Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500</a> futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.</li>
<li>
Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).</li>
<li>
Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.</li>
</ul>



Market Reaction: The announcement of US reciprocal tariffs led to significantly lower market open throughout Asia-Pacific. In the US, S&amp;P 500 futures dropped -3.5%, with the VIX spiking to 23.45.

Impact on Japan: Japan faces a 24% tariff, with specific sectors like automobiles hit with 25%. This led to a 4.5% drop in the Nikkei 225, stabilizing at 34,600 (-3.2%).

Volatility Increase: The Nikkei 225 VIX index jumped from previous levels in the low 20's to rise above 38 before retreating to 32.8, indicating the 99th percentile of implied volatility.


Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM</li>
<li>TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.</li>
<li>2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility</li>
</ul>


Global semiconductor sales for the month of January 2025 hit $56.5 billion, an increase of 17.9% YoY, but down 1.7% MoM
TSMC is also off to an excellent start in 2025. YTD revenues through February are up 39.2%.
2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility


Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>AI back in focus with NVDA's Jensen set to deliver his keynote tomorrow.</li>
<li>Intel jumping with the new CEO looking to shake up its AI lineup and further trim the fat.</li>
<li>Buffet increasing stakes in the Trading Houses extremely well flagged so don't expect much surprise.</li>
</ul>


AI back in focus with NVDA's Jensen set to deliver his keynote tomorrow.
Intel jumping with the new CEO looking to shake up its AI lineup and further trim the fat.
Buffet increasing stakes in the Trading Houses extremely well flagged so don't expect much surprise.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shrugging off Megacap Weakness as Quantum Shines

<ul>
<li>Expect a strong follow through from Japan's SPE despite a rare outperformance last week</li>
<li>Laggards such as TEL, Screen and Micronics may be targets.  </li>
<li>Many mainstay EU defence names surged to new highs; expect heavies and JSW upside</li>
</ul>


Expect a strong follow through from Japan's SPE despite a rare outperformance last week
Laggards such as TEL, Screen and Micronics may be targets.  
Many mainstay EU defence names surged to new highs; expect heavies and JSW upside


Japan Morning Connection: Solid Tech Rebound Ahead of the NVDA Developers Conference This Week

<ul>
<li>Yesterday's tech gains failing to hold setting a muted tone to start for JP peers.</li>
<li>Softbank's $7bn data center buildout with Open AI may need 100,000 GPU's.</li>
<li>Kose upgrade + Ulta Beauty better than expected after market numbers points to upside off lows.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday's tech gains failing to hold setting a muted tone to start for JP peers.
Softbank's $7bn data center buildout with Open AI may need 100,000 GPU's.
Kose upgrade + Ulta Beauty better than expected after market numbers points to upside off lows.


Japan Morning Connection: Tariff War Escalation Zaps Yesterdays Growth Rebound

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron (8035 JP)

Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shrugging off Megacap Weakness as Quantum Shines

AI is back in focus as NVDA GTC developers conference. Intel's new CEO aims to shake up its AI lineup. Buffet's increased stakes in Trading Houses...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Solid Tech Rebound Ahead of the NVDA Developers Conference This Week

Japan's SPE likely to continue strong performance, with potential targets in laggards like TEL, Screen, and Micronics. EU defense stocks have been...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tariff War Escalation Zaps Yesterdays Growth Rebound

Tech gains falter, Softbank may see a lift on news of data center project with Open AI, Ulta Beauty exceed expectations, setting a positive tone...

Andrew Jackson

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Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) Drops Amid US Tariffs: Implied Volatility Hits Extreme Levels

​US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...

Gaudenz Schneider

Semiconductors. Key Indicator Updates, 2024 In Review, 2025 Forecasts

2025 Semi forecast? Think 2024 without the memory boom and way more volatility. Chaos will ultimately beget opportunity, just not yet...

William Keating

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Shrugging off Megacap Weakness as Quantum Shines

​AI is back in focus as NVDA GTC developers conference. Intel's new CEO aims to shake up its AI lineup. Buffet's increased stakes in Trading Houses...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Solid Tech Rebound Ahead of the NVDA Developers Conference This Week

​Japan's SPE likely to continue strong performance, with potential targets in laggards like TEL, Screen, and Micronics. EU defense stocks have been...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Tariff War Escalation Zaps Yesterdays Growth Rebound

​Tech gains falter, Softbank may see a lift on news of data center project with Open AI, Ulta Beauty exceed expectations, setting a positive tone...

Andrew Jackson

US reciprocal tariffs announcement led to lower market open in Asia-Pacific, with Japan facing a 24% tariff causing a drop in Nikkei 225 and a...

AI is back in focus as NVDA GTC developers conference. Intel's new CEO aims to shake up its AI lineup. Buffet's increased stakes in Trading Houses...

Japan's SPE likely to continue strong performance, with potential targets in laggards like TEL, Screen, and Micronics. EU defense stocks have been...

Tech gains falter, Softbank may see a lift on news of data center project with Open AI, Ulta Beauty exceed expectations, setting a positive tone...