Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH premia bounce back last week but the "skew" of wide premia converging and narrow premia moving wider continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.</li>
<li>The previous week smelled like an RMB counter trade was being set up, "confirmed" by a Caixin article the weekend. The HKEX "confirmation" this past week, well, maybe wasn't one.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week's Monitor.</li>
</ul>


AH premia bounce back last week but the "skew" of wide premia converging and narrow premia moving wider continues. It has paid to be long wide H discounts.
The previous week smelled like an RMB counter trade was being set up, "confirmed" by a Caixin article the weekend. The HKEX "confirmation" this past week, well, maybe wasn't one.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week's Monitor.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025):  Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the "skew" i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.</li>
<li>This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2025-06-13/cx-briefing-yuan-trading-of-hong-kong-stocks-expected-for-mainland-investors-102330224.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> Friday.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the "skew" i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025):  HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, "Beautiful Skew Move"

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) back down nearly 3%. CATL 10% through still.</li>
<li>Sharp skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium &lt;20% saw H underperform sharply. Those in the 40-100% AH Premium range saw H outperform. Quiddity Portfolio alpha strong.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) back down nearly 3%. CATL 10% through still.
Sharp skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium &lt;20% saw H underperform sharply. Those in the 40-100% AH Premium range saw H outperform. Quiddity Portfolio alpha strong.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

China

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited is a major Chinese pharmaceutical firm engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of traditional Chinese medicines, Western pharmaceuticals, chemical raw materials, and health products. The company operates across segments including Great Southern Traditional Chinese Medicine, Great Health, Great Commerce, and Great Medical. It was founded on September 1, 1997, and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (874 HK)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical (874 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise

AH Premia bounced this past week to 20 June. Possible "sell the news" on the HK headline of RMB counters coming to Southbound. But "beautiful skew"...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for May and highlighted flows for Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile. Inflows in May is slowed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

AH Premia contracted but it was mostly in the 40-100% area where they did. Tighter than 40% (or H premium) saw Hs underperform. Quiddity alpha...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlighted flows for Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 20 June 2025): Skew Move Continues as SB Buys But AH Premia Rise

AH Premia bounced this past week to 20 June. Possible "sell the news" on the HK headline of RMB counters coming to Southbound. But "beautiful skew"...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, "Beautiful Skew Move"

H-shares outperform A-shares dramatically with "beautiful skew" as very wide AH premia shrink most, medium less, smallest premia the least. Feels...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (May): Inflows Slowed Down

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for May and highlighted flows for Tencent, Meituan, Xiaomi, CCB, China Mobile. Inflows in May is slowed...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

A/H Premium Tracker (To 30 May 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

AH Premia contracted but it was mostly in the 40-100% area where they did. Tighter than 40% (or H premium) saw Hs underperform. Quiddity alpha...

Travis Lundy

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlighted flows for Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM