HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation / Equity Bottom-Up

China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)

<ul>
<li>China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a> is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.</li>
<li>A combination with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-galaxy-securities-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:165:1" rel="noopener">China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK)</a> may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. </li>
<li>Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. </li>
</ul>


China's securities industry is under a wave of consolidation. China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) is interesting given its leadership in the investment banking business.
A combination with China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) may bring synergy, given their different focuses. This will create the 3rd largest securities house in China. 
Even without a merger, CICC also looks attractive with the US interest rate trending down. It is best set to gain upon the revival of the Hong Kong IPO market. 


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.</li>
<li>The mega merger between  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haitong-securities-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5665:1" rel="noopener">Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.</li>
<li>Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.</li>
</ul>


China considers launching a stock stabilization fund which could release RmB800B in liquidity support for the market.  Securities firms and insurance companies will be the major beneficiaries.
The mega merger between  Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H) (6837 HK) and Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) could be the precursor to further industry consolidation.
Hong Kong trading volumes and IPO's set to surge as Beijing lifts sentiment.


<ul>
<li>While still progressing, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)</a>'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. </li>
<li>The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.</li>
</ul>


While still progressing, China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK)'s merger will boost earnings. For 1Q26, the combined group will have seen a 66.9% earnings growth. 
The IPO market boom is beneficial to CICC. YTD, it has a 36.9% share of the number of deals and 39.4% share in funds raised in Hong Kong.
Assuming completion by end-Sep, CICC will trade at 8.8x PER for FY27, a 26% premium to the sector average. However, its leadership position and the potential synergy support this.


CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities / Equity Bottom-Up

Bright Smart Securities & Commodities (1428 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bright-smart-securities-and" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20511:1" rel="noopener">Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)</a>'s earnings rebounded solidly by 20.4% YoY in 2H FY25, fueled by higher client accounts and assets, and better HK market turnover.</li>
<li>BSS has been an underperformer against peers since May, as other brokerage companies rallied on the back of potential entry into the virtual asset dealing business. </li>
<li>Ant Financial will be able to transform BSS into a sizeable cross-asset house. The share price's current implied earnings growth and PER valuations are conservative.</li>
</ul>



Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)'s earnings rebounded solidly by 20.4% YoY in 2H FY25, fueled by higher client accounts and assets, and better HK market turnover.
BSS has been an underperformer against peers since May, as other brokerage companies rallied on the back of potential entry into the virtual asset dealing business. 
Ant Financial will be able to transform BSS into a sizeable cross-asset house. The share price's current implied earnings growth and PER valuations are conservative.


Bright Smart (1428 HK): Bright and Smart FY25

<ul>
<li>By way of its 54.79% ownership in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK)</a> is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  </li>
<li>The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.</li>
<li>ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.</li>
</ul>


By way of its 54.79% ownership in Zheshang Securities (601878 CH), Zhejiang Expressway Co H (576 HK) is an attractive indirect vehicle to access the mainland securities sector.  
The attributable market cap of Zheshang equals 90% of ZJE's market cap, implying that the toll road business is almost free. However, Zheshang only contributed 16% of ZJE's 1H24 profit.
ZJE trades on 6.7x FY24F PER, vs. 31.3x for Zheshang and 17.6x for H-share securities companies. A stable toll road business also minimises the risk for ZJE.


Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

China

Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. is a state-owned securities brokerage company in China, offering comprehensive financial services including securities brokerage, investment banking, asset management, and wealth management. Its core business segments encompass enterprise finance, personal finance, institutional services and trading, and investment management. The company was founded on September 16, 1996, and is headquartered in Urumqi, Xinjiang, China.

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Shenwan Hongyuan (6806 HK)

CICC (3908 HK): M&A Possibility

CICC announced that it has entered into agreements to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, instead of the widely rumoured China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Bright and Smart FY25

BSS saw a 20.4% YoY earnings rebound in 2H FY25, driven by increased client accounts and assets, and better market turnover. Ant Financial's...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

CICC (3908 HK): M&A Possibility

CICC announced that it has entered into agreements to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities, instead of the widely rumoured China...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Hong Kong/China Brokers: TAKE THE OFFER!

The HK/China brokers: 6030, 3908, 6886, 6806, 6881, 1776, 6178, 1456, 165, and 6099 have gained between 90% and 100% since the report was published...

David Mudd

CICC (3908 HK): It's Getting More Interesting

​Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Bright Smart (1428 HK): Bright and Smart FY25

​BSS saw a 20.4% YoY earnings rebound in 2H FY25, driven by increased client accounts and assets, and better market turnover. Ant Financial's...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK): Cheap Access to the Roaring Securities Sector

​Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Merger boosts earnings for CICC, as the combined group's earnings surged 66.9% in 1Q26. It led the Hong Kong IPO market with strong growth and...

BSS saw a 20.4% YoY earnings rebound in 2H FY25, driven by increased client accounts and assets, and better market turnover. Ant Financial's...

Zhejiang Expressway provides indirect cheap access to mainland securities through its ownership in Zheshang Securities, with a stable toll road...