Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights</li><li>In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assets</li><li>The risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the most</li><li>Australia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convinced</li><li>Hang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears</li></ul><p> </p>

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weightsIn all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets, which is by far the most important category of risk- weighted assetsThe risk is that under new regulations those banks benefiting from internal models to drive their credit risk estimates, will be penalized the mostAustralia's banks stand out as possibly being hardest hit, but we are not convincedHang Seng Bank, is at the other end of the spectrum, and may be less over capitalised than it appears 

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Macroeconomics

<p style="text-align: justify;">Ecstrat were amongst the first to highlight the explosive growth of working capital in non-financial companies in China. We monitor over 3,000 listed Chinese corporates and with 20% of those having now reported for 2015 we can start to draw some conclusions.</p><div class="content-highlight"><ul><li><em><strong>The 'cash flow recession' in corporate China continues.</strong></em></li></ul></div><div class="content-highlight"><ul><li><em><strong>Almost all sectors have experienced a rise in receivable days when comparing 2015 to 2014.</strong></em></li></ul></div><div class="content-highlight"><p><em><strong>Almost all sectors have seen an even larger increase in payable days, suggesting that the listed</strong></em>…</p></div>

Ecstrat were amongst the first to highlight the explosive growth of working capital in non-financial companies in China. We monitor over 3,000 listed Chinese corporates and with 20% of those having now reported for 2015 we can start to draw some conclusions.The 'cash flow recession' in corporate China continues.Almost all sectors have experienced a rise in receivable days when comparing 2015 to 2014.Almost all sectors have seen an even larger increase in payable days, suggesting that the listed…

Large Caps Squeezing SMEs in Early Reading of FY2015 Chinese Working Capital

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 2nd.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC, China Life, Alibaba, CK Asset.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 2nd.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC, China Life, Alibaba, CK Asset.


HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 2nd): Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>Fed <span data-term="goog_1582699526">Wednesday</span>, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength </li></ul><ul><li>Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)</li></ul><ul><li>ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ</li></ul>

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro crosses &amp; global macro traders will still be digesting the Draghi surprise &amp; the epitome of a poorly placed sentence (What were they thinking!?)ECB surprise &amp; price action last week is not similar to the BoJ &amp; Yen movements, ‘same same but very different’. The market is ‘wrong’ to jump the gun on no further QE in the EZ

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

We ask the questions that need to be asked, Hong Bao Media Holdings Pte Ltd

Mark Laudi • Investor Central

We ask the questions that need to be asked

Hong Bao Media Holdings Pte Ltd

<p>Now that Singapore's banks have published their results, veteran market watchers Song Seng Wun and Kevin Scully take an in-depth look at China's economic woes and give their calls on the banks and other financial services companies.</p>

Now that Singapore's banks have published their results, veteran market watchers Song Seng Wun and Kevin Scully take an in-depth look at China's economic woes and give their calls on the banks and other financial services companies.

Video: How Much Will a Bursting of the China Bubble Hurt Singapore Banks?

China

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. is a state-owned securities brokerage company in China, offering comprehensive financial services including securities brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and wealth management. Its core business segments encompass enterprise finance, personal finance, institutional services and trading, and investment management. The company was founded on September 16, 1996, and is headquartered in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China.

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Shenwan Hongyuan (6806 HK)

Bank Regulatory Changes to Credit Risk

BIS will no longer allow internal modeling for banks to arrive at risk weights In all likelihood, there will be a rise in credit risk assets,...

Daniel Tabbush

Large Caps Squeezing SMEs in Early Reading of FY2015 Chinese Working Capital

Ecstrat were amongst the first to highlight the explosive growth of working capital in non-financial companies in China. We monitor over 3,000...

Mark Artherton

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Apr 2nd): Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC

We analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted flows for Meituan, BOC, Pop Mart Intl, SMIC, Xiaomi, ICBC, CNOOC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Macro Take: WK 11 - ECB Digestion, Fed Wednesday & Potentially Risk-On Reversal

Fed Wednesday, where market will be surprised by a more hawkish than expected statement. Risk is to the upside for greater US dollar strength Euro...

Kay Van-Petersen

Video: How Much Will a Bursting of the China Bubble Hurt Singapore Banks?

Now that Singapore's banks have published their results, veteran market watchers Song Seng Wun and Kevin Scully take an in-depth look at China's...

Mark Laudi • Investor Central

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Market Cap (USDm)

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