 30% to achieve the goal of RMB20bn revenue by 2027.</li>
<li>The collaboration with Lilly does indeed bring decent cash flow to Innovent in the short term. However, unlike the purely optimistic view, our feelings about it are somewhat "complicated".</li>
<li>The essence is that Innovent's role is Lilly's CRO.So, the timeline to establish its own overseas commercialization system will be postponed, thus leading to reduced imagination of future valuation expansion.</li>
</ul>


We’ve raised our forecast based on 25Q4 product revenue.In next two years, revenue YoY growth needs to be maintained above 30% to achieve the goal of RMB20bn revenue by 2027.
The collaboration with Lilly does indeed bring decent cash flow to Innovent in the short term. However, unlike the purely optimistic view, our feelings about it are somewhat "complicated".
The essence is that Innovent's role is Lilly's CRO.So, the timeline to establish its own overseas commercialization system will be postponed, thus leading to reduced imagination of future valuation expansion.


2026 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - The Cooperation with Lilly and the Concerns Behind

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following two periods of profitability, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> at the close on 5 December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK)</a> is also an add to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> at the December rebalance.</li>
</ul>


Following two periods of profitability, Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) at the close on 5 December.

Innovent Biologics Inc (1801 HK) is also an add to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in December, so this inclusion increases the flow and impact.
Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and the estimated round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn (US$1.2bn). Big capping outflows for Alibaba (9988 HK) at the December rebalance.


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Healthcare Analyst

Wilfred Yuen

<ul>
<li>We highlight key updates from October's ESMO meeting: 1) Akeso's ivonescimab in 1L BTC, 2) Kelun/Merck's sac-TMT (Lung04, Lung06, TroFuse-005), 3) Hutchmed/AZ's savo, 4) Hansoh/GSK's B7H3 ADC, 5) Innovent IBI363...</li>
<li>BD deal flows this week: 1) Innocare/Lilly on 5-target drug discovery, 2) Earendil Labs/Genentech on bispecific, 3) Insilico Medicine/AI frontier model lab, 4) BoomRay/Novartis on radioligand, 4) Henlius/Amberstone on TCE</li>
<li>Other updates/news: 1) LEGN's 5-year Carvykti OS data in Cart-2 study, 2) BeOne's first-in-class GPC3/4-1BB entering ph3 study in HCC, 3) TYK/Qilu deal update...</li>
</ul>


We highlight key updates from October's ESMO meeting: 1) Akeso's ivonescimab in 1L BTC, 2) Kelun/Merck's sac-TMT (Lung04, Lung06, TroFuse-005), 3) Hutchmed/AZ's savo, 4) Hansoh/GSK's B7H3 ADC, 5) Innovent IBI363...
BD deal flows this week: 1) Innocare/Lilly on 5-target drug discovery, 2) Earendil Labs/Genentech on bispecific, 3) Insilico Medicine/AI frontier model lab, 4) BoomRay/Novartis on radioligand, 4) Henlius/Amberstone on TCE
Other updates/news: 1) LEGN's 5-year Carvykti OS data in Cart-2 study, 2) BeOne's first-in-class GPC3/4-1BB entering ph3 study in HCC, 3) TYK/Qilu deal update...


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-kelun-biotech-biopharm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40071:1" rel="noopener">Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/techtronic-industries-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4561:1" rel="noopener">Techtronic Ind. (669 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vesync" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31067:1" rel="noopener">Vesync (2148 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chervon-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35309:1" rel="noopener">Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> have a very high reliance on the US market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vtech-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18812:1" rel="noopener">Vtech Hldgs (303 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haier-smart-home-co-ltd-b3ef445f-0f54-4586-8c58-9073de98d60e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31105:1" rel="noopener">Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tcl-multimedia-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15654:1" rel="noopener">Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK)</a> ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. </li>
<li>The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prada-s-p-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:889:1" rel="noopener">Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Sichuan Kelun-Biotech Bio (6990 HK), Techtronic Ind. (669 HK), Vesync (2148 HK), Chervon Hldgs (2285 HK), and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) have a very high reliance on the US market.

Vtech Hldgs (303 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK), Haier Smart Home (6690 HK), and Tcl Multimedia (1070 HK) ranked lower on the list, but consumer cutbacks will have a bigger impact. 
The spillover effect of a US recession to other countries will pressurise companies that have low direct exposure, like Orient Overseas International (316 HK) and Prada S.P.A. (1913 HK).


China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

China

Innovent Biologics is a biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and commercializes innovative medicines. The company focuses on therapeutic areas including oncology, autoimmune, cardiovascular and metabolic, and ophthalmology diseases, with 18 products currently on the market. Innovent Biologics was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.

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Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 4) – Hengrui, Hansoh, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, Sun Pharma

Hengrui stuck $2.6B outlicensing deal with Novo. EC revoked EU marketing authorization of Hansoh’s aumolertinib. Otsuka initiates NDA submission to...

Tina Banerjee

2026 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - The Cooperation with Lilly and the Concerns Behind

The CRO-type R&D collaboration with Lilly is expected to delay the timeline to establish Innovent's own overseas commercialization system, leading...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

China Healthcare Weekly Wrap (21-25 Sep)

We highlight 1) key studies to watch for upcoming October's ESMO updates, 2) deal flows Innocare/Lilly, BoomRay/Novartis, Earendil Labs...

Wilfred Yuen

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

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APAC Healthcare Weekly (Oct 4) – Hengrui, Hansoh, Chugai Pharma, Daiichi Sankyo, Otsuka, Sun Pharma

Hengrui stuck $2.6B outlicensing deal with Novo. EC revoked EU marketing authorization of Hansoh’s aumolertinib. Otsuka initiates NDA submission to...

Tina Banerjee

2026 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK) - The Cooperation with Lilly and the Concerns Behind

The CRO-type R&D collaboration with Lilly is expected to delay the timeline to establish Innovent's own overseas commercialization system, leading...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Innovent Biologics Turns a Profit, Gets Added

Innovent Bio is an add in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 2.3% and round-trip trade is HK$9.2bn. Innovent Bio has also been added to the HSCEI,...

Brian Freitas

China Healthcare Weekly Wrap (21-25 Sep)

We highlight 1) key studies to watch for upcoming October's ESMO updates, 2) deal flows Innocare/Lilly, BoomRay/Novartis, Earendil Labs...

Wilfred Yuen

China & HK Strategy: Who Are the Victims of a US Recession?

​Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Reliance on the US market varies among HK-listed companies, with some having high direct exposure to a recession. Those with low direct exposure...