Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Quantitative Analysis

<p>Following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gamestop-corp-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13790:1" rel="noopener">GameStop Corp Class A (GME US)</a> saga that has been all over the financial press (and is now spreading into the mainstream press), we have been getting questions on names in Hong Kong that could be prone to a squeeze.</p><p>We do not believe that retail players in Hong Kong have the heft that retail investors in the US do, nor are single stock options frequently used (though there is a lot of retail activity in warrants on large cap names), but the pain that is being felt in global portfolios could lead to unwinding in Hong Kong shorts too.</p><p>Some highly shorted stocks in Hong Kong that have seen prices jump today along with volume surge are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technology-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vitasoy-intl-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2807:1" rel="noopener">Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-literature-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24388:1" rel="noopener">China Literature (772 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mtr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13289:1" rel="noopener">MTR Corp (66 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/want-want-china-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:355:1" rel="noopener">Want Want (151 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsonite-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12790:1" rel="noopener">Samsonite (1910 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-real-estate-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26031:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK)</a>.</p><p>We identify more stocks that could be prone to short covering based on short interest as a percentage of issued shares, free float and in terms of days of ADV to cover.</p>

Following the GameStop Corp Class A (GME US) saga that has been all over the financial press (and is now spreading into the mainstream press), we have been getting questions on names in Hong Kong that could be prone to a squeeze.We do not believe that retail players in Hong Kong have the heft that retail investors in the US do, nor are single stock options frequently used (though there is a lot of retail activity in warrants on large cap names), but the pain that is being felt in global portfolios could lead to unwinding in Hong Kong shorts too.Some highly shorted stocks in Hong Kong that have seen prices jump today along with volume surge are Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company Limited (1833 HK), Hang Seng Bank (11 HK), Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK), China Literature (772 HK), Bank of East Asia (23 HK), MTR Corp (66 HK), Want Want (151 HK), Samsonite (1910 HK) and Wharf Real Estate Investment (1997 HK).We identify more stocks that could be prone to short covering based on short interest as a percentage of issued shares, free float and in terms of days of ADV to cover.

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>The recent lockdown in Hong Kong proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk of a lockdown remains. Although it is over within 48 hours, the HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of similar actions taking place in the future. </p>
<div class="content-highlight">
<p>For Long Only Investor - Going long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissin-foods-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26062:1" rel="noopener">Nissin Foods (1475 HK)</a> may not a superior return especially when Hong Kong is in the second outbreak but it will serve as a hedge when another lockdown is proposed.</p>
<p>For Long Short Investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cafe-de-coral-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2568:1" rel="noopener">Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK)</a> is well known to be the go-to tea house for Hong Kong residents thus a lockdown in a few places will affect their business which means slower recovery and their home delivery service is not exactly performing well either. </p>
</div>

The recent lockdown in Hong Kong proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk of a lockdown remains. Although it is over within 48 hours, the HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of similar actions taking place in the future. 

For Long Only Investor - Going long Nissin Foods (1475 HK) may not a superior return especially when Hong Kong is in the second outbreak but it will serve as a hedge when another lockdown is proposed.
For Long Short Investor - Cafe De Coral Holdings (341 HK) is well known to be the go-to tea house for Hong Kong residents thus a lockdown in a few places will affect their business which means slower recovery and their home delivery service is not exactly performing well either. 


HK Lockdown Ideas: Long Nissin Food and Short Cafe De Coral

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

<ul class="">
<li>The consumer sector in China has been a complex and dynamic one, with both consumption upgrade and downgrade going on across different categories and segments;</li>
<li>In the meantime, we see the consumer space as being a decent source for high-quality, relatively predictable Chinese companies;</li>
<li>To enjoy the long-term tailwind of consumption upgrade, investors may need to look for superior returns on capital, signs of an economic moat, stable market-share leaders/gainers, and solid structural trends.</li>
<li>We list our quick picks (three domestic and three overseas) that are hopeful of keeping delighting Chinese consumers in the long run.</li>
</ul>


The consumer sector in China has been a complex and dynamic one, with both consumption upgrade and downgrade going on across different categories and segments;
In the meantime, we see the consumer space as being a decent source for high-quality, relatively predictable Chinese companies;
To enjoy the long-term tailwind of consumption upgrade, investors may need to look for superior returns on capital, signs of an economic moat, stable market-share leaders/gainers, and solid structural trends.
We list our quick picks (three domestic and three overseas) that are hopeful of keeping delighting Chinese consumers in the long run.


Quick Picks that Are Hopeful of Keeping Delighting Chinese Consumers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> is a leader in the packaged drinking water and beverage business in China. Nongfu had the leading market share in the packaged drinking water market in China for eight consecutive years from 2012 to 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Nongfu will commence trading on Tuesday, 8 September. Nongfu priced its IPO at HK$21.50 per share, at the top end of the indicative price range of $19.50-21.50 per H share. Nongfu raised net proceeds of HK$8,149 million ($1.1 billion).</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-ipo-initiation-still-or-sparkling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that Nongfu is a play on the attractive growth of the Chinese soft beverage markets, which is underpinned by the increasing urbanisation rate, the growing health awareness and consumption upgrade. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-ipo-update-points-to-green-shoots-of-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our PHIP update note</a>, we opined that the key negative remains the large pre-IPO dividends with RMB7,800 million ($1.1 billion) cash dividend declared on 14 August. Overall, we continue to believe that Nongfu remains attractive at the IPO price due to a reasonable PEG valuation.</p></div></div></div>

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) is a leader in the packaged drinking water and beverage business in China. Nongfu had the leading market share in the packaged drinking water market in China for eight consecutive years from 2012 to 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Nongfu will commence trading on Tuesday, 8 September. Nongfu priced its IPO at HK$21.50 per share, at the top end of the indicative price range of $19.50-21.50 per H share. Nongfu raised net proceeds of HK$8,149 million ($1.1 billion).In our initiation note, we stated that Nongfu is a play on the attractive growth of the Chinese soft beverage markets, which is underpinned by the increasing urbanisation rate, the growing health awareness and consumption upgrade. In our PHIP update note, we opined that the key negative remains the large pre-IPO dividends with RMB7,800 million ($1.1 billion) cash dividend declared on 14 August. Overall, we continue to believe that Nongfu remains attractive at the IPO price due to a reasonable PEG valuation.

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a> is a leader in the packaged drinking water and beverage business in China. Nongfu had the leading market share in the packaged drinking water market in China for eight consecutive years from 2012 to 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Nongfu has launched its IPO at a price range of $19.50-21.50 per H share. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Nongfu will raise net proceeds of HK$7,768 million ($1 billion).</p></div><div>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-ipo-initiation-still-or-sparkling" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our initiation note</a>, we stated that Nongfu is a play on the attractive growth of the Chinese soft beverage markets, which is underpinned by the increasing urbanisation rate, the growing health awareness and consumption upgrade. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nongfu-spring-ipo-update-points-to-green-shoots-of-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our PHIP update note</a>, we opined that the key negative remains the large pre-IPO dividends with RMB7,800 million ($1.1 billion) cash dividend declared on 14 August. Ultimately, we believe that the extent to which pre-IPO dividends detract from the company's fundamentals comes down to each investors’ comfort level with pre-IPO dividends.</p>
<div class="content-highlight"><p>Nongfu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, we think that a reasonable PEG valuation, a market-leading business and solid cornerstone support makes Nongfu tempting at the proposed pricing range. </p></div>
</div>

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) is a leader in the packaged drinking water and beverage business in China. Nongfu had the leading market share in the packaged drinking water market in China for eight consecutive years from 2012 to 2019, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. Nongfu has launched its IPO at a price range of $19.50-21.50 per H share. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, Nongfu will raise net proceeds of HK$7,768 million ($1 billion).
In our initiation note, we stated that Nongfu is a play on the attractive growth of the Chinese soft beverage markets, which is underpinned by the increasing urbanisation rate, the growing health awareness and consumption upgrade. In our PHIP update note, we opined that the key negative remains the large pre-IPO dividends with RMB7,800 million ($1.1 billion) cash dividend declared on 14 August. Ultimately, we believe that the extent to which pre-IPO dividends detract from the company's fundamentals comes down to each investors’ comfort level with pre-IPO dividends.
Nongfu’s fundamentals offer more positives than negatives. Overall, we think that a reasonable PEG valuation, a market-leading business and solid cornerstone support makes Nongfu tempting at the proposed pricing range. 


Hong Kong

Vitasoy International Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes food and beverages.

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Vitasoy Intl Holdings (345 HK)

HK Shorts: Squeeze-O-Meter

Following the GameStop saga, we try to identify stocks in HK that could be susceptible to a short squeeze based on short interest vs issued shares...

Brian Freitas

HK Lockdown Ideas: Long Nissin Food and Short Cafe De Coral

The recent lockdown in HK proves that unless everyone is vaccinated, the risk remains. The HK SAR government does not rule out the possibility of...

Henry Soediarko

Quick Picks that Are Hopeful of Keeping Delighting Chinese Consumers

The consumer sector in China has been a complex and dynamic one in recent years, with two totally opposing trends (of both consumption upgrade and...

Steven Chen

Nongfu Spring IPO: Trading Debut

Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting (H) (3347 HK) is a global contract research organisation (CRO). Tigermed is the largest clinical CRO in China with a...

Arun George

Nongfu Spring IPO: Valuation Insights

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) is a leader in the packaged drinking water and beverage business in China. Nongfu had the leading market share in the...

Arun George

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