Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>For the better part of two decades, Singaporean real estate investment trusts (REITs) have provided an efficient and popular exposure to quality large-scale commercial properties. </li>
<li>Yet as global central banks hike interest rates to address inflationary pressures, can REITs retain their attractiveness?</li>
<li>SREITs have corrected as Singaporean interest rates have increased. The question is whether higher interest rates are baked in, and which SREITs will hold up; and which ones will not?</li>
</ul>


For the better part of two decades, Singaporean real estate investment trusts (REITs) have provided an efficient and popular exposure to quality large-scale commercial properties. 
Yet as global central banks hike interest rates to address inflationary pressures, can REITs retain their attractiveness?
SREITs have corrected as Singaporean interest rates have increased. The question is whether higher interest rates are baked in, and which SREITs will hold up; and which ones will not?


S-REITs: Investing In An Inflationary Environment

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Frasers Hospitality Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Most of the countries that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/frasers-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:913:1" rel="noopener">Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP)</a> has assets in have their borders already opened. </li>
<li>The full impact of the reopening will only be seen in the subsequent quarters thus it is almost certain that next quarter's result will be better than the past one.</li>
<li>The upside from privatization is mostly priced in but the recovery of the business is real albeit potentially gradual. </li>
</ul>


Most of the countries that Frasers Hospitality Trust (FHT SP) has assets in have their borders already opened. 
The full impact of the reopening will only be seen in the subsequent quarters thus it is almost certain that next quarter's result will be better than the past one.
The upside from privatization is mostly priced in but the recovery of the business is real albeit potentially gradual. 


Fraser Hospitality Trust (FRHO): Privatization + Recovery.

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>Singaporean property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singhaiyi-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19307:1" rel="noopener">SingHaiyi (SHG SP)</a> has announced a <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/Offer_Announcement.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=689919" target="_blank" rel="noopener">voluntary conditional cash Offer</a> from Gordan and Celine Tang, who control 75.56% of shares out. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>The Offer Price of S$0.117/share is an 8.3% premium to last close and 0.78x P/NAV. The acceptance condition is 90%, including the Tang's stake, although the Tang's reserve the right to reduce this to 50%. Family members with 2.81% have given an irrecoverable to tender into the Offer taking the accumulated holding to 78.37%. Save for the acceptance condition, the Offer is unconditional in all other respects.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>This appears a relatively listless Offer premium, however, it pitches SingHaiyi around a multi-year high. The Offer has not been declared final.</p>
<p>The entire construct is reminiscent of the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2540:1" rel="noopener">GL Ltd (GLL SP)</a> - <em><a href="https://skr.ma/SdJKh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco</a></em> - which was successfully completed after terms were bumped. </p>
</div>
<div>
<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


Singaporean property play SingHaiyi (SHG SP) has announced a voluntary conditional cash Offer from Gordan and Celine Tang, who control 75.56% of shares out. 


The Offer Price of S$0.117/share is an 8.3% premium to last close and 0.78x P/NAV. The acceptance condition is 90%, including the Tang's stake, although the Tang's reserve the right to reduce this to 50%. Family members with 2.81% have given an irrecoverable to tender into the Offer taking the accumulated holding to 78.37%. Save for the acceptance condition, the Offer is unconditional in all other respects.


This appears a relatively listless Offer premium, however, it pitches SingHaiyi around a multi-year high. The Offer has not been declared final.
The entire construct is reminiscent of the Offer from Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK) for GL Ltd (GLL SP) - GL Limited (GLL SP): Privatisation Offer Renews Interest In Guoco - which was successfully completed after terms were bumped. 


As always, more below the fold.


SingHaiyi Group (SHG SP): Tang's Conditional Offer

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-cayman-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Cayman (1821 HK)</a> has <a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/202108_01%20Major%20and%20Connected%20Transaction%20in%20Relation%20to%20the%20Proposed%20Acquisition%20of%20ARA%20Asset%20Managament%20Limited.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=677405" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> it is acquiring unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn, the completion of which will result in the world's third-largest real estate management company with total assets under management of ~US$129bn.</p>
<p>Under the terms of the US$5,192mn transaction, ESR will issue US$4.7bn via new ESR shares (US$4.286mn) and vendor loan notes (US$387mn); and US$519mn in cash, to be funded by a US$250mn placement to SMBC, and the remainder (US$269mn) in debt. The scrip/cash split is 90/10.</p>
<p>All of the ARA shareholders are rolling over their shares  - and will mostly be subject to a six-month lock-up - and will hold ~28% of the enlarged entity at completion.</p>
<p>The transaction requires the approval from ESR shareholders by way of an ordinary resolution. Irrevocables totaling 4.6%, to vote in favour of the deal, have been received from ESR's founders, together with OMERS and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com Inc. (9618 HK)</a>.</p>
<p>There are various pre-conditions attached to the deal, with an EGM expected to be convened before 31 October. The deal may be wrapped up late 4Q21, early 1Q22.</p>
<p>Much more below the fold. </p>
</div>


ESR Cayman (1821 HK) has announced it is acquiring unlisted ARA Asset Management for US$5.2bn, the completion of which will result in the world's third-largest real estate management company with total assets under management of ~US$129bn.
Under the terms of the US$5,192mn transaction, ESR will issue US$4.7bn via new ESR shares (US$4.286mn) and vendor loan notes (US$387mn); and US$519mn in cash, to be funded by a US$250mn placement to SMBC, and the remainder (US$269mn) in debt. The scrip/cash split is 90/10.
All of the ARA shareholders are rolling over their shares  - and will mostly be subject to a six-month lock-up - and will hold ~28% of the enlarged entity at completion.
The transaction requires the approval from ESR shareholders by way of an ordinary resolution. Irrevocables totaling 4.6%, to vote in favour of the deal, have been received from ESR's founders, together with OMERS and JD.com Inc. (9618 HK).
There are various pre-conditions attached to the deal, with an EGM expected to be convened before 31 October. The deal may be wrapped up late 4Q21, early 1Q22.
Much more below the fold. 


ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management

Far East Hospitality Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/far-east-hospitality-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19061:1" rel="noopener">Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP)</a> is the only hospitality REITs in Singapore with a 100% domestic hospitality exposure and a higher fixed rental component that brings a defensive element during a difficult market environment. </p>
<p>ICA has announced that Mainland Chinese tourists may seek entry to Singapore by applying for Air Travel Pass without the need of being quarantined if tested COVID-19 negative. Mainland Chinese makes up the largest constituents of tourists in Singapore. </p>
<p>Despite having a higher fixed rental revenue component compared to the peer, the company has only outperformed the peers by 10% and at 23x PER, it is not too expensive considering the rebound potential. </p>

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP) is the only hospitality REITs in Singapore with a 100% domestic hospitality exposure and a higher fixed rental component that brings a defensive element during a difficult market environment. 
ICA has announced that Mainland Chinese tourists may seek entry to Singapore by applying for Air Travel Pass without the need of being quarantined if tested COVID-19 negative. Mainland Chinese makes up the largest constituents of tourists in Singapore. 
Despite having a higher fixed rental revenue component compared to the peer, the company has only outperformed the peers by 10% and at 23x PER, it is not too expensive considering the rebound potential. 

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Beneficiary of Opening Up

Singapore

ARA US Hospitality Trust is a Singapore-listed stapled trust. It owns upscale select-service hotels in the US.

ARA US Hospitality Trust (ARAUS SP)

S-REITs: Investing In An Inflationary Environment

Suntec, with one of the highest gearings in the office subsector, may need to go to the market cap in hand. That or divest some assets - in what is...

David Blennerhassett

Fraser Hospitality Trust (FRHO): Privatization + Recovery.

The upside may not be much anymore since the bulk of the upside from the privatization news is already priced in but the gross operating revenue is...

Henry Soediarko

SingHaiyi Group (SHG SP): Tang's Conditional Offer

The Offer has not been declared final. I think there's probably enough here to get the deal over the line. I would not chase this much through...

David Blennerhassett

ESR Cayman (1821 HK) Takes Out ARA Asset Management

This looks like a great deal for ESR. But the company looks full here compared to historical metrics. Plus there is an indication of further...

David Blennerhassett

Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT): Beneficiary of Opening Up

ICA announced that Chinese tourists may enter Singapore by applying for Air Travel Pass without being quarantined if tested COVID-19 negative. FEHT...

Henry Soediarko