Small and mid-cap Asia, Thematic, Corporate Access, Glorious Day, Ltd.

Glorious Day Asia

Small and mid-cap Asia, Thematic, Corporate Access

Glorious Day, Ltd.

Equity Bottom-Up

Global Wafer (6488 TT): Purchase of Sun Edison Semi (Semi US) will move GWC to #3 global supplier and 17% market share, after Shin-Etsu and Sumco and ahead of Siltronics (Wacker Chemie). Semi wafer prices are set to show a modest rebound on industry consolidation and no material increases in industry capacity. Industry growth and market addressing synergies from the merger offset the lack of initial profit accretion.

Global Wafer (6488 TT): Purchase of Sun Edison Semi (Semi US) will move GWC to #3 global supplier and 17% market share, after Shin-Etsu and Sumco and ahead of Siltronics (Wacker Chemie). Semi wafer prices are set to show a modest rebound on industry consolidation and no material increases in industry capacity. Industry growth and market addressing synergies from the merger offset the lack of initial profit accretion.

Global Wafer Corp (6488 TT): Imminent Industry Consolidation a Positive; Company Visit Note Summary

Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive summary</h2><ul>
<li>DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. </li>
<li>
After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…</li>
</ul>

Executive summary
DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another strong upward spot price trend (over 30% q/q rebound) for DRAM in 4Q16 but a muted NAND spot price. 

After TSMC/Intel guided 1-2% q/q sales decline and AMD guided 18% q/q drop in 4Q16 coupled with likely over 30% q/q iPhone shipment decline in 1Q17, the seasonal softness might mitigate DRAM/NAND spot price rebound starting late 4Q16 and drive a…


Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/015/017/original/IRF_NewsShocks.png?1476919557" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="15017"></figure><div class="content-caption">"News Shocks" to the Japanese Economy (Source: Europacifica)</div><h2>Room for small hope amid bleak Japanese policy reform record</h2>Until now, our analysis of Japanese structural reform, centred upon raising Japanese productivity, has revealed few tendencies that might give us hope of an imminent and conclusive end to Japan's deflationary "lost decades" dynamic.  In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/structural-reform-i-the-japanese-financial-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6375">Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector</a> we examined some of the structural characteristics within the financial sector that were…

"News Shocks" to the Japanese Economy (Source: Europacifica)Room for small hope amid bleak Japanese policy reform recordUntil now, our analysis of Japanese structural reform, centred upon raising Japanese productivity, has revealed few tendencies that might give us hope of an imminent and conclusive end to Japan's deflationary "lost decades" dynamic.  In Structural Reform I: The Japanese Financial Sector we examined some of the structural characteristics within the financial sector that were…

Structural Reform III: Evidence of Bad Luck over Poor Policy

Public Relations and Social Media Manager, Dechert LLP

Peggy Heffner

Public Relations and Social Media Manager

Dechert is a global specialist law firm

Dechert LLP

Dechert is a global specialist law firm.
Focused on sectors with the greatest complexities, legal intricacies and highest regulatory demands, we excel in delivering practical commercial judgment and deep legal expertise for high-stakes matters.

Our work is widely recognized. We have 20 standout practices noted by Chambers Global, including global-wide rankings for arbitration, corporate investigations, anti-corruption, investment funds and life sciences. Named Antitrust Team of the Year, Chambers USA commends our “accomplished group” as “routinely sought after to handle some of the most significant litigation and transactions in the antitrust world.” 

In an increasingly challenging environment, clients look to us to serve them in ways that are faster, sharper and leaner without compromising excellence. We developed a first-of-its kind legal project management department, which uses technology, people and processes to drive efficiency and deliver value for our clients.

We are innovators. Dechert ranked #7 in the Financial Times’ Top North American Innovative Law Firms. Financial Times also recognizes us among the Top European Innovative Law Firms and highly commends World Compass, our marketing compliance service, which offers investment firms advice in more than 100 jurisdictions.

Event-Driven

Fast Facts<ul><li>In the first three quarters of 2016, there were 24 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record of 37 set in CY2015. </li><li>Significant merger investigations through Q3 2016 lasted 9.7 months on average—on par with CY2015, but more than one-third longer than from 2011 to 2013. </li><li>The antitrust agencies filed three complaints in the third quarter for a total of five complaints YTD, also on pace to challenge the record level of CY2015 when seven complaints were filed.</li><li>Scheduling orders related to the complaints filed in 2016 indicate that antitrust merger litigation is taking even longer with 147 days between complaint and the start of trial and 27 days for trial, up 47% and 125%, respectively, from cases filed in CY2015.</li></ul>

 Fast FactsIn the first three quarters of 2016, there were 24 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record of 37 set in CY2015. Significant merger investigations through Q3 2016 lasted 9.7 months on average—on par with CY2015, but more than one-third longer than from 2011 to 2013. The antitrust agencies filed three complaints in the third quarter for a total of five complaints YTD, also on pace to challenge the record level of CY2015 when seven complaints were filed.Scheduling orders related to the complaints filed in 2016 indicate that antitrust merger litigation is taking even longer with 147 days between complaint and the start of trial and 27 days for trial, up 47% and 125%, respectively, from cases filed in CY2015.

No Let Up in Antitrust Merger Investigation or the Duration of Merger Investigations

Macroeconomics

The under-performance of Japan's non-IT sector was our focus last time (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-non-it-industries-overcoming-deflation-not-enough" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:4491">Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough</a> ), where we demonstrated why overcoming deflation alone will not resolve Japan's economic problems.  We observed clear out-performance of the "deflationary" IT vs non-IT sector in terms of productivity.  We then examined the role of Investment-Specific Technology (relative capital vs consumer goods deflation) in productivity growth and found it responsible for…

The under-performance of Japan's non-IT sector was our focus last time (see Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough ), where we demonstrated why overcoming deflation alone will not resolve Japan's economic problems.  We observed clear out-performance of the "deflationary" IT vs non-IT sector in terms of productivity.  We then examined the role of Investment-Specific Technology (relative capital vs consumer goods deflation) in productivity growth and found it responsible for…

Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part II: Japanese Services

Japan

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

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Tokyo Electron Ltd Unsp Adr (TOELY US)

Global Wafer Corp (6488 TT): Imminent Industry Consolidation a Positive; Company Visit Note Summary

Global Wafer (6488 TT): Purchase of Sun Edison Semi (Semi US) will move GWC to #3 global supplier and 17% market share, after Shin-Etsu and Sumco...

Glorious Day Asia

Reasons Why DRAM Price Might Be Better than NAND in 2017

Executive summary DRAM spot price much stronger than NAND's in 4Q16: After over 10% hike in DRAM/NAND spot/contract price in 3Q16, we see another...

Andrew Lu

Structural Reform III: Evidence of Bad Luck over Poor Policy

Room for small hope amid bleak Japanese policy reform recordUntil now, our analysis of Japanese structural reform, centred upon raising Japanese...

Naomi Fink

No Let Up in Antitrust Merger Investigation or the Duration of Merger Investigations

Fast Facts In the first three quarters of 2016, there were 24 significant merger investigations, which is on pace to challenge the record of 37...

Dechert LLP

Overcoming Deflation Is Not Enough Part II: Japanese Services

The under-performance of Japan's non-IT sector was our focus last time (see Japan Non-IT Industries: Overcoming Deflation Not Enough ), where we...

Naomi Fink

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